Nobody stops Netanyahu

Throughout the weekend, the Munich Security Conference has been the theater of discreet dialogues and public messages from many political leaders about the conflict between Hamas and Israel and the destabilization of the Middle East.

In the Bavarian capital, a broad underlying consensus emerges about the necessary roadmap: ceasefire, release of hostages, entry of humanitarian aid in a first phase with, in parallel, implementation of a process that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian State with security guarantees for Israel and the normalization of its relations with the Arab countries.

These concepts have been repeated, with variations, by Arab, European, American or Asian leaders.

What is missing is, beyond words, the will or the ability to convince the two contenders to take that path and, especially, the one who holds a position of strength: the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

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War between Israel and Gaza, live

The Canadian Foreign Minister, Mélanie Joly, summed it up very clearly: “There are many people in international politics who agree on what needs to be done.

The problem is that we don't have a dance partner.

This is why it is essential to reach an agreement that includes the release of hostages and apply pressure on Netanyahu, to distinguish between Israel and the current Government of Israel, to look for allies in Israel who also put pressure on Netanyahu.”

This, meanwhile, is preparing a possible offensive on Rafah, in the south of the Strip, where hundreds of thousands of displaced Gazans are crowded amid terrible human suffering.

Throughout his political career, Netanyahu has consistently rejected the two-state solution and strongly encouraged the deepening of occupation and colonization policies that erode the prospect of a viable Palestinian state.

His current cabinet includes far-right leaders with very extreme approaches.

At the weekend, during the Munich conference, it was learned that it decided not to send its representatives again to the negotiations taking place in Egypt, claiming that Hamas' requests are "delusional."

This Sunday, the Israeli Government announced in a statement its "resounding" rejection "of international dictates regarding a permanent agreement with the Palestinians."

“The agreement, to the extent reached, will be made solely through direct negotiations between the parties, without preconditions,” the statement added.

Many analysts consider that Netanyahu has a personal interest in preventing the conflict from calming down, because this would eliminate the emergency situation that guarantees him remaining in power.

The Qatari Prime Minister, Mohammed al Thani, said in the Bavarian capital that the development of the negotiation, in which his country is closely involved, follows a "not very promising" path.

In Munich, the president of Israel, Isaac Herzog, held a meeting with Al Thani, which he defined as “a good discussion,” recognizing “the great effort” by Qatar to find solutions.

Isaac Herzog, president of Israel, and Olaf Scholz, chancellor of Germany, on Saturday in Munich.

RONALD WITTEK / POOL (EFE)

Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said in the Bavarian capital that he believes Netanyahu “will continue the war throughout the year,” in a reference that seems to point to an alleged willingness to insist on a possible victory in the US elections for Donald Trump. , even more favorable to Israel's interests than the Joe Biden Administration.

This, as

The Wall Street Journal

recently reported , plans to supply a new important delivery of weapons to Israel while in its public statements it asks for restraint.

Opposition but with the same objective

“Look, I am a clear political opponent of Netanyahu, but I share the strategic objective of eliminating Hamas,” Tzipi Livni, former Foreign Minister of Israel, said in Munich in the same panel in which the Canadian Foreign Minister spoke. , evidencing how difficult it is to find allies in Israel to pressure Netanyahu at this time.

Livni tried to show how Hamas is an actor with whom it is not possible to negotiate a peace.

“He does not accept Israel's right to exist and is a terrorist organization that deliberately aims to kill civilians.

It is immoral to compare it with the action of the Israeli Armed Forces, which strives to avoid civilian casualties,” he said.

The death toll in Gaza since October 7, according to Palestinian sources, now stands at 29,000 dead, most of them women and minors.

The destruction of infrastructure in the Strip is immense.

The humanitarian aid entering the territory has once again fallen to ridiculous proportions, estimated in Munich in the order of dozens of trucks, when it is estimated that around 500 are needed daily.

Of course, the weakness of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and the radicalism of Hamas mean that the Palestinian side also lacks an adequate “dance partner,” in the metaphor used by the head of Canadian diplomacy.

Shtayyeh deflected questions about the ANP's patent ineffectiveness, accusing Israel of systematic action to weaken it.

She also blamed him for the lack of elections in Palestine for almost two decades, recalling that Israel prevented voting in East Jerusalem in a fake election a few years ago.

“Here the issue is not the ineffectiveness or lack of reforms of the ANP.

Let's not look at the symptoms, let's look at the root.

The problem is the occupation,” she said.

Russia call

Shtayyeh reported a significant political movement from Russia, which he said has called “all Palestinian parties” to a meeting in Moscow on February 26.

“We'll see if Hamas goes.

We are prepared to work.

We need Palestinian unity,” said Shtayyeh, who however stressed that something else is the prospect of integration within the PLO, for which political criteria must be met that Hamas does not meet.

The Palestinian prime minister maintained that there are currently no communications between Fatah and Hamas, which severed relations amid a violent conflict after the 2006 elections, which Hamas won.

Russia thus seems to be trying to integrate itself into a mediation activity in which, until now, the United States and several Arab countries have played a leading role.

The European Union, for its part, sees its effectiveness on this issue undermined by internal divisions.

The high representative of Foreign Affairs and Security of the EU, Josep Borrell, recognized in Munich that, although there is a shared will regarding the objective of the two States, the group suffers from “dispersion of initiatives”, with several actors “who want play their own game.”

Spain and Ireland have asked to study the possibility of reviewing relations with Israel if a breach of human rights obligations is detected, but the initiative is seen more as a political gesture than as an action with great possibilities of real progress.

The Spanish Foreign Minister stated in Munich that “security for Israelis and hope for Palestinians are inseparably intertwined.

The hope for Palestinians is a state that includes the West Bank and Gaza, connected by a corridor and governed by a single Palestinian Authority.”

The reference to the corridor is especially controversial from the Israeli point of view.

The interventions in Munich by US Vice President Kamala Harris and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized Israel's right to defend itself.

They did not explicitly express or hint at a willingness to substantially increase pressure on Netanyahu's government if its military offensive continues to cause civilian suffering that President Biden has described as excessive.

In the absence of greater pressure, Netanyahu is preparing a new phase of the offensive aimed at the Rafah area.

The foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan insisted in Munich that their countries will not accept a forced displacement of Gazans to their territories.

The Palestinians, of course, don't want it either.

They remember that when they left their lands seven decades ago they were never able to return.

But in Gaza there is nowhere else to go.

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