Édouard Philippe knows it, the road to the 2027 presidential election is still long.
Considered since his departure from Matignon as the favorite of the centrist bloc, the mayor of Le Havre must however try to maintain his leadership three years from the deadline.
Last week, the former prime minister declared in La Tribune Dimanche:
“Competition does not scare me.”
However, over time, opinion surveys and reshuffles, its stature has eroded somewhat.
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In an Odoxa-Backbone Consulting survey for
Le Figaro
, the former prime minister is (still) perceived as being the majority's best candidate for the next presidential election.
Nearly half of French people (49%) describe him as being a
“good candidate”
, one point less than in September 2023. However, Gabriel Attal has made a dazzling breakthrough (+15 points since September) and now claims 44 % favorable opinion.
The two men are well ahead of the other
“heavyweights”
of the Macron camp, Bruno Le Maire (30%), Gérald Darmanin (23%) and François Bayrou (19%).
For now, in the match to appear as the most
“presidential”
, Édouard Philippe retains the advantage.
In addition to being perceived as the best candidate, 40% of French people consider him to be the most
"capable of making a good President of the Republic"
, far ahead of Gabriel Attal (19%).
Regarding
“competence”
,
“honesty”
,
“solidity”
and
“charisma”
, the president of Horizons claims between 32 and 35% of the quotes, each time around ten points ahead of the current leader of the government.
The tenant of Matignon, however, manages to equal his predecessor on
"proximity with the concerns of the French"
(26% each), to be judged more
"sympathetic"
(31% against 29% for the former prime minister), and above all, more
“dynamic”
(45%) than Édouard Philippe.
While the question of how to designate a successor to Emmanuel Macron is on the agenda of the presidential party strategists, 40% of French people favor holding a primary open to all French people
“feeling close”
to the ideas Of the president.
Among Renaissance supporters, the idea is not in the majority (17%), this method of selection being considered by many as a
“losing machine”
.
The Macronist troops prefer the nomination of a champion on the basis of opinion surveys (37%) or the organization of a primary reserved for activists from the Renaissance, Modem, Horizons coalition (34%).
Will Emmanuel Macron, who cannot run for a third consecutive term, try to nominate his heir himself?
In any case, the option does not appeal to the French (7%), nor to its supporters (11%), who are nevertheless very legitimist.
A narrow majority (41%) of French people consider that the president
“will have an important but not decisive role”
in the nomination while 38% think that he
“will not really have one”
.
One thing is certain, in the march towards 2027, relations between the parties of the Ensemble coalition (Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons) risk becoming strained as the authority and influence of Emmanuel Macron diminish.