Ursula von der Leyen has lived her presidency of the European Commission in the midst of a succession of permanent crises of such magnitude that we have to go back decades to find precedents of this magnitude.
Almost at the same time that she took office, on December 1, 2019, the first cases of covid-19 began to be detected in Wuhan (China).
Within a few weeks she already had to deal with the effects of the worst pandemic in 100 years.
Just out of it, in February 2022, Russia began the first large-scale invasion of one European country into another since 1945 in Ukraine. With this conflict, the global security architecture has exploded, causing an energy crisis and triggering inflation to levels unprecedented in decades.
Europe has responded to all these crises with progress in integration that, under other circumstances, would have taken years.
To her credit, Von der Leyen notes the successful vaccination campaign against covid-19 or a giant step in eliminating dependence on Russian gas.
The mandate of the German, who was Minister of Family, Labor and Defense under Chancellor Angela Merkel, is approaching its end.
Von der Leyen, 65, wants to repeat for another five years.
For this five-year period, the challenge is set to boost European competitiveness and take a leap towards a common defense policy.
If she repeats, if she only achieved the second part of her goal, she would change the community club forever.
The German Christian Democrat, who this Monday received the support of her party in Berlin and will receive the support of her political family, the European People's Party (EPP), in March, is the person best placed to once again preside over the Commission.
But he hasn't got everything done and his path will not be easy: first he will have to negotiate his team's portfolios with the Member States, and then he will have to receive confirmation from the new European Parliament that will emerge after the European elections in June, in which nothing It guarantees the great coalition of conservatives and social democrats and everything indicates that the ultra parties will have more weight.
Alberto Alemanno, Jean Monnet professor of EU Law at the HEC Paris business school, considers that the “constant emergency mode works in Von der Leyen's favor” to be re-elected.
Alemanno adds another element that he could play in her favor: “she is perceived as someone quite strong from the outside and weak internally.”
This last part has to do with the fact that national governments do not usually want someone very independent and strong in the main positions in the EU so that it is easier for them to impose their will or give in as little as possible.
Four months before the elections to the European Parliament, it is time to take stock of the Von der Leyen Commission.
The Christian Democrat, mother of seven children and accomplished equestrian who likes to present herself as a daughter of Europe – she was born in Brussels, where her father was a high official – has undertaken major reforms in the energy sector (such as the reform of the electricity market), economic (the recovery fund, with 750,000 million euros, to help Member States emerge from the pandemic crisis, proposed by Spain and supported by France and Germany.) and health (such as the joint purchase of vaccines, which at beginning also had controversy, or a European vaccination certificate).
Furthermore, the Community Executive that she has led has taken unprecedented steps in security and defense to support Ukraine, which she has accompanied on its path to becoming a candidate country.
Complicated end of term
His end of term, however, has been complicated.
In spring he demanded more money from the Member States for the new priorities (and a package of 50 billion euros for Ukraine) and the partners only agreed to provide a third of what was demanded.
The financial lifeline for kyiv was almost knocked out by Hungary's opposition.
In addition, Von der Leyen has had to put aside some of the star environmental reforms of her green pact - central to her plans - due to farmers' protests, pressure from the industry and the lack of support from her own conservative political family, which calls for a “realistic green agenda” and is turning increasingly to the right.
Von der Leyen set out to raise the geopolitical weight of the EU.
By supporting Ukraine, he has fulfilled part of that great objective.
In recent months, however, the slow pace of military aid to the front is hindering it.
Another bump, his trip to Israel shortly after the Hamas attacks of October 7 and the day the Israeli army launched the siege of Gaza, drew enormous criticism.
Von der Leyen's visit - which was added to an already planned trip by the president of the European Chamber, Roberta Metsola - in which she met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and showed a certain lukewarmness towards the massacre of Palestinian civilians, which It alienated several member states and caused new fissures with the global south, which has accused the EU of maintaining double standards.
His very personalistic and presidential style of work has received criticism.
In the Brussels bubble, and even within the Commission itself, it is also highlighted that he overshadows the work of his commissioners.
And he has a “great desire for prominence,” says a community source.
Like when in February 2023 she herself went to London to sign the Windsor agreement that closed the Northern Ireland dispute between the United Kingdom and the EU on account of Brexit and there was not a single space for Maros Sefcovic, the commissioner who had been negotiating the solution with several British ministers and prime ministers for many months.
Von der Leyen's possible second term, if it comes to fruition, has a great unknown.
Will it have to undo part of the path in policies to combat climate change?
His own party has already given explicit signs in the last year of believing that Europe has gone too far.
And this same Monday, Von der Leyen herself made it clear where her policies would aim in a second term: “One of [the EU's] main priorities must be competitiveness and the other is security in a broad sense.”
Both had been emerging in recent months.
Last autumn, the President of the Commission herself commissioned a report on how to improve competitiveness in Europe from the former president of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi, a little contested figure in Europe in the economic arena.
And she herself made it clear this Saturday in Munich that security, including defense policy and the production of ammunition and weapons, is on her mind when she announced that if she renewed the position she would appoint a commissioner of the branch, a newly created position. .
The unknown is how to achieve the balance between these two new priorities and the one that has marked the period 2019-2024, policies against climate change.
To develop it in the European Parliament, it has relied on the historic coalition that has governed the EU for decades (conservatives, socialists and greener liberals).
But polls suggest that now her party, the European Popular Party, could have the option of forming a coalition looking more to the right along with the liberals and the European Conservatives and Reformists group, where the Italian prime minister's party is located, the ultraconservative Giorgia Meloni, whom Von der Leyen has courted, or the head of the Czech Government, Petr Fiala.
Taking that step would, in fact, be a historic movement in the EU, where its executive arm has always been guided by that broad center coalition that,
a priori
, devoid of ideology in its action.
Follow all the international information on
and
X
, or in
our weekly newsletter
.
Subscribe to continue reading
Read without limits
Keep reading
I am already a subscriber
_