The collapse of the southern Atlantic current, known as
Amoc
, appears more and more probable and ever closer: after the study published in July 2023 which indicated 2057 as the most probable year for an interruption of this current, now new research from the University of Utrecht, in the Netherlands, brings new confirmation to these estimates.
According to new data, published in the journal Science Advances,
the salinity levels of ocean waters are getting lower
and lower, which is a
wake-up call
that
collapse is not far away
.
If the prediction were to come true, the effects on the climate would be notable, with
lower temperatures in North-Western Europe
, interruption of tropical monsoons and
further warming of the Southern Hemisphere
.
The Amoc, acronym from the English
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
, transfers warm salt water towards the North: this water, during the journey, cools and becomes denser, then sinks to greater depths and is transported again towards the South. The current has However, it began to slow down since the middle of the last century: with the ever-increasing quantities of fresh water flowing into the sea due to the melting of glaciers and the increase in rainfall, the concentration of salt decreases, making the water less dense and weakening hence the entire mechanism.
Now, thanks to new mathematical models, researchers led by René van Westen have found a way to understand when the 'critical point' of the Southern Atlantic Current will be close: the signal will be given by the slowing of the decline in salinity at the southernmost edge of the Atlantic.
“Once that threshold is reached – say the authors of the study – it is likely that the turning point will occur within a period of between 10 and 40 years
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