At the end of the month, the local elections will be held, after being postponed due to the war.
In anticipation of them, many polls have been conducted in recent weeks, at the initiative of the contestants, the involved parties and the moderate media. A number of prominent trends can be identified. A
decrease in voting rates
. The polls show that there has been an average decrease of 10%-20% in the intention to come and vote in the upcoming local elections, compared to polls conducted on the eve of the war.
Today, many are not interested in local politics, the contestants and their messages, being disturbed by the security situation, the loss of the sense of security and the attempts to return to the routine course of life.
The public and political involvement, which was influenced in the past by the legal reform and the protest, has now been replaced by local political indifference.
Reduced campaigns
The events of October 7, the increased recruitment, the amount of casualties and the continuation of the war, caused a significant reduction in the campaigns and their scope.
The campaigns suffer from a lack of time, a lack of resources and, as mentioned, a lack of public interest and attention.
In many localities, especially in the localities surrounding Gaza or on the northern border, such campaigns are not conducted at all.
Surveys that examine, among other things, the effectiveness of campaigns, are completely unnecessary in this context.
Relatively prominent campaigns are nevertheless conducted in places where the number of contestants is relatively large (Haifa, Ariel and Ashdod), when the incumbent head of the authority is perceived as weak (in Haifa, Beer Tovia, Holon, Yeruhem, Ashdod, etc.), or when the incumbent is not a contestant at all (in Ariel, Ma'ale Adumim , Lachish, Yakneam, Ramat Hasharon, Rosh Ha'Ein and more).
Local election cards/image processing, Eyal Margolin, Olivier Fitosi/Flash 90
Wars strengthen incumbent mayors
More positive campaigns
The war and its consequences, the number of casualties, the abductees and the general atmosphere, often cause the raising of quiet, moderate and generally more positive campaigns.
The external conflicts, with Hamas and Hezbollah, and the internal conflicts, between the "tribes" in Israeli society, are not currently reflected in the local election system, at a time when there are many calls for internal unity, when the campaign signs were replaced by pictures of the abductees.
Strengthening the incumbent heads of authorities
The war, similar to other major crises, including natural disasters or epidemics, often strengthens the incumbent heads of authorities.
The eyes are on them, the public observes the known leaders and their voice is heard in giving instructions and instructions.
Some of them are often interviewed by national and not only local media (Alon Davidi from Sderot, Giora Zaltz from the Upper Galilee, Moshe Davidovitz from Mata Asher, Gadi Yarkoni from Eshkol or Tamir Aidan from Negev Fields), and if there are failures or omissions at the national level, the blame is usually directed to the national leadership and not the local
The strengthening of the incumbents will cause, among other things, their smaller turnover rates in the upcoming elections.
The strengthening of the securityists
The war strengthens the contestants, incumbents or others, who are identified with the security agenda, some due to the geographical proximity and the direct involvement of their residents, and some by raising issues relevant to the agenda (building a perimeter fence, placing barriers, the entry of the Shebahim or the establishment of standby classes) And some of them due to their past and personal experience in the security forces. The security dimension in an election system is therefore more of an "asset" than a "burden".
Prof. Yitzhak Katz, CEO of the Brain Pool Research Institute/Courtesy of those photographed
Lack of attention to local politics
Damage to new candidates and recruits
Many of the candidates who are not currently in office are adversely affected by the events of the war, the atmosphere and the lack of public attention to local politics, when new candidates need more exposure and the ability to convey their messages.
Some of the candidates and activists were recruited for a long period of time (Yron Rosenthal from Gush Etzion, Uri Kellner from Golan, Dor Harlap from Givat Shmuel or Aharon Hinman from Givat Ze'ev) and were denied the ability to run a campaign.
In December, it was announced that nearly 4,000 candidates and activists on various lists are being recruited, including about 70 candidates for the head of the Authority.
The war weakens both the new candidates and the recruits, when in many cases it is the same population.
Physical injury and mental resilience
The war takes its toll on the soul, even among politicians: the late Ofir Liebstein, who was head of the Shaar HaNegev council, and the late Tamar Kedem-Siman Tov, who ran for the Eshkol regional council.
It can be assumed that even among the thousands of contestants and activists in the various authorities and lists there are many casualties, physically or mentally.
The general public longs for assistance in the fields of mental resilience, including its elected officials.
The war therefore has a direct, and particularly painful, effect.
The postponement of the local elections
After the postponement of the elections planned for the month of February this year, there will be another postponement to the month of November this year, in 14 municipalities located in the surrounding settlements or in the north, most of whose residents have evacuated.
This postponement will help the incumbent heads of authorities, who are identified with the security agenda, and will harm others who will have difficulty mobilizing resources and persisting in exposure and action over time.
Pushing the legal reform and protesting
what was until October 6th is almost irrelevant after October 7th.
The war and its effects completely pushed the "old" issues from the public agenda, both in the national and local arenas.
Accordingly, there is no mention of these issues in the campaigns that have been going on for the past few months and the polls also show the change in the agenda.
Between local elections and national politics
among the politicians there is a debate on the question to what extent the local elections constitute a "preliminary game" or a "pilot" for the national elections.
It is still too early to draw conclusions and we must wait for the results of the local elections, but it seems at this stage that the relationship is relatively weak.
Although the polls show that there are candidates identified with the Likud whose status has worsened, some even earlier due to the legal reform and the protest, but many players in the system are running on independent lists and are not clearly identified with any parties.
The uncertainty regarding this effect also stems from the expectation of the entry of new players, new parties or new connections, into the national arena, when most of them currently have no connection to the local arena and therefore the connection between the various systems is extremely weak.
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