Correspondent in Brussels
After months of true-false suspense, Ursula von der Leyen, 65, is now officially a candidate for a second term at the head of the Commission.
She announced it this Monday in Berlin, during a meeting of the CDU of which she is a member.
And this large German center-right party, which was firmly awaiting his candidacy, immediately gave him its blessing.
This dubbing is only the first step in a long and well-defined process.
Then will come the EPP congress, on March 6 and 7, in Bucharest during which the President of the Commission will be formally designated leader - spitzenkandidat - of the European right for the June elections.
A formality knowing that “VDL” has not the slightest competitor facing it in the EPP.
Outgoing President of the Commission, she is, people have been saying in Brussels for months, “
the natural candidate
” for her own succession.
If the EPP comes out on top in the elections as the polls predict, she will be the future president of the Commission.
At least the one that has the best chance of becoming one, knowing that the Twenty-Seven will have to come to an agreement after the European elections, before the European Parliament validates their choice by a majority vote.
Natural candidate
Suffice to say that things had been much simpler in 2019 for the former German Minister of Defense, when she was chosen at the finish and without even being a candidate.
The Twenty-Seven had then successively “killed” the German Manfred Weber and the Dutch Frans Timmermans - respectively spitzenkandidat of the EPP and the European social-democratic family - before the name of Angela Merkel's protégé was proposed by Emmanuel Macron and validated by his counterparts.
A method then widely criticized by the European Parliament which had the feeling of having had the elections stolen by the Twenty-Seven.
If “VDL” has little choice but to comply with the rules this time, it does not follow the logic to its logical conclusion.
Indeed, she will not formally be a candidate on a CDU list.
“
She really should participate in these elections.
But his name will not be anywhere on the lists in Germany
,” regrets German environmentalist Daniel Freund.
“There is a resignation.
She's going to pile up again for lack of anything better.
»
European source
As for heads of state and government, his extension for five more years at the Commission should pass.
Certainly his appointment is part of the broader process of top jobs.
Not only will the leaders have to agree on this position but they will also have to choose the next president of the European Council, the future High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs.
And each of the leaders who are members of the major EU parties – EPP, S&D and Renew – will claim their share of the pie.
In the event of a blockage, the Twenty-Seven could therefore, as in 2019, pull another candidate out of their hat.
The names of the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, and the former President of the Italian Council, Mario Draghi, have also been circulating in recent weeks.
This is not the most likely scenario.
The EPP, which has 12 leaders at the European Council table, will weigh in with all its weight and the vote is, moreover, by qualified majority.
Given the multiple crises that the EU must face, leaders will probably prefer to opt for stability by renewing “VDL”.
“
There is a resignation.
It will pile up again for lack of anything better
,” comments a senior European official.
The former Minister of Defense nevertheless held on in the face of the exceptional and unprecedented crises that were Covid and then the war in Ukraine.
Even when she made damaging missteps or communication errors, this skilled rider always knew how to let the storm pass and get back in the saddle, without losing her fixed smile.
This was the case at the beginning of 2021, when leaders, despairing at not seeing vaccines arrive, asked EU ambassadors and Commissioner Thierry Breton to regain control of the matter.
This was also the case when the Commission proposed putting back a border around Ireland in the difficult Brexit issue.
Or even more recently, in October 2023, when VDL went to Israel and did not have a single word for the dead in Gaza, forgetting, as an EU diplomat points out, that it embodies “
not Germany but Europe
.”
The leaders could also criticize him for being too solitary and vertical.
At the end of November, an EU diplomat put his foot in the dish, on the kick-off of the accession discussions and the 50 billion euros of support promised to kyiv by “VDL” as if it were a given.
“
In his place, I would go into underwater mode right now.
By saying
“I decided”,
people ask themselves
“why her?”
".
The question is the distribution of power
.”
If not completely forgotten, these road trips are put in the background.
“VDL” has the support of the German Olaf Scholz.
And seems, at this stage, to have that of Emmanuel Macron, who nevertheless keeps his cards in his hand.
The president received “VDL” on February 13 in Paris for “
an in-depth discussion
”.
Upon his arrival, he walked down the steps of the Élysée to welcome him, then they both posed all smiles in front of the photographers.
“
In terms of the communication operation, I don't have the impression that there is anything negative about it.
This staging was not obligatory
,” analyzes a European interlocutor.
The current President of the Commission has also increased the number of trips in recent months with leaders, notably the Italian Giorgia Meloni and the Spaniard Pedro Sanchez, whose support will be crucial.
She also spent a few days last summer with Greek Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
Suffice to say that his decision was carefully considered, studied at length and prepared.
Apparently, “VDL” has also recently been drawing up what the program for its next mandate could be.
It will be very different from the first.
The Green Deal, which has raised the hackles of many European capitals and citizens, will continue to be implemented but will no longer have the same place.
The security of the EU, on the other hand, will be a central theme.
While Europeans must urgently strengthen their military resources, she defended at the end of last week in Munich the creation of a post of Defense Commissioner, at least in charge of Defense industries.
Sending a sign in the direction of Paris which tirelessly pleads to strengthen the European defense industry.
The enlargement of the Union and internal reforms within the EU will also be one of the priority issues of the next mandate.
The matter could be much more complicated in the European Parliament.
In this assembly where the conservative and sovereignist rights should win a significant number of seats next June, a large gap would await the outgoing president to ensure the support of the MEPs of the future majority -PPE, S&D and Renew- .
“
She will need,
” says Johannes Lindner, director of the Center Jacques Delors think tank,
“a stable coalition with Parliament and she will move a little to the right
.”
In 2019, she was narrowly elected, with only 9 votes ahead.
Members of his political family had criticized him for having been imposed by the Twenty-Seven.
This trial cannot be done to him this time.