Unemployment Insurance sharply revised downwards its surplus forecast for 2024 on Tuesday due to the economic situation and less compensation by the State for exemptions from contributions, which is slowing down its debt reduction, according to a press release from Unédic.
The surplus, still forecast at 5 billion euros last September, would ultimately only be 1.1 billion euros, before starting to rise again in 2025 (3 billion), 2026 (5.3 billion) and 2027 (11.2 billion), according to these forecasts.
To finance France Travail (which replaced Pôle emploi on January 1) and France Compétences (vocational training), the Social Security financing law adopted in December provides for less compensation by the State for exemptions from insurance contributions. unemployment.
Revenues had thus already been reduced by 2 billion euros in 2023. The financial loss induced by this budgetary measure will be 2.6 billion euros in 2024, 3.35 billion in 2025 and 4.1 billion in 2026, or 12.05 billion over four years, recalls Unédic, which emphasizes that it
“clearly slows down the reduction of unemployment insurance debt”
.
As a result,
“the debt would be 38.6 billion euros at the end of 2027”
while
“it would have been 25.5 billion without these levies”
, specifies the organization.
These financial forecasts count on GDP growth of 0.7% in 2024, lower than that of the government, which is 1%, and on growth of 1.3% from 2025 to 2027. Job creation, which would peak at 29,000 this year, and would rise again in 2025 (112,000), 2026 (129,000) and 2027 (200,000).
“From 2025, the ramp-up of reforms and above all a more favorable economic situation would reduce the number of unemployed to 2.4 million in 2027
,” compared to just over 3 million today, Unédic anticipates.