As of: February 21, 2024, 10:04 a.m
By: Diane Kofer
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After his victory in the German preliminary round, Isaak is allowed to compete at the ESC.
But the bookmakers in Malmö see black for his song “Always On The Run”.
Malmö – At the ESC preliminary round on February 16, 2024, nine acts were presented as part of a live broadcast on ARD.
Everything was represented, from absolute newcomers to a pop star to Max Mutzke (42), who has already traveled to the music event for Germany.
In the end, 28-year-old Isaak won.
He performs the song “Always On The Run” at the finale in Malmö, Sweden.
But very few people are likely to bet on his victory - the bookmakers see virtually no chances for him.
German ESC candidate Isaak criticized: chances of winning are almost zero
After the preliminary decision, the German ESC participant Isaak was literally torn apart by the fans.
Although he received the most votes from the international jury and viewers the evening before, he had to listen to criticism from all sides online the next day.
The reason: Almost no one can imagine that the former “X-Factor” candidate and his song will outdo the competition on May 11, 2024.
And this opinion of the ESC fans is also reflected in the betting odds.
Bookmakers do not recommend betting on the German artist.
The betting odds are displayed
on
eurovisionworld.com .
Of the 37 participating countries, Ukraine is considered to have the highest chance of winning.
The bookmakers estimate the chance of winning at a whopping 18 percent - which puts them way up there and pretty far behind in first place.
Italy, Israel and Great Britain follow with seven and six percent respectively.
For Germany, however, the bookmakers see black: Isaak is far away from the top group in 16th place - with just a two percent chance of winning.
The last ten years: Germany at the ESC
2014: Elaiza - "Is It Right?" - 18th place
2015: Ann Sophie - "Black Smoke" - 27th place
2016: Jamie-Lee - "Ghost" - 26th place
2017: Levina - "Perfect Live" - 25th place
2018: Michael Schulte - "You Let Me Walk Alone" - 4th place
2019: S!sters - "Sister" - 25th place
2020: Ben Dolic - "Violent Thing" - cancellation due to the pandemic
2021: Jendric - "I Don't Feel Hate “ – 25th place
2022: Malik Harris – “Rockstars” – 25th place
2023: Lord Of The Lost – “Blood & Glitter” – 26th place
After the German preliminary decision: betting odds halved within a few hours
The biggest disappointment when analyzing the betting odds is probably not the low chance itself, but the rapid decline after the German preliminary decision.
In the predictions for the final evening, Isaak's competitor Ryk performed best.
In parallel with its top odds, Germany's chance of overall victory had also increased significantly.
According to
esc-kompakt.de
, Germany was given a four percent chance of winning just a few hours before the preliminary decision.
When the audience chose Isaak, the value was halved within a very short time.
The artist and song were severely punished in the betting odds.
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Isaak beat the competition in the German ESC preliminary round.
But the experts are sure: With his song “Always On The Run” he has no chance.
© picture alliance/dpa/dpa Pool |
Christoph Soeder (photomontage)
In fact, many experienced artists have already spoken out and made no secret of the fact that they don't think much of the German act for Malmö.
An ESC expert only saw one bright spot among the candidates for the preliminary round - but it wasn't Isaak.
Sources used:
esc-kompakt.de, eurovisionworld.com (betting odds: as of February 20, 2024, 10:33 a.m.)