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According to the latest polls, the PP will be the party with the most votes and will move around 38 or 39 seats, followed by BNG (22-25) and PSOE (10-14).
The seats of Vox and Podemos are almost ruled out, and Sumar's entry into the Galician Parliament also seems difficult.
Yolanda Díaz's party has around 3% of votes in several provinces, but the Galician electoral system requires overcoming a high barrier—5%—and that limits her options.
According to my calculations, the party has less than a 10% chance of achieving representation.
The exception among the small forces is Democracia Ourensana (DO), which has to win a seat in Ourense.
Who has options to govern?
The first question on Sunday is to know if the popular party will reach 38 seats to govern alone with an absolute majority.
As the graph shows, the situation is quite tight:
The four private polls (Sondaxe, GAD3, Sigma Dos and 40dB.) have as their central scenario a PP with 38 or more seats.
They see this majority as more likely than the alternatives, but with nuances.
Sigma Two places the PP at 39-41, while the latest poll at 40dB.
for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER, it left them with 36-40 seats, that is, with options to fall short.
The survey that separates itself the most from the rest is once again the CIS, which places the PP in the range of 34 and 38 seats, with few options for a majority.
Can we translate this into probabilities?
For that I have built one of our prediction models.
As I explain in the methodology at the end, I have taken an average of five polls, and then I have simulated the elections 20,000 times, introducing normal errors in the polls.
There are three main possible results: 1) that the PP has an absolute majority;
2) that the majority is from BNG and PSOE;
3) that Democracia Ourensana has the decisive seat to give power to one block or another.
The graph shows your probabilities:
69% of the time the PP will have a majority alone.
That's how often it hits 38 seats in my simulations.
(I have also included Vox's seats here, in the very unlikely event that it wins them.)
In another 25% of the simulations (1 of 4) there will be a majority of leftist BNG and PSOE.
(I have also included the Podemos and Sumar seats here, in the unlikely event that they win them.)
In the remaining 6% of simulations, Democracia Ourensana has the decisive seat
.
Neither the PP nor the sum of BNG and PSOE reach 38 seats, and the small party shifts power to one side or the other.
Remember that the above figures are probabilities: those that each majority has of occurring, according to current polls and their historical accuracy.
What the model says, in essence, is that a PP majority is the most likely outcome, although it only happens 2 out of 3 times.
Their victory is as easy or difficult as seeing a penalty scored during a shootout.
The options for a surprise are 1 in 3… like rolling a die and getting a five or a six.
Another way to look at it is to imagine a tree of alternatives.
Of every 100 possible futures, the numbers above say how many the PP wins, how many the left wins, and how many Democracia Ourensana decides.
What we don't know is which of those futures will be ours.
Finally, I have calculated these probabilities using as a starting point, instead of the average vote of five polls, the estimate of each pollster.
At one extreme, the data from Sigma Dos and GAD3 raise the PP's options to having an 80% probability of majority.
In the other the CIS appears again.
As has happened since 2018, his estimate is more favorable for the left: BNG and PSOE add up to 51.5% of the vote and the PP does not exceed 42.2%.
That is to say, if one pays attention to his estimate without further precautions, the Popular Party would barely have a 20% majority chance and the probable result would be a BNG-PSOE government.
Methodology.
Our calculation of seats results from a three-step process: 1) we start from the vote estimated by an average of the five private surveys —with PP (46%), BNG (29.7%), PSOE (16.2%), Sumar (2.9%), Vox (2.3%), DO (0.65%) and Podemos (0.6%)—;
2) we estimate the vote in each province from that average;
3) we incorporate the uncertainty of the surveys taking into account their historical accuracy;
and 4) we simulate 20,000 elections, varying the votes in each one, and distributing the seats according to D'Hondt.
A more detailed version of our methodology can be read in the description of the
general election model
.
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