Netanyahu: "Surrendering to Hamas' demands will not lead to the release of the abductees - but to another massacre"
President Biden's senior adviser on Middle East affairs, Brett McGurk, will come to Israel this week for talks on the preparation for a possible IDF operation in Rafah and the efforts to free the hostages, according to senior Israeli and American officials briefed on the matter.
Why is this important:
• The White House is very concerned that a possible Israeli operation in Rafah - where over a million Palestinians are concentrated - will lead to a humanitarian disaster and the death of thousands of innocent civilians.
• President Biden told Prime Minister Netanyahu in two phone calls last week that he opposes military action in Rafah "without a credible and workable plan" to evacuate the Palestinian residents from the city.
• The American administration also Very concerned that an Israeli operation in Rafah would lead to tens of thousands of Palestinians fleeing to Egyptian territory. The Egyptians warned that such a scenario would lead to a rupture in relations with Israel.
Brett McGurk, Coalition, ISIS, United States, December 22, 2018/Official website, Getimages
In the news center:
• Before his arrival in Israel, McGregor will visit Egypt on Wednesday and meet with the head of Egyptian intelligence, Abbas Kamel, and with other senior Egyptian officials, according to senior Israeli and American officials.
• On Thursday, McGregor will arrive in Israel and meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Gallant and Israeli officials.
His talks in Egypt and Israel will focus on the Rafah issue and negotiations for the release of the abductees.
The picture of the situation:
• Netanyahu, Gallant and Israeli officials said that Israel wishes to launch a military operation in Rafah to "dismantle" the four Hamas battalions that remain in the city and have not been harmed so far. Israel has made it clear that any such action will be carried out after Coordination with the USA and Egypt.
• The US wants to hear from Israel what the IDF's operational plan is for action in Rafah, as well as what the plan is for the evacuation of the civilian population from the area.
The IDF is expected to present the operational plan and the evacuation plan to the cabinet later this week.
• Netanyahu said at a press conference on Saturday night that the plan includes the evacuation of the civilian population from Rafah to the areas north of Khan Yunis and south of Gaza City.
• Senior American officials questioned whether such a plan is feasible in light of the fact that in these areas there is no functioning water, electricity and sewage infrastructure that can support hundreds of thousands of people.
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Israel clarified that a military operation in Rafah will be carried out after coordination with the US and Egypt/Reuters
The big picture:
• Netanyahu and Israeli officials threatened publicly and in silent messages delivered to Hamas through intermediaries, that if there is no progress in the negotiations on the release of the abductees, Israel will move forward with a military operation
in Rafah. • On the other hand, if progress is achieved, an agreement to release the abductees may lead to a lull in the fighting for at least six weeks in Gaza and to significantly postpone an operation in Rafah.
• Also, Egypt, which is very concerned about a possible Israeli operation in Rafah, is one of the main mediators in the indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel on a deal to release the abductees.
Why pay attention:
• Senior Israeli and American officials admit that despite the public threats from the Israeli government, many more weeks will pass before the operation in Rafah is implemented.
According to them, this may happen only after the month of Ramadan - in the middle of April.
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