As of: February 18, 2024, 6:50 a.m
By: Julian Mayr
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After the very mild February and winter, spring is just around the corner.
A weather expert reveals what the weather could be like in March, April and May.
Munich – Reliable weather forecasts rarely go beyond a few days.
Nevertheless, long-term forecasts, such as what the weather will be like in spring, are very popular.
The 100-year calendar provides such predictions based on supposedly recurring cycles and predicts relatively unpleasant weather for spring, for example.
However, meteorologist Dominik Jung doesn't think much of predictions based on repeating periods: “That's nonsense, it's all far-fetched.
There is nothing scientific about it.” Predictions like those of the 100-year calendar are not scientifically based, says the
DWD
.
But what do scientifically based models predict for the weather in the spring months?
Weather in spring: This is what the weather models say about a possible March winter
The current weather forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the US agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) do not indicate a particularly mild spring, according to meteorologist Dominik Jung.
No extreme deviations from the long-term average temperature are to be expected in March and April, as were observed in February.
Sunbathing at Tegernsee in winter: According to climate models, the spring months will not be as warm as February 2024. © Wolfgang Maria Weber/Imago
Nevertheless, next March will probably be warmer than the long-term average.
This means that longer periods of frost, which did not occur in February, are unlikely to occur in March.
“According to current trends, a real March winter doesn’t seem to be coming,” says Jung on
wetter.net
.
According to the meteorologist, the harsh winter is “slowly but surely over.”
According to the spring forecast, March feels cold, despite moderate temperatures
However, you shouldn't get excited too early.
According to Jung, even a warmer than average March could be perceived as relatively cool.
“At the moment, February is so much warmer than a normal March that even a March that is slightly too warm will still be perceived as too cool,” the weather expert explains to
IPPEN.MEDIA
.
Jung also does not rule out the possibility of a cold air outbreak in the spring months of March and April.
“I hardly believe that things will continue for eight or nine weeks with just warmth, warmth, warmth.
At some point the cold air will come again,” said the meteorologist.
Even if months are calculated to be too mild on average, according to Jung, there can sometimes be “two, three or four cold days”, which are then outweighed by days that are rather mild on average.
Forecasts also see temperatures in April and May above long-term averages
The CFS models currently predict positive deviations from the long-term average for the months of April and May, which are likely to be between 0.5 and 1 degrees in Germany.
As far as precipitation is concerned, April, which is generally known for its changeable weather, remains unremarkable compared to the climate average.
However, in May it could be a little wetter than usual in some places.
According to Jung, snow showers and cold days are also possible.
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This is the CFS forecast
Different models are used for weather forecasts.
The CFS model (Climate/Coupled Forecast System) from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) incorporates long-term observations, historical data, such as the behavior of large-scale weather patterns in the past, and the behavior of ocean currents, explains the meteorologist Young.
Based on this data, it is then estimated whether the weather of a month or season is likely to be warmer or cooler, or more or less rainy, compared to the long-term average.
But whether and when it could get cooler is uncertain: “No one knows at the moment.
And that doesn't appear in these monthly forecasts either," says Jung and adds: "What the weather will be in the morning, in the afternoon, in the next few days, whether there will be rain or snow and how warm or cold it will be on individual days: A climate forecast like this cannot predict that.”
Climate models cannot work miracles, but they were correct with their winter forecast
In the medium to long term, models like the CFS can only estimate whether the average temperature and rainfall of a month or season are above or below the long-term climate average, explains the weather expert.
The models were right with their forecasts for the currently very mild winter in summer 2023.
However, according to Jung, the models are not suitable for specific vacation planning.
Jung also contradicts the assumption that the mild winter should be followed by a harsh spring.
“Meteorologists cannot predict the next season from one season.
Summer doesn’t care what winter was like this year.”
The editor wrote this article and then used an AI language model for optimization at his own discretion. All information has been carefully checked.
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