As of: February 21, 2024, 7:21 p.m
By: Karsten Hinzmann
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RCH155 from KMW: the turret of the self-propelled howitzer 2000 on the Boxer chassis.
In the future, grenades from this weapon will also force Putin's invading army to take cover.
© KMW
President Zelensky has been diligently collecting donations: howitzers, grenades and possibly long-range rockets.
Germany celebrates itself for this.
Munich - Boris Pistorius likes to be reserved in his demeanor, but rhetorically he is a rough warrior: Hardly any German Defense Minister after Franz-Josef Strauss has used rhetoric as much as he has: The Bundeswehr should become “war-ready,” he said, and they have some political quiet steps Ears flapped - no one had dared to do that since the end of the Second World War, especially no top politician.
And now the next verbal hussar ride: “Historic” is what he called the stroke of the pen with which Germany wants to support Ukraine in the fight against Vladimir Putin's invading army.
As part of the Munich Security Conference, Germany promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that it would supply more weapons and would also work closely together.
Specifically, the federal government promised a further 18 self-propelled howitzers 2000 from industrial stocks and 18 RCH 155 wheeled howitzers from the end of 2025 to 2027. In addition, artillery ammunition with a caliber of 122 millimeters is to be delivered for the first time for the howitzers from Russian stocks;
120,000 of the grenades this year.
In addition, a second SkyNex air defense system will be added in 2025.
Another hundred guided missiles will also be made available this year for the Iris-T air defense system.
In the coming years, 10.5 billion euros will increase military aid to Ukraine.
“Future aggression”: Chancellor promises an end to hesitation
“Our security agreement with Ukraine is historic,” said Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD).
“For the first time in its history, the Federal Republic is appearing in the role of a guarantor state.
Today's signing is a clear sign that Germany is living up to its increased security policy responsibilities in Europe." Germany and Ukraine are now contractually linked via the originally titled "Agreement on security cooperation and long-term support between the Federal Republic of Germany and Ukraine".
One component of this is the sixth chapter entitled “Future Aggression”: In the event of a future armed attack by Russia on Ukraine, the participants will, at the request of one of the two participants, consult within 24 hours to decide on appropriate further steps.
In plain language, this means: Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), who is often criticized as a procrastinator, wants to act more quickly in the future - with what goal is unclear;
At what point in time aggression is considered “future” remains to be seen.
“A turning point”: More money for armaments – so far just a promise
But: The rhetoric makes an impression.
In the population.
Science remains skeptical, as the German military historian Sönke Neitzel made clear some time ago in the
ARD
podcast “Strategies and Armed Forces” using the example of the Chancellor’s “turning point” formulation and the planned increase in the armaments budget: NATO demands that its partners to contribute two percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), i.e. the total economic output of a state, annually to NATO defense.
What Germany also regularly underperformed and wants to change in the future due to the “turning point”.
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That would be an estimated up to 30 billion euros per year in addition to current defense spending.
Neitzel thinks this is a rhetorical deception.
“Scholz can give important, good speeches at certain moments;
What comes next in politics is always worthy of interpretation.
And Olaf Scholz doesn't even know whether he will still be Chancellor in 2027, for example.
I think that was more of a signal to the opposition and the FDP to undermine the debt brake.
And that means he stays below the political pain threshold to, for example, take ten billion from citizens' money and put it into defense.
He won’t do that, he won’t take anything away from anyone.”
Missing howitzers: Bundeswehr must be patient
However, it will: the Bundeswehr.
The self-propelled howitzers that have now been promised are stored by the industry, but ultimately they are missing on site and replacements will come at some point, as
Spiegel
reported after the first tranche was delivered at the beginning of last year: The Bundeswehr will therefore receive 2,000 self-propelled howitzers after the delivery of 14 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine have to wait at least three years for a replacement.
According to the confidential contract documents for the replacement of at least ten new artillery systems for around 184 million euros, the manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann cannot deliver the first six howitzers until 2025 at the earliest.
If everything goes according to plan, four more should arrive at the Bundeswehr in 2026.
Military historian Neitzel assesses the situation in the Eastern European theater of war as difficult primarily because “in the USA the Republicans and parts of the Democrats have always said that the focus is actually China”.
In his opinion, Americans are more likely to see Europeans helping Ukraine.
“But we also know that without the USA, Ukraine would no longer exist;
and without the USA, Europe would also be unable to support Ukraine enough to continue waging this war.”
First front deployment: The wheeled howitzer RCH 155 is to go to the Ukraine for the first time
With the agreement concluded in Munich, Germany appears to be getting closer to its responsibility.
With the German-Ukrainian Security Agreement, the partners are deepening the joint declaration from the NATO summit in Vilnius, in which the G7 states and other NATO members spoke out in favor of bilateral security guarantees.
The guarantees should correspond to those of NATO, but should not involve NATO directly in the conflict - the assistance agreement under Article 5, for example, is excluded.
As the magazine
European Security & Technology
explains, the agreement under “Security policy and military support” breaks down how it can be achieved to build a modern, NATO-compatible and viable Ukrainian defense force.
These include jointly designed capabilities for integrated air defense and missile defense, artillery, armored combat vehicles, maritime security, information technology, drones and demining.
Joint exercises and training, cooperation in the defense industry and the defense against ABC, cyber and hybrid threats are also addressed.
The plan is to deliver between 2025 and 2027:
2000 self-propelled howitzers
In addition to the previous 14 2000 self-propelled howitzers from Bundeswehr stocks, the federal government is supplying 18 additional 2000 self-propelled howitzers from industrial stocks, including training, spare parts and ammunition.
RCH 155 wheeled howitzer
In addition to the previously planned 18 RCH 155 wheeled howitzers, the Federal Government of Ukraine will deliver a further 18 units, including training, spare parts and ammunition.
Artillery ammunition
For the first time, the federal government is supplying Ukraine with artillery ammunition in a caliber of 122 millimeters.
120,000 rounds of 122mm caliber artillery ammunition are to be delivered this year.
Ukraine has several hundred Russian-made howitzers with this caliber.
SkyNex air defense system:
The German government will provide Ukraine with a second SkyNex system.
Delivery is scheduled for 2025.
The first was delivered in January 2024.
IRIS-T SLS guided missile:
In addition to the already delivered and planned IRIS-T SLS missiles, the Federal Government of Ukraine will deliver a further 100 IRIS-T SLS missiles this year.
(Source:
European Security & Technology
)
The USA is also likely to step up: The US Senate has approved a bill for military aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel worth 88 billion euros.
Of this, 56 billion euros go to Ukraine.
70 senators, including many Republicans, voted for the aid package, 29 against it.
The US House of Representatives is majority Republican and will probably stop the money.
According to reports from
Zeit Online,
the speaker of the House of Representatives, Republican Mike Johnson, recently confirmed this: “Because the draft does not contain any money for securing the US border with Mexico, his chamber will not approve the draft, he said.
The Republicans are calling for military aid to be linked to increased border protection.
Many MPs from the Trump camp also generally speak out against continuing US aid to Ukraine.”
NBC News
reports from Pentagon sources that the Biden administration is leaning towards supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles - at the end of last year, the US began arming Ukraine with ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) tactical missile systems;
However, so far they have only delivered the older medium-range ATACMS.
Now the US is leaning toward sending the longer-range version of the missile to allow Ukraine to strike further into the Russian-controlled Crimean peninsula.
For Jack Watling from the
Royal United Services Institute
for Defense and Security Studies
(RUSI),
an urgently needed step: “If Ukraine's partners continue to provide its army with sufficient ammunition and training support to mitigate Russian attacks in 2024, it is unlikely that Russia will achieve significant successes in 2025.
If Russia sees no prospect of success in 2025 due to its inability to improve the quality of the armed forces for offensive operations, this means that it will have difficulty forcing Kiev to surrender by 2026.”