As of: February 18, 2024, 5:59 p.m
From: Foreign Policy
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The dam holding back the chaos in US foreign policy is breaking.
A new unpredictability in U.S. politics is having major implications in the U.S. and beyond
The US oscillates between constructive engagement and destructive withdrawal
If Biden wins the election, there could be some hope for stability - at least for now
This article is available for the first time in German - it was first published by
Foreign Policy
magazine on February 13, 2024 .
Whatever next year brings, the world owes US President Joe Biden a debt of gratitude for the past three years.
Against all odds, he has managed to contain the chaos that has long invaded US politics.
But the Biden dam is breaking, and the next year - and probably the years after that - promise to be a whirlwind for US foreign policy.
Last week, the U.S. Senate ended its well-intentioned charade of passing a double-barreled bill that would address the crisis at the Mexican border while also authorizing some $60 billion in much-needed aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia.
A second term in office for Donald Trump could cause great damage internationally.
© IMAGO/Andrea Renault
Despite unprecedented concessions from Democrats that allowed for a much tougher crackdown on asylum seekers, the bill died the moment presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump called it a "great gift to Democrats and a death wish for the Republican Party."
The bill's defeat means chaos at the border is certain to continue, likely boosting Trump's electoral chances in November.
Biden is losing control of foreign policy - other countries are feeling the effects
The failure of the bill was also the clearest sign yet that Biden is losing control of US foreign policy, which other countries are also feeling the effects of.
George Haynal, the veteran Canadian diplomat, wrote last week that "the harsh new reality is that the U.S. political system is rapidly mutating into a far less benevolent partner."
The choice of words is instructive: the problem is not just a particularly evil leader like Trump, but a “political system” that produces scores of similar figures.
It is wishful thinking to believe that US extremism is a passing fad.
The consequences are difficult to predict, and the future can swing back and forth between reassuring normality and shocking radicalism.
At the beginning of March there is another threat of a government shutdown because Congress is unable to pass simple budget laws.
The Senate is trying to regroup to pass standalone support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan without the border provisions, but the prospects in the chaotic House of Representatives are highly uncertain.
Even military support for Israel, an issue that has always been supported by both sides, has been drawn into dysfunction and is now in question.
It has become impossible for other countries to make decisions based on expectations about what the most powerful country in the world will do.
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Unpredictable international political order - the USA could withdraw from Europe
In many ways, we live in the most unpredictable international political order in a century.
In the 1920s, the United States was positioned to assume global leadership, but Congress refused to do so;
the ensuing chaos in Europe and East Asia led to another world war.
Today, the United States is still capable of leading, but it is oscillating between constructive engagement and destructive withdrawal.
Meanwhile, other countries such as Russia and China are actively working to push the United States aside.
For Europe, the best outcome in the next few years may be that the United States, while not actively isolationist, becomes increasingly less willing or able to assume a global leadership role.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine two years ago next week, Europe has emerged as a more cohesive and unified actor faster than many expected.
Earlier this month, the European Union passed its own $54 billion aid package for Ukraine, designed to at least maintain the current standoff with Russia.
There will be a lot of talk at this week's annual Munich Security Conference about the need for Europe to do more, particularly in defense, to make up for U.S. negligence.
NATO as a “welfare client of the United States” - the Republicans are sawing away at the defense alliance
A Trump victory in November would be even more devastating.
JD Vance, Trump's acolyte and Republican senator from Ohio, plans to use his first visit to the Munich conference to accuse the Europeans of "making NATO a virtual welfare client of the United States."
He will warn that even if the Senate can pass another military aid bill, “there is clearly no appetite for more blank checks for Ukraine.”
Many believe Trump will abandon the alliance entirely when he returns to the White House.
Trump himself said over the weekend that he would refuse to defend European NATO allies against Russia if they do not sufficiently increase defense spending.
"In fact, I would encourage [the Russians] to do whatever they want," he warned - a thinly veiled invitation for Russia to attack another European country.
Veteran Europe observer Anne Applebaum said such threats would extend far beyond Europe: “Once Trump makes it clear that he no longer supports NATO, all of the US’s other security alliances are also at risk.
Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and even Israel would realize that they can no longer automatically count on American support.”
Canada and Mexico would also be affected - There could be more war in other parts of the world
The United States' neighbors Canada and Mexico would be no better off.
Trump is reportedly considering a 10 percent “universal tariff” on all imports;
Mexico and Canada, which send about three-quarters of their exports to the United States, would be hit hardest.
They might hope for special treatment under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada deal negotiated by the first Trump administration, but there is no sign of such an exemption;
Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, for example, targeted both Canada and Mexico.
The latter also faces credible threats that the border will be closed again, as was the case during the COVID pandemic.
And Trump has made no secret of his dislike of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
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In other parts of the world, the chaos in the US political system could lead to far more warlike and aggressive policies.
Take China for example.
The Biden administration's most notable bipartisan achievements - the $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act to restore domestic semiconductor production and the $1.2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Act to boost U.S. competitiveness - were motivated by a shared fear of China.
Biden is trying to find a balance - Trump could start economic war with China
The Biden administration is trying to strike a balance;
National security adviser Jake Sullivan said last month that while the United States will continue to compete with China, "we also recognize that the United States and [China] are economically interdependent and share common interests in addressing cross-border issues and the reduce the risk of conflict”.
However, many Republicans are calling for a much more aggressive approach.
Trump has discussed imposing 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports, which would amount to economic war.
A bipartisan Senate committee has proposed a broader range of measures to cut economic ties with China.
Also expect more vocal U.S. support for an independent Taiwan and a more assertive military posture in Asia.
While the United States will likely withdraw from Europe, those in Beijing hoping for a quiet U.S. withdrawal from Asia will likely be disappointed.
A Biden victory could prevent the worst - but the chances are slim
A Biden victory in November would avoid the worst, although it would likely be accompanied by a loss of the Senate that would leave the government even weaker than it is today.
And there would be little certainty that the threat of extremism à la Trump would be averted once and for all.
Barring a landslide election defeat - which seems virtually impossible given the current divide among US voters - the Republican Party appears poised to continue to embrace Trumpism for many years to come.
For the rest of the world, the consequences of the US foreign policy chaos are intolerable: an expensive and provocative military buildup in Europe and Japan, the acceptance of an expanding Russian and Chinese sphere of influence, and a global economy that will continue to collapse.
Other countries will have no choice but to hedge and prepare for a world in which the United States no longer has their back.
If Biden is reelected, perhaps the pieces of the old order can be stitched together until the fever in American politics subsides.
But the chances of such a positive outcome are getting smaller and smaller.
To the author
Edward Alden
is a columnist at Foreign Policy, Ross Visiting Professor at Western Washington University, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of Failure to Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind in the Global Economy.
Twitter (X): @edwardalden
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” on February 13, 2024 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.