André Kaspi is a historian and recognized specialist in the United States to which he has devoted numerous reference works. His latest work:
My American Chronicles
(Éditions de l'Observatoire, 2022).
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LE FIGARO. - No stranger to blunders in public, the American president has made a string
of more worrying confusions in recent days.
Are questions about his mental faculties a campaign issue in the United States?
ANDRE KASPI. -
It is obvious that what we know about the state of health of President Joe Biden necessarily has an impact on the electoral campaign.
The prevailing idea – at least in circles hostile to Joe Biden – is that the president is not able to lead an electoral campaign and even less able to exercise power, in the event that he is re-elected.
For what ?
Because his mental health is particularly weakened.
We realized that he was no longer always able to react as he should, even though the President of the United States exercises an extremely heavy role.
However, according to the latest surveys carried out, Joe Biden is not in a position to meet these demands.
Don't these escapades highlight the central weight of the Biden administration and don't they allow us to put the president's role in American democracy into perspective?
Absolutely not.
The President of the United States is of great importance.
It is a regime based on the presidency.
But this does not mean that he is the only one who wields power.
He has around him a numerous and, in principle, efficient administration.
He is at the head of a complex system, established for years and which has grown to its full extent for at least sixty years.
The question that now arises is why, in a system that places great importance on the President, we have not yet thought about replacing him.
Whether by a younger or more dynamic personality, in order to exercise power.
The answer is simple.
It is difficult for Democrats to recognize the situation as it is.
Namely that, on the one hand, Joe Biden is weakened, and that on the other hand the Democrats have some responsibility.
Because they should have looked to the current President of the United States for a successor.
Which they didn't do.
So, for several months, attacks against Joe Biden, regarding his physical or mental state, have been pouring out, without there being the possibility of finding a successor who can exercise his functions with all the necessary qualities. .
It seems that Kamala Harris has been seen as Joe Biden's successor for the next election?
Kamala Harris was, in fact, chosen to be the vice-president of the United States because she had a certain number of qualities, both by her origins but also by her dynamism and the successes achieved in California.
But when she was put in charge of missions as vice-president, she was not particularly attractive.
It was sent to try to resolve the issue of illegal immigration and it produced no results.
So, with regard to Kamala Harris, there is no movement of support from the Democrats allowing this woman – as respectable as she is – to take Joe Biden's place.
When we learn that Joe Biden has not retained all the intellectual qualities that he had when he was younger, the feeling of distrust that many feel towards him is reinforced.
André Kaspi
It is true that the American Constitution provides for the appointment of the vice president as president of the United States, in the event of his death or resignation.
However, putting Kamala Harris at the head of the Democratic Party for the presidential elections would be risky in the face of Donald Trump.
There is therefore little chance – it seems to me and I could be wrong – that Kamala Harris will take Joe Biden's place.
Are Joe Biden's setbacks damaging his image as a “reasonable centrist” in the face of Trump deemed “unreasonable”? Are they helping to demonize Trump?
The situation shows that Joe Biden is weakened compared to Donald Trump.
The current American president has, in front of him, a real public agitator who, for several years, has continued to campaign to demonstrate that the 2020 elections did not produce the most honest results.
This is Donald Trump's campaign.
On the other side is an exhausted Joe Biden.
And when we learn that he has not retained all the intellectual qualities that he had when he was younger, the feeling of distrust that many feel towards Joe Biden is reinforced.
Could they have harmful consequences on American diplomacy?
Not only can it, but it is already having consequences on the domestic and foreign policy of the United States.
There are areas in which Joe Biden has lost – at least some – his influence.
Just look at how public opinion is evolving regarding the war in Ukraine.
Among Republicans, there is growing distrust – not to say hostility – towards a war that the Americans helped finance.
Therefore, in the House of Representatives where the Republicans have the majority or in the Senate where they are not far from the majority, there is today strong opposition to the official policy of the United States towards Ukraine.
Joe Biden's request for a $61 billion credit for Ukraine has still not been voted on.
There is a sort of blockage on the part of the Republicans who consider that the war has lasted long enough and that the Americans have done what they could do.
Now, the idea that it would be more reasonable to entertain the shadow of a negotiation with Russia is growing.
And this is what Trump seems to be announcing.
I can't say that this will happen.
But it does mean that there are real divisions within public and political opinion over the war in Ukraine.
This is not the case for the war in the Middle East or for the defense of Taiwan against a possible Chinese invasion.