As of: February 19, 2024, 5:00 a.m
By: Bettina Menzel
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Tipping points reached?
A computer model predicts the collapse of important ocean currents.
In parts of Europe, temperatures could drop by 15 degrees.
Utrecht – Researchers at Utrecht University in the Netherlands are sounding the climate alarm: Apparently the system of ocean currents in the Atlantic is facing a “devastating tipping point” – with dramatic effects on the climate.
The currents are considered to be Europe's air conditioning system, and a drastic drop in temperature could result.
New study: These are the effects of global warming on Atlantic currents
View of the water of the Atlantic.
Climate change could have dramatic consequences for the currents in the Atlantic - and thus also disrupt the mild climate in Europe.
© Imago/Douglas Graham/WLPInc.
/ Newscom World
Thanks to complex computer models, it was possible for the first time to develop an early warning signal for the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), according to the study.
To put it simply, Amoc is a complex system of ocean currents that, among other things, regulates global temperature.
Part of this system is, for example, the Gulf Stream, which transports warm water from the Gulf of Mexico towards Europe like a conveyor belt.
The mild climate on our continent comes from this balance.
The flow system has also been able to partially compensate for the consequences of human-caused global warming - at least so far.
About the study
The data basis of the study “Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course” was the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean and a simulation of the changes over one Period of 2000 years based on computer models.
The study by authors René M. Van Westen, Michael Kliphuis and Henk A. Dijkstra was published on February 9, 2024 in the scientific journal
Science Advances
.
Link to the study
“Bad news for the climate system and humanity”: Researchers warn of changes in the Amoc system
The researchers have now come to the conclusion that the Amoc system is on the verge of an abrupt change.
The data shows that Amoc is currently in its “weakest state in over a millennium,” the scientists said.
“This result differs significantly from previous model simulations,” it continued.
The consequences: The ocean, atmosphere and sea ice strongly influence the regional climate around the world.
“This is bad news for the climate system and humanity because until now it could be assumed that the AMOC tipping behavior was only a theoretical concept and that the tipping behavior would disappear once the entire climate system with all its additional feedbacks was taken into account.”
Europe particularly affected by flow collapse
Europe in particular is affected by the change, the authors write: “The European climate changed significantly after the collapse of the AMOC, while in other regions only certain months change significantly,” the authors write.
In the northern hemisphere it will be significantly cooler after the collapse.
There is a rapid cooling of the European climate with temperature trends of more than three degrees per decade.
“In several European cities, temperatures are falling by 5 degrees Celsius to 15 degrees,” said the researchers about the change per decade.
Calculated over individual months, temperatures could fall even more in some cases.
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These are extreme values.
For comparison: global temperatures have risen by around 1.5 degrees since the pre-industrial era.
According to the EU climate change service Copernicus, the temperature was recently permanently at this value over a period of twelve months for the first time.
“Compared to the current trend in global mean surface temperature (due to climate change) of around 0.2 degrees per decade, no realistic adaptation measures can deal with such rapid temperature changes,” the Dutch researchers concluded.
In short, change is apparently happening too quickly to be able to respond adequately.
Sea levels in the Atlantic could also rise and flood coastal cities.
This is how the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc for short) works.
In addition to heat, ocean currents also transport nutrients and salt around the globe.
This is made possible by the so-called thermohaline circulation, which works through differences in the salinity and temperature of the water.
These factors affect the density and thus the movement of the water masses: the cooler and saltier the water becomes, the heavier it becomes and therefore sinks.
The circulation connects four of the planet's five oceans to form a global conveyor belt.
Precipitation, but also melting ice, such as the Greenland ice sheet, has an influence on the salinity of the oceans.
Global warming is encouraging the melting of ice sheets.
Scientists warn about the speed of the change: “It will be devastating”
The study results are reminiscent of the plot of the Hollywood blockbuster “The Day after Tomorrow,” which was released 20 years ago.
In the film, politicians ignore researchers' climate change warnings.
As a result, the whole world suffers from an extreme cold snap, and penguins suddenly feel at home in New York City.
While in the Hollywood film there are only a few weeks left until the ice age begins, in reality humanity has a little more time.
How long exactly is unclear.
There is not yet enough data to say whether the tipping point will occur in the next year or next century, the Dutch researchers said.
Either way, quick action is necessary.
“What surprised us was the speed at which the change occurred,” say the scientists at Utrecht University.
Like the researchers in the film, they also issue the warning: “It will be devastating.”
Numerous other studies had previously warned of the collapse of the Gulf Stream and the consequences.