Hamas leader Sinwar escaped in a tunnel/IDF spokesman
The IDF is currently in the heart of what the military calls the third phase of the campaign in Gaza. It is concentrating its fighting efforts in the Khan Yunis area, an area considered the "capital of Hamas", patches of dense and crowded neighborhoods, high-rise buildings, agricultural areas, but also An entire city built in the thick of the earth, tens of meters underground.
The IDF fights in the area while operating above and below ground, using combat units, which combine infantry, commando, engineering, armor and air units, together with innovative technological capabilities and precise intelligence, which comes Apparently, most of it is from the interrogation of thousands of Hamas prisoners, who are in the Israeli prison.
Somewhere in the tunnels under the Khan Yunis area is, apparently, the senior command staff of the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar. The IDF's combat moves are closing in on them from all directions.
Hamas suffers heavy losses every day of fighting, despite the images of victory it tries to broadcast.
In a video found by an IDF commando force, Sinwar and his family members are seen escaping through the network of tunnels to the various living spaces, which are well equipped and relatively comfortable. Division 98 with the special units is racing against time to reach Sinwar and the abductees, about 134 in number, of whom about -31 According to IDF and Shin Bet publications, they are apparently not among the living.
The IDF's efforts may bear fruit and lead to the death or capture of Yahya Sinwar.
Knowing his personality profile, it would be reasonable to assume that if Sinwar realizes that the sword is very close to his neck, he would rather surrender than meet his death as a martyr.
By the way, it should be remembered that as of the writing of these lines, there has been no contact with Sinwar for about two weeks, his condition is unclear, and if he is still alive, he is busy with his personal survival only.
Preoccupied with survival, and when the sword approaches his neck he would prefer to surrender.
Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar/Reuters
Even if Sinwar is in a world that is all good, or will get there soon, he has already won the battle for consciousness, with the painful blow he inflicted on Israel on October 7, and with the upper hand of Hamas propaganda, which leads world public opinion in Judea and Samaria.
His glory is already short.
Since the connection with him was severed, it can be seen on the one hand, that the fighting units of Hamas operate in less good coordination.
And on the other hand, the negotiations on the release of the abductees are conducted by the Hamas leadership based in Qatar, whose ability to influence what is happening in the Strip is very low, with emphasis on the issue of the abductees.
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will participate in a bloody struggle between those who see themselves as natural replacements for Sinwar.
Muhammad official page/website, News 12
Without the elimination of Hamas leaders in Gaza, the next round is only a matter of time.
IDF forces in Gaza/IDF spokesman
Sinwar's death (or his capture by Israel) will usher in a new era in Gaza, and several members of the Hamas leadership in Gaza are expected to compete for his place, including Muhammad Daf, one of the organization's most brutal murderers.
The Hamas leadership abroad will prefer to choose a successor who is loyal to it and removed from it, unlike Sinwar who set the tone, while whatever happens in Gaza, a bloody succession battle will be waged by those who see themselves within the Gaza Strip, as Sinwar's natural replacements.
Either way, the assessment is that Sinwar's death will not bring about the end of the organization of murderers in Gaza (or in Judea and Samaria). The only option to bring about the total collapse of the organization is through the elimination of the leadership in Gaza and abroad (Qatar, Syria and Turkey), and the complete destruction of the Iranian and Qatari funding channel, which surrounded hundreds of millions dollars a year.
Israel's military achievement in the Gaza Strip has a very heavy meaning regarding the continued existence of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and even in Judea and Samaria, as well as the identity of Sinwar's replacement (if Hamas is not defeated militarily), and Israel's status in the negotiations for the return of the abductees. The military achievements in Khan Yunis and Rafah become more significant Persistent. Without the elimination of Hamas leaders in the Gaza Strip, Israel will be forced to return again and again to military systems against Sinwar's successors.
The author is a lieutenant colonel in the reserves, an expert in intelligence and national security from the political science department at Bar Ilan University
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Gaza war
War of Iron Swords
Yahya Sinwar
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