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President Joe Biden and Jordan's King Abdullah II leave the White House after giving a speech on Monday.
© Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post
The US continues efforts to end the war in Israel.
The Biden government is working on a long-term plan - together with Arab allies.
Washington DC – US President Joe Biden's administration and a small group of Middle East partners are working quickly on a detailed, comprehensive plan for long-term peace between Israel and the Palestinians, which also includes a firm timetable for the establishment of a Palestinian state contains and could be announced in the next few weeks.
The urgency of the effort is directly related to a proposed pause in fighting and the release of hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip, negotiated by the United States, Qatar and Egypt.
An initial ceasefire, expected to last at least six weeks, would provide time to publicize the plan, garner additional support and take the first steps toward implementing it, including the formation of an interim Palestinian government, U.S. and Arab officials said .
Planners hope a hostage deal can be reached before the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins March 10, to avoid worsening deprivation and the tense atmosphere in Gaza.
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US plan to end war in Gaza to be presented: Will Israel agree?
“The key is the hostage agreement,” said a U.S. official, among several American and Arab diplomats who discussed the issue on condition of anonymity to avoid derailing the plan before it is finalized.
But even as those involved in the planning - in addition to the United States, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Palestinian representatives - work to reach an agreement among themselves, there are new fears that a looming Israel's attack on Rafah could push the Gaza crisis into the background and bury both the hostage agreement and long-term peace efforts.
The elephant in the planning room is Israel and the question of whether its government will accept much of what is being discussed: the withdrawal of many, if not all, West Bank settler communities, a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem, the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, and security and governance arrangements for a common West Bank and Gaza.
It is hoped that Israel will also be offered specific security guarantees and normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states that would be difficult to refuse.
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US and Arab allies fine-tune plan for post-war Gaza: Israel's stance unclear
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given no indication that he is willing to respond to Hamas' demands for a hostage deal or his opposition to a Palestinian state.
"Anyone who talks about a two-state solution - well, I ask, what do you mean by that?" Netanyahu said last Sunday (February 11) on
ABC
News' "This Week . "
“Should the Palestinians have an army?
Should they continue to train their children for terrorism and destruction?
Of course not, I say." "The most important power that must remain in Israel's hands," he said, "is the overarching security control in the West Bank area."
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's recent trips to Arab capitals and visits to Washington by the prime minister of Qatar and Jordan's King Abdullah II focused on what Blinken during a stop last week in Doha called "the substance and the sequence of all." "Steps" needed to "find a practical, temporary, irreversible path to a Palestinian state living side by side in peace with Israel." "That's coming more and more into focus," Blinken said.
The circle of supporters of a fixed plan extends beyond the small group of those who work directly on it.
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has publicly expressed his interest in early recognition of a Palestinian state.
The European Union is "reaching out ... to see how we can work together to have a bigger plan that actually focuses on ending the conflict," said Sven Koopmans, the EU's special envoy for the Middle East -Peace process.
“This is a real peace process that should lead to an independent, fully recognized Palestinian state and a secure State of Israel, fully integrated into the region.
Is that possible?
It is extremely difficult, but in the absence of another plan, we are interested in pursuing it.”
Looking ahead to the upcoming elections, Koopmans said it may be helpful for others to share responsibility for ending the conflict.
Skepticism about new US plan for Palestinian state: “It was just a trick”
The countries involved hope to discuss their plans with leaders from Europe and beyond at the annual Munich Security Conference, which begins on Friday.
U.S. officials said the list of measures under consideration includes early U.S. recognition of a Palestinian state - even as elements of political reform, security guarantees for both Israel and the Palestinians, normalization and reconstruction are implemented .
“We don’t want to lose the momentum of this moment by doing this in parts,” said a U.S. official familiar with the talks.
According to the official, there is a desire to know “what it looks like from day one.”
But after decades of failed attempts to bring about a two-state solution, some are questioning the U.S. commitment, especially in an election year in which the Israel-Gaza war and support for Israel have become major political issues.
"The language of a 'peace process' accompanied us for ten years in the 1990s and achieved nothing," said Amr Moussa, who was Egypt's foreign minister from 1991 to 2001 and secretary general of the Arab League from 2001 to 2011.
“It was just a trick.
"If we're going to solve the problem, we're going to solve it today and specifically... there has to be a time frame," he said.
“In my opinion, none of this will matter,” said Khaled Elgindy, director of the Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs Program at the Middle East Institute.
“The talk of statehood is a diversionary tactic.
... It's all just smoke and mirrors.
As long as they don't talk about ending the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, it doesn't matter."
Palestinians on Rafah beach, near the Gaza Strip-Egypt border, on Tuesday.
It is feared that an Israeli attack on Rafah will bury long-term peace efforts.
© Loay Ayyoub/The Washington Post
US considers recognizing Palestinian state: “I would be stunned”
Meanwhile, Elgindy said, the Biden administration has shown little inclination to stand up to Israel, instead "just wringing their hands" and saying, "'We wish you would allow more aid and kill fewer civilians.'
It’s like Groundhog Day (cultural event in the USA and Canada, editor’s note).”
Many believe that only the US recognition of a Palestinian state at the start of the process, even if its final borders and institutions have not yet been determined, could convince the Arab world that this time will be different.
While U.S. officials say some form of recognition is on the list of possibilities, skeptics don't believe it will happen any time soon.
“I would be stunned if they recognized the state of Palestine de jure or de facto,” said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. State Department adviser and coordinator for Arab-Israeli negotiations and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Miller agreed that any promise of Palestinian statehood would be useless without concrete steps and a firm timetable.
However, he doubted that the current Israeli or Palestinian leadership was capable or interested in a “transformative solution.”
“Right now it’s about management,” Miller said.
“It’s not about transformation.
They don't have the leaders who can pull the cart." Both Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas are "more interested in keeping their seats," he said.
Post-war plan for Gaza: USA and Arab countries want to announce draft
Aware of the difficulties of reaching an agreement on both sides, representatives of the countries involved in the planning group have divided the work: the United States is negotiating with Israel and the Arabs are negotiating with the Palestinians.
“The Americans think they can come here and play with us like they are building Lego,” said Tawfiq Al-Tirawi, a member of the Central Committee of Fatah, the largest faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization, which in turn is the base of the West Bank-ruling Palestinian Authority forms.
“If we want to renew our leadership,” he said, “then that is entirely our decision.”
Arab officials stress they are optimistic about bringing Palestinian groups together to form a government of technocrats rather than politicians that would focus on revitalizing the Palestinian economy, improving ownership of security and rebuilding Gaza, followed of elections.
Several Arab officials said Abbas had agreed in principle and could potentially retain his position as head of state in a role similar to that of Israeli President Isaac Herzog.
Participants in the talks put forward their own preferred candidates for other top government positions and debated whether Hamas' political leadership would play a role in a postwar Gaza.
An Arab official said Hamas' political wing should be involved in the talks, although not the future government.
“We need someone there to represent them to make sure they are on board,” the official said.
“If this is not the case and they are not happy about it, we will be dealing with Fatah and Hamas again,” the official said, referring to previous confrontations between the two Palestinian groups that ultimately led to the election of Hamas government power in Gaza.
But if they can achieve two years of stability and prosperity under a revitalized government, the official said, "no one will vote for Hamas at the ballot box."
Claire Parker contributed to this report.
To the authors
Karen DeYoung
is an associate editor and senior national security correspondent at The Post.
In more than three decades at the newspaper, she served as bureau chief in Latin America and London and as a White House, U.S. foreign policy and intelligence correspondent.
Susannah George
is the Washington Post's Gulf bureau chief, based in Dubai, where she leads coverage of the oil-rich Persian Gulf monarchies and their neighbor, Iran.
She previously served as head of the Post's Afghanistan-Pakistan office for four years.
Loveday Morris
is the Berlin bureau chief of The Washington Post.
She previously worked for The Post in Jerusalem, Baghdad and Beirut.
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on February 15, 2024 at the “Washingtonpost.com” - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.