The claim by Spain and Ireland to Brussels to review the association agreement that links the European Union with Israel - which generates trade exchanges of 63,000 million euros - for its violations of human rights in Gaza has once again put the focus on the tools at the EU's disposal to pressure Israel.
In addition to the potential suspension of the agreement, the Union has other levers such as diplomatic pressure on the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu;
the demand for a ceasefire;
the arms embargo of the Member States that send them;
the recognition of the Palestinian State by the Union;
or the imposition of sanctions, for example, on violent settlers in the West Bank, as the Foreign Action Service (EEAS) proposed in December and the United States and France have already done.
Israel's offensive on the Strip in response to the Hamas attacks of October 7, in which 1,200 people died and 240 were kidnapped, is one of the most divisive issues within the EU.
And not even the terrifying number of Palestinian civilian deaths in the offensive on Gaza has led to a common call for a ceasefire – the Twenty-Seven, for the moment, are asking for “humanitarian pauses” – due to the opposition of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Austria.
The Union, which is criticized for its limited role as a geopolitical actor in the Middle East, has instruments to try to push Netanyahu towards de-escalation.
But he doesn't use them.
Some voices are already talking about a moral and strategic failure of the EU.
These are some of those hypothetical pressure levers:
Review the EU-Israel association agreement.
The heads of Government of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, and Ireland, Leo Varadkar, demanded on Wednesday in a letter to the European Commission that it analyze the agreement that unites the Twenty-Seven with Israel due to the violations by the Israeli army of international humanitarian legislation in Gaza.
Putting this agreement on the table – which highlights that respect for human rights and democracy are essential elements in relations with the associated State – represents one of the greatest forms of pressure from the EU, explains Muriel Assemburg, from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Even the threat of suspending it is already a tool.
However, it is difficult for this suspension to materialize.
Spain and Ireland lead a group of countries critical of Israel's actions in Gaza and the massacres of civilians.
Another group, formed by Hungary, the Czech Republic, Austria and also Germany, opposes measures on Israel.
The European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, who has shown herself to be close to the Jewish State, and the high representative for Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, who is very critical of the violations of human rights by the Israeli army, can propose to the European Council ( Member States) the suspension of the treaty, according to European legislation.
But this is an element of foreign policy, so it is the EEAS that has the powers.
Its legal services are now analyzing how to act after the letter.
Unanimity of all 27 member states is required to approve a complete suspension.
Suspending some of the commercial clauses can be achieved with a qualified majority, according to community sources.
The matter may have little progress, however, if the EEAS determines that a report must be made on Israel's violations that may contravene the treaty, signed in 2000. This text will once again be a point of friction for the Twenty-seven.
Stop the fire.
The EU has called on Israel this Saturday not to attack Rafah, as it is preparing to do, and, once again, has demanded that Netanyahu protect Palestinian civilian lives.
The Union moves in a precarious balance, since it has not achieved a common position to demand a ceasefire from Israel.
This would be another lever of pressure that would clearly emphasize the need to stop the massacres.
For now, the countries closest to Netanyahu oppose this demand and remain with the formula of “humanitarian pauses.”
Despite the more than 28,000 deaths, they believe that a ceasefire would deprive Israel of its right to defend itself and capture Hamas leaders, Martin Konecny, director of the European Middle East Project (EuMEP), points out in an analysis.
Diplomacy.
Speaking more forcefully about the massacres of civilians and the critical humanitarian situation in Gaza, clearly condemning settlement policies, promoting debate in international circles, committing not to improve relations with Israel and working for the day after the war are diplomatic formulas that can also act as a pressure tool, according to the analyst from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
“The EU is not using the mechanisms at its disposal and that is due to a lack of unity,” notes Assemburg.
Another of these tools is to increase support for the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice, which is handling South Africa's case against Israel for accusations of genocide against the Palestinian population, diplomatic sources point out.
Sanctions.
Restrictions on entry to community soil and the freezing of assets of individuals and companies is the EU's most common pressure formula.
The community club has already imposed 12 rounds of sanctions on Russian entities and individuals involved in maintaining and expanding the war effort against Ukraine.
The Foreign Ministers of the Twenty-seven have studied the EEAS proposal to sanction fifteen violent settlers in the West Bank.
But opposition from Prague and Budapest has prevented this.
Arms embargo.
The head of European diplomacy spoke on Monday about restrictions on the shipment of weapons to Israel.
Borrell raised it as a question of “logic”, and not only of the members of the EU, but also of the US and the United Kingdom, in the face of the massacre of Palestinian civilians.
The EU, as such, does not send weapons to Israel nor does it have military support programs such as those it has launched for Ukraine.
However, its member states can do so.
Although EU arms export policies require stopping transfers of lethal material when there is a risk of contributing to violations of international humanitarian law, European partners such as Germany and the Netherlands have continued to send weapons to the Israeli army, explains Konecny.
Meanwhile, a court in the Netherlands has ordered the Government to stop sending F-35 aircraft parts to Israel because it "does not sufficiently take into account the consequences of its attacks for the civilian population."
Recognition of the Palestinian State.
Nine EU countries recognize the Palestinian State: Malta, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Sweden, Romania, Bulgaria and Poland.
Despite this, some of these governments, such as the Hungarian and Czech governments (where recognition occurred in 1988; before the fall of the Iron Curtain as in most of the Eastern partners), are very close to Netanyahu, who does not accept the long-approved two-state solution.
The idea of a group of countries, including Spain, is to work so that this recognition is expanded and done at the European level.
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