In June 2024, Mexico will undoubtedly have a president for the first time in its history.
A strong symbol in this country, considered by the UN to be the most dangerous in Latin America for women.
Because two candidates dominate the presidential race before the verdict at the polls.
Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate of the ruling party
Head of government of Mexico City from 2018 to 2023, Claudia Sheinbaum, 61, is the candidate of the ruling left-nationalist party, Movement for National Regeneration (Morena).
“A pure product of the party of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador,” explains Jean-Louis Martin, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).
The granddaughter of Jewish grandparents who left Bulgaria and Lithuania, she is a physicist by training and holds a doctorate in environmental sciences.
A technocrat profile which clashes with that of the outgoing president, considered a political animal.
“She has the profile of a hard worker, a rigorous person, even if she is not always very easy in her human relationships,” analyzes Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky, director of the Latin America Observatory at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation.
In her program, she defends her mentor's economic record and promises "an austere government that will maintain financial and fiscal discipline."
Claudia Sheinbaum also calls for the strengthening of social programs, the continuation of public investments in order to develop the different regions, the strengthening of public education and the health system, while continuing to increase the minimum wage, "beyond inflation.”
A convinced ecologist, she proposes in particular to accelerate the energy transition and to promote policies for the restoration and protection of natural resources.
Xóchitl Gálvez Ruiz, the opponent
Facing her, Xóchitl Gálvez Ruiz, 60 years old, business leader and politician, who became a senator in 2018, from a modest background.
Originally from Tepatepec, a town in the state of Hidalgo in central Mexico, this robotics engineer regularly highlights her Otomí origins, notably by wearing a huipil, a traditional blouse.
Under the presidency of Vicente Fox (2000-2006), she headed the Commission on Indigenous Peoples.
She is the candidate of a coalition of three opposition parties, “Frente amplio”, formed by the National Action Party (PAN), classified on the right, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which remained in power for 70 years, and the center-left Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).
An alliance with the only common point of wanting to defeat Morena.
“Gálvez's campaign is more difficult, because the colors she wears struggle to convince Mexicans,” underlines Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky, who highlights the ideological differences between the three movements maintaining the vagueness on a common political program.
Xóchitl Gálvez Ruiz borrows left-wing themes by being favorable to the rights acquired by the LGBTQ + community and by women.
She also defends social aid, such as study grants, while being “very attached to free trade”.
“My golden rule: no laziness, no crooks, no bastards,” she confided to AFP, with assertive frankness.
A race already won?
Mexicans are called to the polls on June 2.
But the battle seems won in advance.
Leading in the polls, Claudia Sheinbaum is buoyed by the popularity of the outgoing president.
“This is the real question of this election: is she going to be an enforcer of López Obrador, who will keep power behind the curtain?,” asks Jean-Louis Martin.
She will have to navigate between her own ideas, her personality and an outgoing president who will maintain control of the party and Congress.
To try to stand out, the opponent Xóchitl Gálvez Ruiz does not hesitate to criticize the policies of the outgoing president.
She has already affirmed that she would fight “with her ovaries” against the violence which is shaking the country and against trafficking, denouncing the “laxity” of the power in place.
However, “we do not see a strong demand for improving security in this campaign,” notes Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky.
For now, it’s social that takes precedence.”
Another subject, which could interfere in the presidential election and benefit the opposition which poses as a “defender of democracy”: the question of counter-powers, journalists or established bodies, regularly criticized by López Obrador.
On Sunday, tens of thousands of opponents demonstrated to denounce the constitutional revision project desired by the head of state, which notably plans to elect members of the judiciary by popular vote.
The demonstrators fear justice will be delivered with the support of the majority party in power and are demanding “a free vote”.