As of: February 16, 2024, 9:00 p.m
By: Andreas Schmid
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Hubert Aiwanger wants more.
The Free Voters leader is planning to enter the Bundestag.
But can this work?
“In the north he is rather laughed at,” says political scientist Jürgen Falter.
Bonn and Bitburg will become federal political venues on Saturday.
In the former capital Bonn, Hans-Georg Maaßen wants to present the transformation of the Union of Values from an association to a party; the Free Voters are meeting in Bitburg for their federal party conference.
Both parties have one thing in common: they primarily appeal to a conservative audience and thus want to attack them in the coming elections.
Can this work?
The situation is currently favorable for both parties, says political scientist Prof. Dr.
Jürgen Falter (University of Mainz) on
IPPEN.MEDIA
: “A relatively large number of voters are dissatisfied with the performance of the government and opposition.” The Values Union and Free Voters could benefit from this.
However, Falter doubts whether this will pay off in the long term.
“Whether they shape the party landscape remains to be seen.
I'm already skeptical about the Free Voters.
I would bet decisively against the Maaßen party.”
To date, there have been hardly any serious surveys on the potential of the Union of Values.
In current federal political surveys, the Free Voters are around three percent.
In Bavaria, they achieved their previous record result of 15.8 percent in the 2023 state elections and then formed a coalition with the CSU again.
They also sit in the state parliaments of Rhineland-Palatinate and Brandenburg, with the Brandenburg group acting legally independently of the federal party.
However, the results in other state elections were manageable; the FW has not yet played a major role in federal politics.
Economics Minister of Bavaria and Deputy Head of Government: Hubert Aiwanger.
Can he also lead his Free Voters to national political success?
Falter is skeptical.
© Daniel Löb/dpa
Free voters want to enter the Bundestag: Aiwanger “is convinced that we will move in in 2025”
In the 2021 federal election they reached 2.4 percent.
That should change at the next ballot: “I am convinced that we will enter the Bundestag in 2025,” says party leader Hubert Aiwanger.
Political scientist Falter is skeptical.
He currently does not see a uniform appearance by the Free Voters that can lead to national political success.
“The Free Voters of Rhineland-Palatinate operate differently than the Free Voters of Bavaria.” The party is structured very differently.
“Sometimes they are more left-wing, sometimes they are more liberal, very often they are conservative.
The range is very, very large.”
In the federal election it will be important to draw up a uniform party program in order to appeal to everyone in the country.
A difficult undertaking, as Falter believes.
“It contains an explosive device that will make it difficult to even present a uniform political line within the federal government, let alone pursue it.”
Free voters in the Bundestag?
“Aiwanger is unlikely to have much success beyond the Weißwurst equator”
Party leader Aiwanger is largely responsible for this uniform political line.
The Landshut native only represents Bavaria's interests publicly.
This is not surprising as Bavarian Minister of Economic Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister.
However, it doesn't help to give your party a profile across Germany.
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In any case, Falter thinks that Aiwanger's chances in the Republic are limited.
“Hubert Aiwanger is unlikely to have any success beyond the Weißwurst equator.
In the north he is rather laughed at because of his very strong Lower Bavarian character, both linguistically and in terms of his overall habitus.
I don’t think he can showcase his populist skills the way he can in Bavaria.”
Professor Jürgen Falter (University of Mainz) sees little chance for the Free Voters beyond the borders of Bavaria.
© IMAGO / Hoffmann
The Free Voters party conference will primarily focus on the program for the European elections.
In advance, the party is primarily concerned with one topic: the AfD.
Several state associations are calling for a ban on cooperation with the AfD, as applications submitted to our editorial team show.
The Maaßen party now has fewer inhibitions towards right-wing populists.
“We are basically AfD without Russia,” said a Union of Values member to
Spiegel
.
Falter believes that the new party could possibly steal a few votes from the AfD.
“The Maaßen party is likely to draw the most from the right wing of the Union parties, probably less from the CSU than from the CDU, and votes are also likely to come from the AfD.” Union supporters could also migrate to the Free Voters.
In any case, unhappy supporters of the CDU or CSU seem to have more than one alternative.
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