A country waiting.
Senegal is hanging on the reaction of President Macky Sall after the decision of the Constitutional Court.
On Thursday, the institution declared unconstitutional the law adopted on February 5 by the National Assembly which postponed the presidential election to December 15.
The presidential decree which modified the electoral calendar, just three weeks before the vote scheduled for February 25, was also canceled.
For the Constitutional Council, the decision to postpone the election has no legal basis because the president does not have the power to postpone or cancel the vote.
With this judgment, the Sages also reaffirm the principle of “intangibility” of the duration of the presidential mandate, i.e. five years.
However, the mandate of Macky Sall, who promised not to run again, officially expires on April 2.
So what will happen between now and then, and even after?
This Friday morning, Senegal woke up in total confusion, still stunned by a historic decision that no one expected.
“Everyone was taken by surprise by the Constitutional Council, which we thought was in the president's pay,” notes El Hadj Souleymane Gassama, researcher associated with Iris.
In this fog, several scenarios are now emerging.
Towards elections in March?
The president can first accept this decision.
“Finally, it is a semblance of an end to the crisis with the potential organization of elections before the departure of Macky Sall.
It is a fragile return to constitutional order and the initial timetable,” analyzes the researcher.
“The Constitutional Court says the law: the ball remains in Macky Sall's court, it is up to him to fix and organize the next elections,” he continues.
The initial date of February 25, however, seems compromised.
The Constitutional Council effectively noted "the impossibility of organizing the presidential election on the date initially planned", given the delay in the process, while inviting the "competent authorities to hold it as soon as possible".
Political scientist Michel Galy, political scientist and specialist in sub-Saharan Africa, is counting on “the month of March”.
For its part, the international community is holding its breath.
The European Union called on Friday “all parties” to respect the ruling of the Constitutional Council and to “organize elections as soon as possible”.
Powerstroke…
Another hypothesis: “Macky Sall is trying to find a sort of subterfuge so that his candidate
[Amadou Ba, Senegalese Prime Minister and heir to the president]
does not lose the presidential election, and therefore we enter into a showdown,” analyzes Michel Galy, who considers this scenario improbable, as does El Hadj Souleymane Gassama.
“We must be wary of any form of prophecy, but I find it very difficult to see in this context, between his loss of credit, international pressure and that of the street, how he could engage in a showdown with the Constitutional Council.
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It must be said that the context was already flammable even before Thursday's decision.
Since the announcement of the postponement of the presidential election by President Sall, which he justified by conflicts over the electoral process and his fear that the vote would provoke new outbreaks of violence, the country has been plunged into a serious political crisis. .
The opposition and civil society denounced an “institutional coup d’état”.
Three students were killed following demonstrations against the government and several dozen people were arrested.
…or dialogue?
The first gestures of appeasement were made, while new calls for demonstrations were launched for this Friday and Saturday.
Since Thursday, 134 members of the opposition and civil society who were imprisoned were released on Thursday and 90 others should be released during the day on Friday, according to figures from the Ministry of Justice.
Souleymane Djim, member of the Collective of Families of Political Detainees, told AFP that “156 detainees were released” on Thursday “and 500 in total should be” released soon.
The sign of the opening of a dialogue with the opposition?
According to Jeune Afrique and RFI, discussions between the government and the camp of Ousmane Sonko, imprisoned opponent, at the head of the Pastef party (African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity) dissolved in July 2023, are even in progress.
“There were negotiations mandated by intermediaries, which both parties seem to refute,” indicates El Hadj Souleymane Gassama, recalling the absence of tangible proof of these exchanges.
“With a view to a peaceful election in a month, these negotiations could lead to a political agreement, the terms of which would be to be determined,” nevertheless imagines political scientist Michel Galy.