We are facing an irreversible cycle change.
This is the conclusion of the latest report by Abeceb, the consulting firm of economist Dante Sica.
Sica believes that
the economy will fall sharply this year,
around 7% if the rebound in agriculture after the drought is discounted.
This average fall includes a first semester with a resounding collapse of the economy (I don't know if it sounds familiar to you) and a last quarter of the year already growing and with single-digit inflation.
But averages are liars and the recovery thanks to investment in energy, mining and the knowledge industry
will impact the interior and the most qualified workers.
But
regions that depend on domestic consumption
and that have a high dependence on public employment will continue to lag behind.
Sica warns: “A consistent public policy will be needed because there will be sectors that are not going to start with the change of scenario for a long time, even if there is a reactivation.”
These would be the regions with little private employment, high public employment, a strong incidence of social plans and private activity dependent on domestic consumption.
“The need for a consistent public policy to support these sectors until a recovery is consolidated or extended will be the limit to the adjustment that the government wants to implement if it wants to avoid chaos.”
The report assesses that
it is a fallacy that someone who today has a social plan or is an informal worker will be able to quickly resettle in a job in the technological world.
If in the sectors where the worst conditions are today there is no support from the private sector and there is no intervention from the State,
the conflict will extend over time.
In the urban conglomerates of Argentina there are 21 million employed people,
but only 6.6 million are formal workers in the private sector.
Formal and private employment is barely a third of the total.
The public sector is one of the sectors that generates the most employment, only surpassed by Commerce.
In the country there are only six provinces where total formal employment, adding work in the private and public sectors, does not reach 45% of the total number of employed people.
They are Santiago del Estero, Corrientes, Salta, Córdoba, Misiones, Chaco and Jujuy.
The province of Buenos Aires, the richest in Argentina, does not have even half of the workers in formal status.
Blank employment reaches 47.4% of the population.
After twelve years of economic stagnation, the share of formal employment in the economically active population is regrettable.
CABA has 47.8% of formal private employment and is the one that heads the ranking.
The province of Buenos Aires barely reaches 32.3% of formal private work.
Milei, in its strategy, treats all provinces and municipalities equally: while some are benefited by the devaluation and its impact due to devaluations and the collection of royalties - such as mining and oil companies - others are deeply affected by the fall of the consumption, construction and the loss of purchasing power of wages.
The governors are divided by this situation and cannot find a common strategy to confront the government.
One of the “dialogue” governors told
Clarín
that the extension of the conflict over time will end up unifying positions: “For now we are looking at how to resolve the cut in the transportation subsidy and the Teacher Incentive Fund, but there are cuts to plans health and public works financed by multilateral credit organizations are beginning to be paralyzed.”
The governor warns:
"Be careful that the teaching conflict does not light the fuse."