Harris and Blinken seek to reaffirm the wounded leadership of the United States in Munich

Joe Biden's Administration faces serious crises in international politics, with Congress blocking new aid funds for Ukraine for months;

with a blurred role in the Middle East crisis, where he urges the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu to contain it without any success.

Meanwhile, he continues to arm Israel's forces, with a tense and unstable relationship with the other superpower, China.

And at the same time, his allies watch uneasily the rise and isolationist approaches of Republican Donald Trump.

At this juncture, the Vice President, Kamala Harris, and the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, have landed at the Munich Security Conference, with the mission of reassuring allies and warning adversaries — who observe with a magnifying glass the current difficulties and future prospects—that, according to them, US leadership is and will continue to be there.

“The United States will continue to lead,” Harris said at the end of a speech given in the Bavarian city this Friday, in which she attacked, without naming him, Trump and the isolationism that he promotes.

But there are no objective guarantees that this will be the case, neither for those who want it, nor for those who hate it.

So much so that, regarding the decisive aid to Ukraine, Harris could do nothing but praise the latest package approved by the EU and assure that she and President Biden are working overtime to achieve something similar.

“I know there are questions about what the United States will do. Whether it will defend the rules that have brought about peace and security or whether it will allow them to be violated;

whether he will fight for democracy or accept the rise of dictators,” Harris said, before arguing that the Biden Administration is clear about these dilemmas.

He did so by emphasizing that this is in the national “strategic interest” of the United States, with some twists that clearly tried to defend an international policy proposal that is in tune with the nationalist sentiment on the rise in that country.

Harris argued that the alternative vision, the one sponsored by Trump, is “dangerous, destabilizing and short-sighted, and would weaken the United States.”

No guarantees

However, there are no and cannot be guarantees that this vision will not prevail, and that the United States will maintain its global leadership, whatever judgment is passed on it, as Harris promised.

That is in the hands of American voters and the ability to convince them of a candidate, Joe Biden, 81, of whom a special prosecutor has just said that he suffers from striking memory lapses.

There are also no guarantees about the current crises.

The lack of pressure on Netanyahu's government earns Biden the disapproval of public opinion in many countries.

The paralysis of aid to Ukraine – although it is not the responsibility of the Administration – sends signals to the entire planet, which sees that a well-placed group of Republican legislators under the influence of Trump who obstructs the House of Representatives is enough to paralyze the action of the world's greatest power in the most important war in decades.

In a very revealing episode of the situation, Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican with a history of great support for US global activism and a regular frequenter of the Munich forum, ended up giving in to pressure from Trump by voting against the package. aid to Ukraine and Israel and also canceled his presence at the Security Conference, replacing it on the agenda with a trip to the southern border of the United States.

Putin's message

Trump detonated a real bomb a week ago saying that as far as he is concerned, Russia can do “whatever it wants” with NATO allies that do not spend the mandatory 2% on defense — among them, countries like Germany, Italy or Spain.

From the outside, another Biden adversary, the Russian Vladimir Putin, seemed to want to send another message to those gathered in Munich, with the announcement of the death of the opponent Alexei Navalny.

Harris and Blinken have a large number of meetings planned in Munich with allies and key partners, including the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, to try to calm concerns and advance projects.

Everyone watches.

The financial crisis of 2008, the failed interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq (also, in this case, illegal), the reluctance to enforce the red lines marked in Syria, the dysfunction of its political system and other episodes of recent years have convinced many that US power is in clear decline.

But, at the same time, the US economy recovered and now has a good pulse, it continues to be the cradle of technological excellence, while Washington has orchestrated a reaction to the invasion of Ukraine that Putin clearly did not expect, while it has strengthened ties with allies and expanded ties with others, such as the Philippines.

This balance with lights and shadows is now at stake with the risk of total failure if the United States cannot continue supporting Ukraine or if it shows itself to be neither willing nor able to enforce what it says – containment – ​​in Gaza and to pilot some kind of negotiated solution to that conflict.

The legacy of the Biden Administration is played out on these tables, and around them there is a lot of diplomacy in the hallways of the Bayerischer Hof, the hotel that traditionally hosts the conference, which this year celebrates its anniversary, and the surrounding area.

What comes next, perhaps Trump, is another question.

Everyone is preparing, although perhaps not with the intensity that would be necessary.

That is the central debate among European leaders.

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