As of: February 19, 2024, 5:49 a.m
By: Michaele Heske
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When night frost occurs in March, birds lose their first brood, here lapwings in the Isental near Dorfen.
© Andreas Hartl
Bavaria is currently experiencing its warmest February in 104 years.
Many people are happy about this, but it has difficult consequences for flora and fauna.
Erding
- Spring lets its blue ribbon flutter through the air again - as welcome as the higher temperatures are for many people: if the plants are already sprouting and the birds are breeding too early, then nature is out of sync.
Since weather records began, it has never been as warm as it was in the first half of February this year.
“The deviation from the norm is plus 6.4 degrees – that is absolutely extreme,” says Dr.
Michael Sachweh, meteorologist from Erding.
Last Friday the thermometer in the region climbed almost to 19 degrees, the open-air season was already starting in the street cafes in Erding and Dorfen, people were sitting outside and enjoying the sun.
“It was more than a hint of spring, the weather is currently acting up – even we meteorologists are rubbing our eyes because of the heat,” says the weather expert, who prepares the forecasts for BR on television, radio and online.
“This is the warmest February in Bavaria in 104 years.”
Weather and climate expert: Michael Sachweh.
© private
The cause lies in the accumulation of mild western and southwest weather conditions.
The westerly winds transport air from the middle and subtropical latitudes of the Atlantic.
But that alone is not the reason for the current heat record: “The Atlantic is warmer than ever before in a winter.” And what’s next for the weather?
“Monday and Tuesday as well as the following days will bring unstable weather, rain will fall at times - but it remains far too mild for the time of year.”
Of course, the mild weather is not without consequences.
“Nature is already in early spring mode instead of late winter,” says Sachweh.
The birds chirp at dawn.
They use their song to mark their territories, look for partners and start breeding far too early, says Dorfen city councilor and nature photographer Andreas Hartl.
“In March and April there will probably be cold snaps with night frost again,” he refers to previous years.
“Then the birds lose their first brood.” But it can also happen that birds already have young, but they cannot find food for the offspring because many insects are still in hibernation.
Fish have a fixed spawning time that depends on the length of daylight and the water temperature.
“If the value shoots up too early in the year, the feeding conditions for the fish are extremely poor,” says Hartl.
Observer of nature: Andreas Hartl on the Isen in Dorfen.
© Michaele Heske
Climate change also has dramatic consequences for amphibians: toads and frogs are on the way to their spawning grounds when nighttime temperatures reach 6 degrees and warm rain falls at the same time.
Then thousands of grass frogs, spring frogs, newts and toads come out of their winter quarters, mostly from the forests, and go looking for a bride - a huge problem if the fences to protect road crossings have not yet been put up.
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The 76-year-old Hartl has been observing nature in his hometown of Dorfen since his childhood.
He doesn't like the changes at all.
“It’s frightening what has been lost in a generation,” says the former head of administration in the Dorfen town hall, referring to the extinction of species.
There are hardly any curlews left, only two pairs of lapwings still breed on the Isenauen.
The globeflower and orchid meadows have also almost all disappeared.
Agriculture is to blame.
But he doesn't blame the individual farmers for this; this is a structural problem.
Farmers received less and less money for their food and were forced to invest in more and more machines, artificial fertilizers and sprays in order to increase their yield.
“The big corporations determine the prices, but this is a catastrophe for biodiversity.”
The timing of spawning depends on daylight and temperature.
This misleads fish like this nose.
© Andreas Hartl
“Our ecosystem is a densely woven network,” says Hartl, referring to evolution.
“With every stitch I cut out, this net becomes more holey and at some point it won’t catch us anymore,” says the Green politician.
As a result, microbes, bacteria and diseases emerge that threaten humanity as a result of climate change.
“Conditions will arise that we humans will no longer have under control,” says Hartl.
Global warming is a fact, climate researcher Sachweh also sees it that way.
But he counters: "I believe people will adapt to climate change - I'm not an alarmist, but rather pragmatic." There could be longer heat waves again in the summer.
“But it’s nothing more than a gut feeling.” The 65-year-old Erdinger can only make truly reliable forecasts seven to a maximum of ten days in advance.
“Weather reports today use the most powerful computers in the world.
However, weather developments can only be predicted for days or two weeks at most.
This is because the atmosphere is a so-called chaotic system: a huge number of factors work against and with each other - everything is very difficult to calculate in advance. That's why you have to plan ahead.
“Long periods of heat do not offer such media-effective images as heavy rain and floods, but they cause many more deaths, especially among older people.” The focus should therefore be on adapting to future living conditions, says Sachweh.
“This requires many more air-conditioned rooms, especially in retirement homes and hospitals.
In this respect, Germany is almost a developing country when you look at other countries like the USA.” Or significantly better flood protection.” The meteorologist believes that the fact that all countries around the world are pulling together and saving CO2 is illusory.