Following his victories in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, Donald Trump will certainly be the Republican candidate for the presidency of the United States in next November's elections, and polls give him a slight advantage over Joe Biden.
His return to the White House could spell the death knell for American democracy.
In power between 2017 and 2021, Trump tested the limits.
If he was initially a symptom of the crisis afflicting our democracy, Trump has now become the driving force of it.
He deepened existing divisions among Americans, accelerating the country's dangerous polarization;
He lowered the level of public debate with his lies and insults.
He ignored the fundamental rules of democracy, starting with respect for the checks and balances of power.
And, above all, after losing the last presidential elections, he tried by all means to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, culminating in an insurrection by his supporters on January 6, 2021.
If American democracy has endured Trump's first term despite everything, it is partly because he arrived at the White House unprepared, surprised — like all of us — by his own election.
He entrusted key positions to experienced people from the conservative
establishment
, who acted as safeguards, successfully tempering his more radical instincts for years.
Only at the end of his term, after his electoral defeat, did he surround himself with sycophants willing to destroy everything to keep him in power.
And if we escaped this latest onslaught it was thanks to the strength of the institutions and a deep-rooted democratic tradition, but above all to some Republican leaders who demonstrated enough strength to stand up to it, such as those who refused to "seek 11,000 votes" for him in Georgia.
His until then loyal Vice President Mike Pence refused to invalidate the results.
This time, if Trump is elected, things will be very different.
He has been ruminating on his resentment for three years and preparing his “revenge.”
Within a network of well-funded groups, such as the powerful Heritage Foundation, his supporters have refined their program and drawn up lists of thousands of potential recruits to replace as many career officials: Trump will be able to begin, from day one, applying a extremist politics and an all-out offensive against the democratic institutions that had hindered his power.
Trump does not hide his intention to exercise state power against his “enemies,” as he stated before the Conservative Political Action Conference: “I am your warrior.
I am your justice.
And for those who have been wronged and betrayed: I am your revenge.”
To do this, he will begin by subjecting the Department of Justice, which oversees the 93 prosecutors in the United States, to his political direction, reversing an ethical standard established after the Watergate scandal, when President Richard Nixon used this ministry to persecute his political opponents. .
But Trump, who describes his four current criminal cases (two for attempts to subvert democracy, another for endangering national security secrets and another for falsifying business documents in a secret payment to pornographic actress Stormy Daniels) as evidence of a political vendetta , will not hesitate to use the ministry to launch investigations against his opponents.
“It's a third world country thing, 'put your opponent in jail,'” Trump denounced.
“And that means I can do it too.”
Specifically, he said that he would appoint “a real special prosecutor to go after” President Biden and “the entire Biden mafia.”
Instead, he would almost certainly grant amnesty to all January 6 insurgents, and there is no doubt that he would abuse his office to block federal criminal proceedings against him.
Although it is generally illegal to use the military to enforce the law on American soil, Trump reportedly intends to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1792 to turn the military into a personal police force, subdue those who might protest, and take charge of the fights crime in cities and states governed by Democrats.
He announced his intention to create vast detention camps for undocumented immigrants.
Because, he said, immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.”
All of this has led many Americans to sound the alarm.
The United States is “sleepwalking toward dictatorship,” says Liz Cheney, leader of the moderate Republicans.
Joe Biden also increasingly focuses his speeches on the threat that Trump poses to democracy.
The danger of his choice is, indeed, very real.
The four criminal cases against Trump have already damaged his approval ratings among independent and undecided voters, but it is possible that only the Daniels payment case, the least relevant, will go to trial before the election.
In any case, it is worth remembering for non-Americans, a conviction would not disqualify you.
In theory, Trump could be disqualified under the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, adopted after the Civil War, which bars former officials involved in “insurrections” (such as the January 6 riots) from holding public office again.
But the Supreme Court, with a conservative majority, will surely resist intervening and replacing the American electorate.
And the electorate, if they don't want Trump, don't want Biden either, despite his good economic results.
In a deeply divided country, where electoral participation is only around 55%-60%, mobilization will be essential on voting day, but Biden does not arouse the same enthusiasm among his voters as Trump does.
His complicity with Israel will cost him many votes among blacks and young people, as well as in the Arab and Muslim communities, decisive for his victory in 2020 in several key states.
Above all, Americans, including most Democrats, consider Biden too old physically and mentally to govern for five more years.
The devastating February 8 report by a special prosecutor who portrayed Biden as “a nice, well-intentioned old man with a bad memory,” and his public response in which he committed several gaffes, have finally opened a public debate about his possible replacement as candidate of his party.
Through the primaries in which he runs without serious opposition, Biden will have accumulated almost all the delegates for the Democratic convention in August that will name the candidate.
Therefore, he could only be replaced if he agrees to retire, which - for the moment - he does not seem willing to do.
And no major Democrat has wanted to break ranks for fear of weakening him even further.
But the problem of his mental acuity will not go away.
The campaign strategy of limiting his appearances to avoid more mistakes cannot be successful in the long term and only prevents him from mobilizing support.
Influential voices are urging party leaders like Barack Obama to call on Biden to step aside for the good of the country.
This would lead to an open
convention
for the first time in decades, which could be chaotic but would give Democrats the opportunity to present a more compelling candidate with a better chance of winning in November.
The future of American democracy is at stake.
Reed Brody
is a human rights attorney and former New York State Deputy Attorney General.
Subscribe to continue reading
Read without limits
Keep reading
I am already a subscriber
_