We all are.
But Mrs. Buch's concerns should worry us even more.
After all, this senior official of the European Central Bank has recently been put in charge of the very delicate task of regulating banks and other financial entities on the continent.
As we know, every so often an economic crisis breaks out, causing many to lose their savings and forcing banks and governments to take highly unpopular measures.
While the focus of Ms. Buch and her team's banking supervision is in Europe, the international financial system is so interconnected that decisions by European regulators will affect banks around the world.
And to their clients.
A few days ago, in her first public speech, Claudia Buch warned that banks are not immune to “unexpected events” and new risks: “Many of the issues that dominate the headlines today were inconceivable a decade ago.”
The official insisted that "there is high uncertainty regarding the impact that geopolitical conflicts, climate change, demographic trends and digitalization will have and that they are already forcing us to change the way we produce and consume."
To do?
“Complacency is not an option,” said Ms. Buch, adding “we live in uncertain times.
But resignation or fear are not good guides for dealing with uncertainty.”
Is right.
But while complacency may be a temptation for politicians, bankers or businessmen, it is not for the hundreds of thousands of people who every day, in some city in the world, take to the streets to protest, block avenues and roads, to “occupy” both public and private spaces.
Street protests have always existed, but they have become increasingly frequent and their motivations more varied.
We know this thanks to Thomas Carothers and Brendan Hartnett, researchers at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
a
think tank
based in Washington (and an organization to which I belong).
Carothers and Hartnett have developed a rigorous data collection system that “tracks” and documents popular protests around the world.
Thus, they inform us that 2023, the last year for which data is available, was particularly shocking: “…new protests appeared in 83 countries, from China to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and from Iraq to North Macedonia.
Seven countries that had not experienced significant protests in the last five years entered the group in 2023: Denmark, French Polynesia, Mozambique, Norway, Ireland, Suriname and Sweden.
Furthermore, the protest tracker reveals that not only have the countries where people take to streets and squares increased, but the reasons why they do so are more diverse.
Some of the largest demonstrations were in defense of democracy.
Specifically in reaction to changes in the judicial system, and alterations to the electoral system aimed at concentrating power in the head of the government and his allies.
In 2023, we saw these undemocratic manipulations among others in Poland, Israel, Nigeria and Mozambique.
A surprise occurred in Guatemala, where a new coalition of social and indigenous groups managed to ensure that Bernardo Arévalo, the winner of the elections, was able to take control of the government despite the efforts of his adversaries to prevent it.
But it wasn't just politics.
The economy and its social consequences also fueled the protests.
Inflation was the common denominator of street activism in Pakistan, Portugal, Slovenia.
In Ghana and Nigeria, shortages of basic products became an intense source of social conflict.
The poor quality of public services is also often a trigger for people's protests.
Carothers and Hartnett report as an example that, in 2023, in South Africa there were more than one hundred demonstrations driven by the poor quality of electrical service.
Another important motivation for protesting citizens is the increase in crime, personal insecurity and the proliferation of armed and violent gangs that traffic drugs and people in addition to extorting individuals and businesses.
The deficiencies in health and education services, transportation and urban cleanliness, and the poor quality of public works contribute to the growing frustration of citizens.
The result, at a global level, is the same: societies exposed to growing waves of instability.
Our era is suspended between the risks of high finance that worry leaders like Claudia Buch and the street swirls that shake more and more cities around the world.
The turbulence that surrounds us comes from above and below at the same time, and configures a new, unprecedented and uncertain reality whose consequences we are only beginning to know.
@moisesnaim
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