Cristina Kirchner understood last year that - for the second time in a row - she would have no chance of winning a presidential election.
She herself said that
the electoral scenario was divided into three parts of similar sizes
and considered - in this case she did not state it publicly - that her candidacy, after a disastrous government in which she was the architect and vice president, could end up in third place. , behind Javier Milei and Together for Change.
Today
the landscape is different
.
It is difficult to find three thirds for several reasons.
Firstly, to accommodate the process in a chronology, Mauricio Macri detected before the runoff that the votes of one of those thirds - those that Patricia Bullrich had obtained -
were migrating
to Milei.
Then, in an epiphany precipitated by the defeat in Congress of the Omnibus Law project, Milei understood that, although he already had the approval and support of a good part of the PRO voters, it
would not hurt him to also make an agreement with the Macrista leaders, technicians and legislators
.
With that idea in mind, he went out to talk about the “merger” with the PRO and to resume a conversation with Macri that he had discarded in November, when the former president
proposed unifying the blocks of deputies and senators
.
At that time, Milei considered that Macrismo had no choice but to support him in Congress and that,
with that support in his bag
, it was better for him to explore an agreement with one of the parties of Peronism.
The fall of the Omnibus Law made the President understand that Macri's proposal could give him
the legislative strength and the administrative
and political experience that his government lacks.
It has already been said that, although it is seen as a natural step, the new agreement will not be enough for Milei to ensure governability.
The sum of the deputies of La Libertad Avanza and the PRO was not enough to advance the Omnibus Law.
Everything indicates that Milei and Macri - if they make their agreement - will have to
try to seduce other sectors
, as part of radicalism or some provincial parties.
But, although that part of the future is still not clear, it can be better seen that politics is no longer fragmented into thirds.
Today there are only two large spaces: the ruling party and the Peronist opposition.
It is true that radicalism and some former Macristas maintain an appreciable weight in Congress, but today it is difficult for them to intervene in the conflict between the Government and Peronism.
Cristina returns in that context.
On her return, in addition to occupying a space as the most notable leader of the opposition, the leader of Kirchnerism
seeks to sweep away the impression
that she had settled for establishing a tacit pact of low-intensity conflict with Milei that could bring benefits to both. .
The President believed that Cristina had let some praise for her political astuteness slip through to complicate her relationship with Macri.
So, it can be assumed that he will be more comfortable with this Cristina working to achieve, as he himself often repeats,
“a more orderly political system”
, with Kirchnerism on one side and Macri and Milei on the other.