As of: February 21, 2024, 5:21 p.m
By: Andreas Höß
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In the election campaign: US President Joe Biden.
© NICHOLAS KAMM
The USA is considering weakening its electrification targets in transport.
One expert fears that Europe could also follow suit.
Washington/Munich – “You all know I’m a car guy”.
US President Joe Biden said this at the auto show in Detroit in autumn 2022 - and at the same time praised the ramp-up of electromobility as a job driver for US industry.
Now the role may be coming backwards.
In any case, the US President is apparently thinking about significantly weakening the electrification goals in the USA.
The previous goal was for two-thirds of newly registered vehicles on US roads to be electric by 2032.
According to an adjustment that could be presented in the course of the spring, there should now be significantly fewer, American media such as the “New York Times” report.
There are probably no exact figures, but there are targets of 40 to 60 percent circulating.
This may not be a complete turnaround, but it would definitely be a step backwards for e-mobility.
And that could also call Europe's exit from combustion engines into question.
Four problems for Biden
The reason for the change: Biden faces four problems when it comes to transportation.
First: Although the electric pioneer Tesla is a US brand, relatively few electric cars have been sold in America so far.
In 2022 it was six percent of total sales, in 2023 eight.
In addition to high sales prices and cheap gasoline, the deficits in the charging infrastructure are also to blame.
In Europe, however, the electric share is 15 percent and in China it is 24 percent.
Secondly, companies like General Motors, Toyota and Volkswagen have been pushing for the US targets to be softened for some time.
They are having problems making the switch and have so far earned more with combustion engines.
Thirdly, unions criticize that electrification will cost thousands of jobs.
And fourthly, the Republicans around Donald Trump have long since made the car a campaign issue and thus an ideological point of contention.
But what signaling effect does the possible US pivot have on the rest of the world?
In any case, it comes at a time when electrification goals are shaky elsewhere.
In the fall, Great Britain postponed a planned ban on the sale of combustion cars from 2030 to 2035. China just presented a car strategy in which, in addition to battery vehicles, hybrids and combustion engines that are fueled with biofuel and synthetic fuels play a role up to the year 2060.
And in Germany, sales of electric cars halved to ten percent in January because subsidies were canceled.
For this reason alone, the federal government's plan to have 15 million electric cars on German roads by 2030 is becoming increasingly unrealistic, says Professor Stefan Bratzel from the Center of Automotive Management.
“As of today there are more like seven or eight million.”
Skid marks on electrification
Even if countries like Canada and Norway are sticking to bans on combustion engines, there are signs of a slowdown in electrification.
Car expert Bratzel also confirms this.
He can imagine that even the end of combustion engines in Europe in 2035 is on the brink again.
The conservative EPP group in the EU has already announced that it will scrap the ban when it is reviewed again in 2026.
Bratzel thinks that's possible.
“With the current mood and the difficult economic situation, it may be that there is a delay for combustion engines and that priorities shift away from climate protection,” he says.
However, this is not necessarily a reason for manufacturers to breathe a sigh of relief.
Many of them still earn good money with combustion engines.
On the other hand, they have invested billions in the growing electric market and have partly planned end dates for diesel and gasoline engines.
A change in policy would call this into question.
BMW remains relaxed
This is still relatively relaxed at BMW, where they define e-mobility as the future, but want to continue building all types of drive.
“We can serve the requirements of all markets and regions – regardless of whether they only rely on electromobility or are open to technology,” says a spokesman.
At Audi, where the last combustion engine is supposed to roll off the production line in 2033, things sound different.
“In the coming years, we will align our business plans with regulatory developments and sales developments in the markets,” it says there, somewhat cryptically.
Whether this happens sooner or later in individual markets “will ultimately be decided by customers and legislation,” says Audi.
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So is the combustion engine on the verge of a renaissance, as some politicians and managers secretly wish?
Industry expert Bratzel believes this dream is dangerous.
He also advocates against a major extension of the term.
Not just because the climate goals can only be achieved with electric drives.
But also for industrial policy reasons.
“Electric drives are the most important future field in car manufacturing, ahead of digitalization and autonomous driving,” he says.
If you want to survive, you have to survive here - especially in the world's largest car market, China, where one in four new cars is already electric, and the trend is rising quickly.
Competitors such as BYD and Tesla have long since overtaken the former German top dogs there.
“If politicians cancel all exit plans, they will not only unsettle consumers, but will also take pressure off German manufacturers, which could cause them to slow down in the development of batteries and electric drives,” believes Bratzel.
“This could take revenge and further weaken their position on the global market.”