Even without a precise measurement, it is possible to venture that the week that is ending was the week with
the greatest presence of Javier Milei in the media,
except for the one that followed his arrival to the Presidency.
Upon his return from the tour that took him to Israel, the Vatican and Italy, Milei spoke on radio and television and spent several hours endorsing statements from different users on social networks and publishing his own opinions, such as his response to the long letter from Cristina Kirchner or her entanglement - with several chapters of crosses and manifestos on social networks - with the singer Lali Espósito.
His trip, in which he combined a controversial decision to move the Argentine Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem with a very surprising - due to the smiles and hugs they exchanged after months of tension - reconciliation with the Pope, was clouded by the failure. of the Omnibus Law and the subsequent clash with the governors.
In these same days, the President clashed with opposition deputies - many of whom
must give him votes for his future bills
- with teachers and once again increased his confrontation with the unions.
Looked at from the outside, you can see a Government that insists on creating confrontations even in places where they did not exist.
However, all that
political hubbub
was accompanied by some economic news that
put the market in a good mood
.
It is true that millions of workers across the country see every day how the purchasing power of their income shrinks due to the combination of very high inflation with practically frozen salaries.
That is indisputable and, in his own way, Milei himself admits it.
The novelty is that the Government managed to isolate the duo of Luis Caputo in Economy and Santiago Bausili in the Central Bank from all that cloud of controversies that surrounds the President and also some of the ministers.
Caputo sat on the cash register and for two months has dedicated himself to the primary objective of cutting the fiscal deficit.
As he did not obtain many of the tax increases that he had requested,
he dedicated himself to cutting budget items
, largely intended to cover expenses in the provinces.
In reserve, there are several national officials who admit that this budget drought, combined with the lack of experience of the new officials, the
hyper-concentration of decisions in the intimate environment
of the President and the delay in occupying positions in different levels of the Executive Branch, Government management has almost completely stopped.
But this situation helped Caputo announce the fiscal balance earlier than was planned.
He did it by hiding debt with the provinces, including the City of Buenos Aires, but he did it.
In addition to the adjustment, the market celebrates with the fall of the dollar and the rise of bonds and stocks the
accumulation of Central Bank reserves
that Bausili achieved in these weeks, which the President estimated at 7,000 million dollars.
Like tax cuts, this accumulation has a flip side.
In this case it was the stoppage of imports.
The third leg of the economic management that has been seen so far is the drop in inflation after the flash in December.
After the slowdown in January, all private analysts calculate that projections will continue to point downwards in February, March and the months that follow.
That will primarily happen, they say, if the Government manages to keep the dollar under control.
The recession -
the flip side of the coin
- will do the rest of the work.
The big question is whether Milei will manage to keep economic management encapsulated - in a fragile but boxy glass box nonetheless - to separate it from the political problems that are multiplying in his government.
Another way of looking at the question is to ask how long the Government will be able to keep under control all the other sides of the measures that the market likes. Will people endure the recession, the paralysis of management and the consequences of the ceiling on imports until the improvement in the economy bring a recovery in income?
How many more months can the prices of supermarkets or London shopping malls coexist with Argentine salaries?