As of: February 21, 2024, 10:21 p.m
By: Kathrin Braun
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Split
The traffic light coalition can best be described with one word: dispute.
But what happens if the government collapses?
Possible scenarios:
Munich – The Federal Republic has been speculating about an end to traffic lights for months.
Now the break seems within reach: The fact that the SPD is shaking up the debt brake was always a red line for the FDP.
Political scientist Jürgen Falter from the University of Mainz says: “I think it is unlikely that the traffic light will burst.
The FDP would have no other chance than to leave the government.” But if that were to happen, one should “be prepared for the possible consequences.”
We spoke to him and constitutional lawyer Walther Michl from the Bundeswehr University in Neubiberg about four scenarios.
Scenario 1: After the traffic light coalition breaks, go to the polls again
If a government loses the trust of its citizens, new elections seem to be the most natural consequence.
However, the constitutional hurdles are high.
“I think that is unlikely because the Chancellor would have to ask the Bundestag for a vote of confidence,” says Walther Michl.
Olaf Scholz would thus give the MPs the opportunity to overthrow him.
If he does not receive a majority, he can ask the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag - after which new elections would have to take place within 60 days.
Robert Habeck, Olaf Scholz and Christian Lindner: the three heads of the traffic light coalition.
© TOBIAS SCHWARZ/AFP
So far, three chancellors have brought about new elections in this way: Willy Brandt (1972), Helmut Kohl (1982) and Gerhard Schröder (2005).
All three wanted to fail with their question of trust.
Political scientist Falter does not believe that Scholz will take this step.
“Personally, I would consider a clean break with new elections to be the best thing for our country.
But that won’t happen.” For the parties in the traffic light coalition, this could mean “political suicide”.
All three would lose votes and the FDP could even be thrown out of the Bundestag.
Scenario 2: Bundestag replaces the Chancellor after the traffic lights end
With the constructive vote of no confidence, the Bundestag can dismiss the Chancellor – as long as a successor is elected at the same time.
This is intended to prevent anti-democratic forces from overthrowing the government without electing a new one, as was the case in the Weimar Republic.
“The constructive vote of no confidence requires that at least one major partner changes camp,” explains Falter.
“That could be the case if the Union and the SPD were to elect a new chancellor together.” However, it is “very unlikely” that the SPD would agree to a chancellor from the Union.
“And it is even more unlikely that the Union will go into government as a junior partner under an SPD chancellor.”
It would also be possible that the Greens and FDP would work together with the Union to try to elect a new chancellor.
“But that’s almost beyond my imagination,” says Falter.
“After all, the FDP would leave the traffic light coalition because it can't work with the Greens.” So far, only one chancellor has been dismissed through a constructive vote of no confidence: In 1982, the MPs overthrew SPD chancellor Helmut Schmidt to make room for the CDU -Man Helmut Kohl.
Scenario 3: Flying change of government from traffic lights to grand coalition
Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) offered the Union months ago to join the Scholz government as a junior partner so that the Greens and FDP would be kicked out.
“In principle, this is not a problem because the Chancellor can change his ministers as he sees fit,” explains constitutional lawyer Michl.
“The only question is whether the Union really wants to subordinate itself to the SPD when its poll numbers are almost twice as high.”
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Political scientist Falter is also skeptical - in his opinion, Söder was not serious about the proposal.
“That was purely tactical.” The Union would have to “continue at least part of the policy that was started by the traffic lights,” he says.
That would significantly damage the Union for the next election in 2025.
Scenario 4: The SPD and the Greens continue to govern alone instead of the traffic lights
If the traffic light breaks, Falter believes a minority government is the most likely scenario: the FDP leaves the government, the SPD and the Greens continue to govern without a majority.
Scholz still has hope that acceptance of his policies will increase, says the political scientist.
And: “We would certainly harmonize better with each other than at traffic lights, which in turn could be a positive signal to the population.”
However, the government would have to scrape together a new majority in the Bundestag for each law.
“What do you do if the AfD agrees for tactical reasons?” says lawyer Michl.
“It will be particularly difficult when it comes to passing a budget law for 2025.” He doubts that the FDP wants to cause such chaos by leaving.