In a campaign in which better results are expected, producers are delaying sales of their harvest due to the country's climatic and economic situation.
According to the analysis of the Grassi brokerage, as of February 7 (latest official data) producers sold 5.6 million of the
expected
52 million tons of soybeans (11%).
And only 700 thousand tons have a price.
On the same date of the previous cycle, the farmers had sold 16% of the production, which amounted to only 21 million tons due to the severe drought that impacted the countryside.
Going further back, always comparing the same period, in the 2021/22 cycle 17% had been sold, in 2020/21, 23% and in 2019/20, 28%.
The same thing happens in the case of corn.
With a production projection of 56.5 million tons, producers marketed 10.8 million tons (19%)
.
And only 3 million of the total that is expected has a price.
Last year, on the same date, they had sold 22% of the 34 million tons that were harvested, also impacted by the drought.
In the 2021/22 campaign, producers had marketed 29%.
In 2020/21, 32%;
and in 2019/20, 35%.
Why producers don't sell their soybeans
There are several
reasons that discourage producers from parting with merchandise and storing it in their fields
.
"What was expected to be a more normalized cycle with respect to the pace of marketing - due to a better harvest in terms of volume and prospects for clearer rules of the game - is beginning to show a
very striking delay
," said
Juan Manuel Uberti,
grain analyst. from the runner
Grassi.
As explained, the prices of grains in the
available market
are affected by a preferential exchange rate for the export sector that is formed by a mix of 80% of the official exchange rate plus 20% of a free exchange rate.
Thus,
the “blend” is around $900.
On the other hand, the forward contracts (known as forward) that are used to close deals on the merchandise of the new harvest
are settled in the official wholesale dollar
, which today is quoted at $ 832. There is an expectation that the exporting dollar will begin to be used for forward contracts.
"The uncertainty regarding the duration of this scheme or its modification or elimination
represents the main disincentive to agree on sales
. In addition, there could be speculation about a
new devaluation
of the official exchange rate, taking into account the delay in the real exchange rate due to the advance of inflation in these months," he added.
Among other factors,
Catalina Ferrari
, market analyst at
Planifica+
, added that it is also due to the
fall in future prices of soybeans and corn
.
May-24 soybeans reached a price of US$ 275 when in November it averaged US$ 340. "In the case of soybeans, in the domestic market, so far in February, there has been lower demand as a result of the drop in the price of oil," he added.
In corn, the same thing happened.
The April -24 position is trading around US$175 when it traded close to US$200 in November.
Another reason was the heat wave, which generated uncertainty about
the possible drop in the
estimated yield when there is little leftover of the campaign available.
Despite the rainfall between February 7 and 14, which almost equaled what was accumulated throughout the month in the region,
the damage to soybeans is irreversible
.
The losses are stated to be between 20 and 30 percent of the yield potential of the oilseed planted on the first date in the core area, according to the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).