As of: February 15, 2024, 6:54 p.m
By: Lisa Metzger
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The Bavarian State Office for Statistics predicts how the population in Bavaria will change over the next two decades - one region is particularly badly affected.
Munich – The State Office for Statistics in the Free State of Bavaria has calculated how the population in Bavaria is likely to change by 2042.
A forecast that is an important building block for politics and business in order to counteract or prepare for it.
Bavaria's population is getting significantly older
In the forecast that those responsible presented on Monday, February 12th in Fürth, one key message became clear: Bavaria's population is changing primarily in two factors - age and growth.
The age of the residents will particularly play a role here: in 2042, for every 100 employed people, there will be 45 pensioners who are 65 years of age or older.
In comparison: in 2022 this ratio was 100:35.
The average age of Bavarians will rise from 44 to 45.4 years within two decades.
Whereas the number of people under 20 will only increase slightly by 2042 – to 2.61 million.
The proportion of boys in Bavaria's total population remains almost constant: at 18.8 percent today and 18.7 percent in 2042.
Increasing population in Munich – the city is even expecting higher growth
Another finding of this forecast: Bavaria is growing – especially in the Munich metropolitan region.
While around 1.5 million people live in Munich's catchment area today, the Isar city will grow again by 2042.
The Bavarian State Statistical Office expects a total of 1.6 million inhabitants.
The city of Munich itself even assumes significantly higher numbers in its demographic report: the urban development department expects a population increase of 14 percent by 2040 - a total of more than 1.8 million people will then live in the state capital.
The Bavarian State Statistical Office has calculated how Bavaria's population will change by 2042.
The result: two factors stand out.
© Bavarian State Office for Statistics 2024 /Imago/Action Pictures
The experts at the State Statistical Office also expect growth across the Free State.
With an increase of 610,000 people, Bavaria's population is expected to rise from 13.37 million (2022) to 13.98 million people by 2042.
Population growth in Swabia is one of the strongest
There are said to be considerable differences in both the age structure and the growth rate within the administrative districts.
The administrative region of Swabia will be one of the places that will change the most.
This is where the most growth is expected.
According to the State Statistical Office, Swabia's population is expected to increase by 155,000 to 2.1 million people.
An increase of 7.9 percent compared to 2022 (1.95 million inhabitants).
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