As of: February 19, 2024, 11:42 a.m
From: Foreign Policy
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Angela Merkel's “monument” is crumbling... © wein
In order to outflank the right-wing extremists, Friedrich Merz shaped Germany's CDU according to his ideas.
Can Merz become the next Chancellor despite his unpopularity?
Friedrich Merz is moving further and further away from Angela Merkel's centrist politics
In order to steal votes from the AfD, Merz is alienating Merkel's base
German economy between stagnation and recession - Merz's 12-point plan should fix it
Merz puts the firewall into perspective - cooperation with the AfD at the local level possible?
Merz CDU with a clear gap to the SPD and the Greens: His last chance for the Chancellery
This article is available for the first time in German - it was first published by
Foreign Policy
magazine on February 12, 2024 .
The leader of German conservatism has finally brought his long-awaited goal within reach.
German politics is in such a mess, with the country plagued by ongoing strikes and the government suffering from unprecedented unpopularity.
The path to the Federal Chancellery appears to be free of obstacles.
But Friedrich Merz allowed himself to be outmaneuvered again and again throughout his long career.
Will it be different this time?
AfD is putting German democracy to the test
Logic dictates that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the only popular party not involved in government, should prepare enthusiastically for next year's federal election.
Instead, the CDU is looking over its shoulder at the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is taking advantage of an alarming number of angry voters and testing the resilience of Germany's postwar liberal democracy.
The CDU is only narrowly leading in the polls.
The AfD is close behind, leaving three parties in the governing coalition - Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats - well behind.
Merz is looking for a new identity for the CDU - and alienating Merkel voters in the process
Scholz's personal survey results are catastrophic and Merz's results are not much better.
He openly accuses his predecessor, former Chancellor Angela Merkel, of moving the CDU so far to the center that it can no longer be distinguished from the other parties.
Since taking over the party in January 2022 (his fifth attempt in a career that has spanned half a century), Merz has moved his party to the right, hoping to blunt the AfD's attacks.
Former Chancellor Angela Merkel.
© Markus Schreiber/AP-Pool/dpa/archive image
In doing so, he alienated more moderate voters.
There is open discussion in his party about whether the rugged Merz is the right man to run for chancellor.
Of the two likely alternatives, Markus Söder, the chairman of the Christian Social Union, has the advantages of familiarity and a certain traditionalism.
Hendrik Wüst, the Prime Minister of the most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia, represents the younger, modernizing tendency.
Merz's 12-point plan is intended to give the German economy an upswing
Merz pushes back against this speculation, insisting he is best placed to give his party a sharper edge and reshape respectable German conservatism for these tougher times.
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With the German economy teetering between stagnation and recession, the CDU has put together a 12-point “emergency package” to stimulate the economy.
It is based on a reduction in taxes for companies, more flexible ways for employers and employees to work, and an elimination of regulations that “increase bureaucracy.”
It represents a return to a more traditional, free-market conservatism aimed at supporting the middle class.
This would be partially funded by a reduction in Social Security benefits.
After the Constitutional Court's most recent ruling on the debt brake, a hole of 60 billion euros remains in the federal budget.
Now all parties are trying to find solutions to the gaping hole and at the same time money for future investments.
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Farewell to a welcoming culture: Merz shows a clear stance against immigration
On the central issue, migration, he has said goodbye to the “welcoming culture” that characterized Merkel's CDU.
In particular, he distances himself from its decision in 2015 to allow the entry of 1 million migrants who had fled mainly from the Middle East.
In December 2023, the CDU presented a draft program in which it proposed relocating asylum seekers to so-called safe third countries in order to process their applications.
This is in response to the British government's controversial plans to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.
For Merz, such an approach is not only a question of political survival, but also of principle.
He has advocated for a tough stance on immigration for two decades - at a time when such views were considered unthinkable.
He has called for a policy based on the Leitkultur, a concept that, in addition to robust integration and assimilation measures, also requires respect for German values and the rule of law.
Chances for Black-Green are “very good” – resistance from Merz is shrinking
Merz approaches the AfD rhetoric and allows himself faux pas
The CDU is not alone in this;
The coalition government recently adopted tougher immigration policies, including the introduction of local border controls.
The dilemma that all parties, and especially the CDU, face when it comes to dealing with the AfD extends to several areas.
Including the politics themselves, the tone and the nature of the debate.
In terms of the tone and type of argument, Merz fluctuates between trying to be integrative and picking up right-wing slogans along the lines of “I know what you really think.”
During one of his failed candidacies for president in 2020, he was asked whether he would have reservations about a gay chancellor leading Germany.
“No,” he replied.
“As long as it stays within the framework of the law and as long as it doesn’t affect children – but at this point, in my opinion, an absolute limit has been reached – it is not a topic for public discussion.”
For Merz, refugees from the Ukraine war are “welfare tourists”
After an outcry, he sought clarification, saying he did not mean to associate homosexuality with pedophilia.
On another occasion he spoke of “little Pashas,” apparently referring to Muslim parents who advocate for their children.
A few months after Russia invaded Ukraine, he described some Ukrainian refugees as “welfare tourists.”
At every argument, he accused his accusers of taking his statements out of context.
Merz's most controversial statement to date revolved around the sensitive issue of the "firewall", i.e. the obligation of the established parties not to make political agreements with the AfD.
Neither at regional nor at national level.
Under Merz, the CDU's commitment seemed to temporarily weaken.
In July 2023, when the right-wing extremist party won its first local election, he said in a television interview when asked about cooperation at the local level: “Of course, the local parliaments then have to look for ways to shape the city and the district.”
Merz with questionable statements - relativizing the firewall to the AfD
This trend can also be observed in other parts of Europe.
During last year's Spanish elections, the conservative People's Party said it would like to join forces with the far-right Vox.
In the Netherlands, outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte's center-right party has also started talks with the victorious Party for Freedom, led by veteran right-wing populist Geert Wilders.
But in Germany, where history continues to burden public life, the firewall has long been considered sacrosanct.
The governing mayor of Berlin, Kai Wegner, was one of many leading CDU politicians who sharply rejected Merz's proposal.
Your party, said Wegner, “The CDU cannot, will not and will not work with a party whose business model is hatred, division and exclusion.” That Merz also described his party as an “alternative for Germany with substance” and the Greens as “ours Main enemy” denounced did not help his cause.
Secret meeting in Potsdam shows: The AfD's takeover plans are ready
In the past two months, the debate has escalated even further since investigative journalists uncovered a meeting of right-wing extremist and neo-Nazi politicians in November 2023.
In this “master plan” for the mass deportation of foreigners and “non-adapted” Germans, this project was euphemistically referred to as “remigration”.
The now-famous Potsdam event prompted mainstream politicians and civil society to oppose the AfD with a series of mass demonstrations across the country.
The fact that several CDU members attended the event was embarrassing for Merz, who quickly vowed to kick them out of the party.
However, the excitement over the Potsdam meeting does not seem to have harmed the AfD.
It is still expected to be the largest group, or just behind the CDU, in the European Parliament elections in June;
Even more dramatic is that it could storm to victory in one or all three state elections in September, in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg.
Merz in trouble: further to the right or back to the center?
In this case, the CDU will be under great pressure to form a coalition with the other established parties so that the AfD cannot form a government in the state parliaments.
Merz's dilemma is acute.
If he continues the CDU's shift to the right, he will further alienate many of those who came to the party through Merkel.
If he doesn't, he will leave the field to the AfD to continue targeting dissatisfied conservative voters.
In a recent parliamentary debate that was characterized by personal attacks, Scholz accused Merz of opportunism and recklessness.
“How can anyone want to gamble away Germany’s future like you are doing?
Economic expertise: zero." He went on to describe the CDU chairman as a "sensitive, wilting flower" before resorting to a sporting analogy: "I think anyone who boxes shouldn't have a glass chin.
But you have a really nice glass chin, Mr. Merz.”
The combative Merz will keep fighting because he knows that this is his big chance and last chance.
He can console himself with the fact that the CDU has a clear lead over the SPD and the Greens, while the FDP may even fall below the 5 percent threshold required to enter parliament.
Despite his problems, Merz remains the most likely next chancellor in 2025 - if he can convince his party to stick with him.
To the author
John Kampfner
is the author of Why the Germans Do It Better: Notes from a Grown-Up Country.
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” on February 12, 2024 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.