The president of the Popular Party, Alberto Nuñez Feijóo, during a rally held in Outeiro de Rei (Lugo) in support of Alfonso Rueda's candidacy for the presidency of the Xunta./ ÓSCAR CORRAL (EL PAÍS).ÓSCAR CORRAL
The surprising turn of the PP on the Catalan issue in the final stretch of the Galician election campaign has unleashed all kinds of theories.
The most widespread is
controlled blasting
.
That the party, sending the message that it would be open to studying a conditional pardon for Carles Puigdemont, wanted to prepare the ground for the risk that the former Catalan president who fled to Belgium would carry out his threat – “Everything will be known” – and pull the rug. about the discreet conversations that Junts had with the PP last August.
However, the source from the party leadership who transmitted that information to 16 journalists on Friday the 9th - among which was EL PAÍS - has denied that theory to the popular leaders with whom he spoke afterwards.
He told them that he had no intention of sending “any message to Junts, or to anyone,” and that everything came down to “talking for the sake of talking” in a relaxed atmosphere, according to one of them.
Does not matter.
As a consequence of the political fire that this skid caused, the Galician elections of February 18 have become a plebiscite on the leadership of Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
The leader of the PP has to overcome the
Ides of February
, which have not brought good omens to the PP in the most recent past.
On February 18 like this on which Galicians are going to vote, two years ago, Pablo Casado made the fatal mistake that ended his political career.
The then leader of the PP went that day to a friendly station, Cadena Cope, to launch an accusation that would end up becoming his epitaph.
Casado shot at her party partner and internal rival, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, accusing her of having contracted irregularly with her own brother in the middle of the pandemic.
What happened next is history.
The dizzying defenestration of the PP leader was completed only five days later, on February 23, 2022, with the party barons deciding well into the early hours of the morning on Génova Street that Casado would resign from the command post and that the then president of Galicia, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, assumed the helm.
Two years later, the Galician baron whom everyone looked to to save the party in those moments of anxiety faces a test of survival.
Feijóo himself seems to be aware that the waters of the PP could be stirred a lot if this Sunday the party loses the Xunta de Galicia.
In the conversation with the 16 journalists that sparked the controversy, the source from the PP leadership left unanswered the -repeated- question of what will happen to the party if they lose Galicia.
The leader knows that he is risking it because several factors coincide: that he is examining himself in his land, a historical fiefdom of the PP;
that he has had an intense involvement in the campaign and that he has insisted on playing it on a national level.
To which has been added, in the last week, the setback regarding the pardon for Puigdemont that has fully impacted the expectations of his candidate, Alfonso Rueda.
But what scenario would open up for the party if the PP loses power in Galicia?
“It would be an element of important internal distortion, there would be many doubts,” responds one of the most influential regional presidents within the party.
“It would be tremendous for the PP,” he ventures, “but I don't think Alberto will be forced to leave.”
Other regional presidents of the PP from decisive territories in a hypothetical internal battle believe that, after the fiasco of the general elections, these elections are for Feijóo a
match ball
(match point) and furthermore, whatever the result, it will have a bitter taste.
“The problem for Feijóo is that if we lose, a major crisis would open;
But if we keep power, in reality we stay the same.”
In the event of electoral failure, PP veterans anticipate an internal “mini crisis” and “a questioning of Feijóo's leadership,” but they rule out forcing a change to another leader.
“Unless he decided to leave,” analyzes a leader with responsibilities at different stages, “I am sure there would also be a closing of ranks.”
“We cannot afford to open ourselves up again,” he emphasizes.
This veteran points out as key that there is not even a clear alternative leadership to Feijóo.
“We would go to a confrontation between the two souls with a fight between Isabel Díaz Ayuso and Juanma Moreno.
“We govern in many places and we cannot afford it,” he says.
What he does expect in the game is that Feijóo will be asked for changes.
And what no one can rule out in the event of a fiasco in Galicia is a
delayed political death of the popular leader,
with a dispute over the leadership for the candidacy of the next general elections.
But for this scenario to open up, successive electoral defeats and a sharp drop in the PP's population would be necessary, according to the different sectors.
For its part, the all-powerful Madrid PP of Isabel Díaz Ayuso - to whom all eyes would be directed if Feijóo loses this Sunday - predicts that the party will resist in Galicia.
The Madrid PP strategists maintain that Rueda will win 40 seats (two more than the absolute majority) and that the slippage of the conditional pardon for Puigdemont may influence Vox to grow, but not to cause an electoral disaster for the PP.
This is so, they defend, because the strength of the Popular Party is the rural vote and the debate on the amnesty "is essentially an urban debate."
Now, in the PP of Madrid they consider that Feijóo, "who had already achieved rhythm and solvency, now has to start over again."
Whatever happens this Sunday, the first to speak out will be Isabel Díaz Ayuso.
The Madrid president will appear at an informative breakfast that she has already committed to on Monday the 19th at 9:30 in the morning.
Just two years ago, before the Ides of February, she emerged victorious.
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