On video: Air Force attacks in Lebanon 02.14.24/documentation on social networks according to Section 27 A of the Copyright Law
In view of what is happening on the northern border, one feels like screaming: "Haven't we learned anything?"
Here we are again, just four months ago we swore that we would no longer, from brigands, contain, call the expansion of the shooting circle to Tsfat in terms from the world of plumbing such as leakage, spillage, dripping and more - while it is clear to us, if we remain in this space of images, that all the plumbing needs to be replaced .
For a moment it seemed that the Israeli government also understood this, that removing the residents from their homes and moving them away from the border line was a kind of evacuation-construction plan, at the end of which they would return to a new reality.
And not her.
But in the North there is not only what appears to be an omission, but also a parable - not only about the conduct of Israel, but about the conduct of the entire West, the conduct of everyone who has assets to lose.
This is not a philosophical reflection but an almost Pavlovian reaction of the strong and established, in the face of murderous provocation by a terrorist organization.
The American reaction, for example, in the face of Iran's "offshoots" hitting US army soldiers, was remarkably similar: attacking to show that we did something, but being careful not to escalate the situation into a war.
What is the result? That security strip, as Israel demands, is currently being built Lebanon must not be free of terrorists, but inside Israel, in the form of the abandoned northern settlements.
How dry are the cisterns?
The pedestrian street of Safed is deserted.
A "security belt" is being built within Israel's borders and at the expense of its residents/Eli Ashkenazi
There is nothing new in the West
If you wish, this blanket can be extended to European countries as well, those who want to force us to put out the fire that broke out in our house, in order to keep the bonfire in their backyard on a small fire.
Why?
Because now you must mobilize your citizens, who live a life of pleasant wealth, for an uncompromising fight against a threat that can be ignored, at least apparently.
Even as an Israeli it is difficult to come up with complaints against the West Seven: didn't we ourselves behave in exactly the same way?
We started, we got sick, we messed up - and above all we convinced ourselves that we could feed the monster so that it would be full and not devour us.
What is happening on the northern border shows that not only did we not behave differently before we suffered a blow that is no worse than that, but that even after it, we are able to change our ways only in the specific context of Gaza.
In the context of the northern border, we continue to tell ourselves fairy tales about international interests that end up restraining Iran - and as a result of this, Hezbollah, we cultivate illusions about the existence of Security Council resolutions (which we suddenly care about...) and hope that the problem will be solved and allow the residents to return to their homes.
Let it be said immediately - every resident of the north who returns to his home is one of two: a complete gullible or a fool in love.
Fati who believes that the security reality has indeed changed or the landscape pattern of his homeland that his love for it blinds him so that he does not see that it might open its mouth and swallow him, as happened to his counterpart, a resident of the Western Negev.
On the other hand, the skeptic will ask, what is the alternative other than the Horma war?
And the price of this, in the face of Hezbollah, may cost the lives of thousands of Israelis, on the front and in the rear - because it is clear to all of us that when Nasrallah threatens 2 million, he means that he will attack the other eight million later (the range of his precision missiles also covers the central region. Or in his language: "In favor of Haifa").
Is there a Western leader in general and an Israeli one in particular, who is able to say to his people: "We are now embarking on a war that will have thousands of victims, because if we do not do so, we will find ourselves in a round that will cost tens of thousands of lives?".
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A tunnel in Gaza.
Hamas prefers the residents to be hungry and thirsty for blood.
As long as he is in power, every cent that enters the Gaza Strip will be translated into terrorism/IDF spokesman
Murder is their fuel
The enemy does not have this dilemma.
Take Gaza for example: as the ground maneuvering above ground and in the Hamas tunnels deepens, we agree - what would happen if all the money that was used by the spider's web network was diverted to public welfare?
After all, Gaza could have been a rich and prosperous city!
But this is exactly the catch: a revolutionary ideology, such as that presented by extreme Islam, not only does not aspire to a life of well-being (unless you are the ruler) but rather to the opposite - to poverty that will cause such jealousy that it will make a person think westward (in the case of the residents of Gaza, eastward) And he will believe that all this prosperity is at his expense - and he has no way to achieve it, except by taking it by force.
For years, they believed - and still believe - in the West, that all of this could be fixed through an infusion of funds designed to improve living conditions.
Israel also thought so, but the problem is that a precondition for the flow of funds should be the change of the regime, the jargon, the education and more, otherwise every cent that is transferred into the hands of a radical religious organization, will become another meter of a terrorist tunnel.
Would you say that there is a certain degree of patronage in this?
Well - it seems that at least from this quasi-intellectual position it's time to get rid of it: some countries will have to choose between adopting some of the West's rules of the game, and becoming familiar with its sophisticated weapons.
Straightforward - and anyone who thinks that we should continue with the pretense that the powerful is necessarily also the bad, is welcome to apply for the presidency of Harvard University.
Benjamin Netanyahu.
Likes to think he's Churchill, but will always prefer to mortgage the future to save the present, just like Chamberlain/image manipulation, Jonathan Zindel/Flash 90
Meanwhile, in Israel
Not only in the West - in the USA, Great Britain, Germany and France it is difficult to explain this to the residents, but also in Israel: the farther we get from the horrors of October 7, the harder it will be to explain to Israelis a resident of the center, who lives a good and comfortable life, why his home became a target for Hezbollah missiles and even more so From this - why did his standard of living go back fifty years, just so that a farmer from Ramim could cultivate his apple orchard and his neighbor the Lulan would return to collect eggs. I
mean, it's easy to ask why something more serious isn't being done in the north, but it will be harder to pay the price of an act Such a thing. In order to do something, you need a leader who enjoys the broad trust of the public as a whole, in a broader unity government that is committed to victory - and not to what will come after him.
Do you blame Netanyahu for not dealing with "the day after"? Well, he only deals with the day after! Maybe not in the sense of who will rule in Gaza, but certainly in regards to who will rule Israel.
Netanyahu presented himself quite a few times as an admirer of Churchill, but whenever he was given the opportunity, he behaved like a Chamberlain who would prefer to pawn tomorrow in exchange for peace today. Perhaps this is because he knows not only Churchill's heroism in conducting the campaign, but also what happened to him at its end: the people who admired him for his firm stand until victory, hurried to show him the exit door.
I mean, at least in this sense, not only is Netanyahu unable to be Churchill, he doesn't even want to.
If the Israeli government had even a little honesty, then it would be possible today to look at the residents of the north, look them in the eyes and admit that there is no satisfactory solution: Israel, which longs for a return to normality, is unable to go to war in the north of the country - one that will exact a much higher price than the cost of fighting in the south (And even if we include the loss of life, there is also a limit to what the economy can bear).
The problem is that even this simple truth is not so easy, because we have already learned: in our Middle Eastern reality, every loan of peace today is pledged as a guarantee for the future.
In other words: a return to the existing reality while we tell ourselves lies about Hezbollah not wanting escalation, about a multinational force that will stop it on the day of an order, or about international involvement that will ensure peace, are nothing more than legends whose role is to lull us to sleep, knowing that we will wake up to a nightmare, just like the one to which they have warned Residents of the Gaza Strip on the morning of October 7.
Are we that tired?
The Chief of Staff with commanders at the northern border. Coming soon: Halevi's version of Gantz's annihilation speech/IDF spokesman
matter of time
Israel's dilemma is cruel, it is a choice between bad and worse, between the present and the future - and if that is not bad enough in itself, the indecision puts the decision at the door of the enemy: right now, for example, only Nasrallah controls the height of the flames, only he will decide whether the exchange of fire will develop into a war Really - and in our neighborhood we respect whoever decides, even if it is better for the time being to settle for a limited confrontation with Israel.
It is said that the remaining of the state camp in the government, something that - according to the polls - most of the supporters of this list are interested in, is to curb religious Zionism, that is, to prevent the madness of Smotrich and Ben Gabir from taking over the war cabinet.
But the reasoning should be exactly the opposite - and not only because it is completely clear who has more influence on the government today (see the entry "The crisis" between Netanyahu and Gantz regarding the return of the delegation from Cairo. An initiated crisis designed to serve both: Netanyahu shows determination as demanded by his right-wing while Gantz maintains a position The good man versus the families of the abductees - an addictive game of pretend-conflict, which takes place on the backs of the most unhappy families in Israel), but because in order to help, you don't need a broad government.
On the contrary - a broad government is required to go into battle precisely at a time when the obvious temptation is to stabilize the routine.
On the face of it, the solution is very simple: the establishment of an emergency government for a period of time that will be a compromise between Netanyahu's unrealistic survival ambitions and the opposition's desire to advance them as much as possible.
Let's say for two years.
The addition of Yesh Atid and Israel Beitenu to the government at the expense of the far-right party - to a war coalition that will number nearly 90 members, which is three quarters of the Knesset - and then conducting the campaign with a view not only to the enemy, but also to our friends around the world, who will eventually understand that if The liberal elements in Israel have also rallied around the combat mission, so this is indeed a threat that Israel has no choice but to remove (who knows, maybe in view of such Israeli determination some of them will join the struggle to eliminate revolutionary Islam?).
What are the chances of that happening?
not many
This is a Rubicon that Netanyahu is simply unable to cross: he would rather stake the future of Israel to secure his present, than risk his political future for what must be done now.
Just as he did, well - throughout his entire political career.
What will happen?
The fighting in the south will end within a few months and as a result the war in the north will also wane.
Israel will betray itself again and instead of speaking Arabic, it will try to behave like a Western country:
the residents will be encouraged to return to their homes, the Galilee will continue to benefit from developed domestic tourism, Benny Gantz will give another naive speech about the flowering of anemones and... alas for the horror: the northern version of October 7 will become A wish of "Is?"
to the question of "when?".
More on the same topic:
Lebanon
Hezbollah
Unity government
Benjamin Netanyahu
Gaza war