Days ago,
Clarín
said that
one of the few issues on which there is no rift
between libertarian, Kirchnerist and Juntos voters is
inflation
.
For all three groups, it is the country's main problem.
A
new national survey
accessed by this newspaper confirms part of this phenomenon but warns of an interesting change.
It happens that although the price increase continues to be at the top of everyone's concerns, the percentage of those who
believe that the increases will begin to subside
is growing strongly .
Is Javier Milei celebrating?
The study is from
Fixer
, a consulting firm that works mainly with clients of Together for Change and the private sector.
Between the 10th and 14th of this month,
1,511 cases
were reported throughout the country, with +/- 3% margin of error.
Since mid-2018
, still with Mauricio Macri in the Casa Rosada, the pollster began to measure a
particular economic parameter
: it asked the interviewees if they believed that
inflation was going to rise, fall or stay the same the following month
.
The entire series has a
pessimistic bias
.
What does this mean?
That in these more than 5 years, those who were predicting a greater increase in prices always predominated (and were right, unfortunately).
Milei touched
the peak
when he took office.
She is not surprising
: during the campaign she had announced a fierce adjustment and an initial inflationary flash to avoid a catastrophe.
The beginning is fulfilled, the end is still open.
In this context, in December of last year, 89% of those surveyed said that inflation would continue to increase. But in February of this year, the number was reduced by half: 45%. In parallel, those who believe that prices will decline rose from 2% to 29%. Those who believe there will be no changes complete: they went from 8% to 25% in two months.
When the results are detailed according to different filters, more interesting data appears.
For example,
men are much more optimistic than women
: 37% of them assure that inflation will decrease compared to 23% of them.
It doesn't attract much attention either.
Milei's voter is basically male.
And precisely
the libertarian voters (55%), plus those of Together for Change (46%), are the ones who support the optimism
.
Those from Unión por la Patria are at the other pole: only 4% consider that prices will drop.
"Although it is a fact that would seem positive, there may also be libertarian or Together for Change voters who believe that inflation will drop due to the impact of the recession, because people will not have money. And that is not good for Milei," they add in Fixer.
The new crack
According to Fixer
analysts
, the latter confirms the formation of the new crack, around the figure of Milei.
Polarization appears in the survey in two other tables.
One economic and another more political.
The first is linked to economic expectations. The firm consults on forecasts two years from now: 41% believe that "the situation will be better than the current one", against 46% who predict that "it will be worse."
When you look at discrimination by vote, 80% of libertarians are optimistic and 84% of those from Unión por la Patria are pessimistic.
A similar distribution is seen when asking about the
President's management
.
45
%
say that "
it is making the changes that Argentina needs
" and
43%
describe it as "
more of the same
."