This week begins the key semester for the Government of President Gustavo Petro to save its three major social reforms in Congress.
The problem is that it has not yet secured majorities in either the Senate or the House of Representatives.
In order for it to become law, the health reform - the Executive's main legislative commitment - needs to successfully pass two debates, in the Seventh Committee of the Senate and then in the plenary session.
The deadline for this, including the usual reconciliation of the texts with the Chamber, is June 20 of this year, exactly four months from this Monday.
If this does not happen, the project that generated the first major cabinet crisis, and the one that has consumed a good part of its political capital, will sink.
Although it can present it again in August, the Government will have suffered a heavy political defeat.
It is a complex panorama if one takes into account that last year it took more than six months and 17 ordinary sessions for the plenary session of the Chamber to approve this project.
If the same pace continues, the reform that seeks to fundamentally transform the health system would not become law.
With an additional difficulty: in the Senate plenary session, in principle it is much more difficult for the president to obtain the support of the Liberal, Conservative and La U parties, which supported him in the Chamber.
In fact, this Sunday former president César Gaviria, director of the Liberal Party, once again attacked this reform, and assured that Petro has a “crazy intention” to end the current system.
Gaviria still enjoys the support of many senators from his party.
Without the votes of the red bench, the Government requires the full support of the senators of La U and conservatives, an almost impossible option due to the public statements that these groups have made about the reform.
Despite the difficulties, the president insists on his project.
To solve the first obstacle, the Seventh Commission has two key allies.
Martha Peralta, senator of the Historical Pact, and president of the Commission, and Wilson Arias, faithful follower of Petro.
According to a report on the new legislative period carried out by the advisory company Vali Consultores, Peralta has strengthened the legislative proposal by holding public hearings in different regions of the country.
“The contribution of civil society, academics and the health sector in the territories reinforces the Government's discourse of legitimacy,” says Vali.
In the Seventh Commission, it will be essential for the National Government to ensure the support of the Santander senator Miguel Ángel Pinto, of the Liberal Party, and maintain the support of the senator of the Christian party MIRA, Ana Paola Agudelo.
If this approval is achieved, the reform led by Minister Guillermo Alfonso Jaramillo will face the plenary session of the Senate, which begins the legislature with 105 effective seats, three less than normal, due to the vacancies of the Uribista Ciro Ramírez, of the late liberal Mario Castaño , and former presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernández.
The configuration of the absolute majority, in the absence of any additional changes, will be 53 votes.
“The Government bench, in which the Liberal Party is still present, has 48 seats.
It's not enough.
This forces agreements to be reached with political parties declared independent,” explains Vali's analysis.
Added to this is the reality that the official positions of the groups do not determine their votes, and the internal divisions in many of them, such as La U.
The pension reform, which has generated less rejection in the parties and in public opinion, is, however, on tighter schedules.
In addition, it was the only reform that was not discussed in the second half of last year.
You need to pass three debates before June 20.
It begins in the Senate plenary session, in principle the most complex scenario.
If it goes ahead, it will go to the Seventh Chamber Commission and then to the plenary session.
Debate on the Senate floor is expected to begin this week or next week at the latest.
This was announced in December by the president of the Senate, Iván Name, a congressman from the Green Party and a strong critic of the Government.
Currently, the project has three submissions filed, Vali recalls: one positive, signed by the government senators and headed by Martha Peralta;
an alternative presentation, by Senator Norma Hurtado, from the U party;
and one that asks to archive the initiative, filed by Lorena Ríos of the Christian party Colombia Justa y Libres.
Diana Ospina, account manager of the consulting firm, explains in dialogue with EL PAÍS that last Friday, the first day of Congress sessions this year, negotiations began between the Government and the parties to achieve more consensus on this reform.
“In the Senate plenary session it was announced that they are going to hold negotiating tables to have a text that reflects the concerns of all sectors.”
The strategy of arriving with a more or less agreed text can help consolidate majorities and speed up the process, even if the opposition groups are left out.
The most lagging reform is the labor reform, which has barely begun its discussion in the Seventh Commission of the Chamber.
It has to overcome at least one debate this semester to avoid sinking, something that already happened with a first version that the Government presented more than a year ago.
If it passes that Commission, it must have majorities in the plenary session of the House and then begin its journey in the Senate.
In 2023 it was debated, and the members of the Commission approved 15 of its articles, with the votes of representatives of the U, the Green Alliance and the Conservative Party.
It is likely that the Government will be able to move it forward in the Commission, and even in the plenary session of the House.
In the Senate, as in all reforms, the doubts are greater.
For this reason, the Executive continues to seek international support for labor reform.
“The Minister of Labor, Gloria Inés Ramírez, together with her Mexican counterpart Marath Bolaños López signed a cooperation agreement aimed at promoting and strengthening labor protection in both countries on key issues of labor mobility, job training and sustainable development,” explains Vali.
In addition to these three reforms, the Government of Gustavo Petro has announced that it will present a reform of the justice system for which it created a commission of independent experts, a reform of the public services system and, possibly, a new tax reform.
A rosary of initiatives that can produce greater traffic jams in a Congress distant from the Executive.
“The Government continues to be very ambitious and presents itself as a reformer, but it has enormous challenges to reach agreements within Congress and very complex times for the passage of projects,” says Jonathan Ávila, director of Vali, in conversation with EL COUNTRY.
And he concludes: “The Government will have to make the decision of what to prioritize between its three ongoing social reforms and the draft bills not yet presented.”
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