As of: February 21, 2024, 7:46 p.m
By: Lisa Mahnke
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Lukashenko remains at Putin's side and accuses Poland and NATO of joint provocation plans.
The Belarus election and the Ukraine war are closely linked.
Minsk - Shortly before the election in Belarus, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko suspects allegations of a NATO conspiracy in Poland.
Speaking in the capital Minsk, the president argued that Warsaw and Washington were planning joint provocations that would then be framed on Russia and Belarus.
“We are aware of all intelligence-led scenarios of various types of provocations and extremist actions involving militants in Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania.
And we will make them known as widely as possible,” Lukashenko said, according to
Russia’s state news agency
Tass .
The enemy or the victims in Lukashenko's accusations: Russia and Belarus.
There has been a close alliance between Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin for decades, which has shaped both the Ukraine war and the Belarusian domestic political system.
Close ties between Russia and Belarus: The dream of a Union State
Lukashenko was the only Belarusian president since the end of the Soviet Union and had to rely on Putin's support in the 2020 presidential election.
In the Ukraine war, he allowed the Kremlin to use Belarus as a starting point for Russian attacks, even though a more direct role for Belarus in the Ukraine war has so far been avoided.
Last month, according to
Newsweek
, a deal between Russia and Belarus ensured further integration of the Belarusian economy, including a focus on nuclear energy and a joint media company.
The Belarusian opposition warned against making the country even more dependent on Moscow.
The plans from Moscow and Minsk symbolize the idea of a “Union State”, i.e. a supranational union that consists only of Russia and Belarus.
In the long term, they want to return to a confederation.
“Lukashenko is probably the only dictator in the world who is giving up his own sovereignty and his own country,” said Franzishak Vyachorka, senior adviser to Belarusian opposition politician Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, according to
Newsweek
.
Zishanouskaya was Lukashenko's opponent in the 2024 presidential election.
Faux pas in provocation metaphor: Lukashenko contradicts Putin's view of World War II
"Hitler was preparing such an operation on the border with Poland in order to provoke the start of hostilities," Lukashenko argued, according to
Newsweek,
contradicting - probably accidentally - Vladimir Putin's statements in the interview with Tucker Carlson.
There the Russian president argued that Hitler had been forced to attack uncooperative Poland.
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Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko are united by a decades-long alliance and the common goal of a union state.
© picture alliance/dpa/Pool AFP/AP |
Olga Maltseva
Lukashenko was also already prepared for counterarguments: “Here and there there will be shouts like: 'Oh, he's escalating the situation by scaring the Poles.
This can’t be right… I’m telling the Poles and everyone else.”
Lukashenko for Russia – opposition for Ukraine: Belarus election goes hand in hand with war politics
The issues of the election in Belarus and the war in Ukraine are closely linked: While Lukashenko, who is close to Putin, sees the dream of a common “Union State” becoming more and more true, the opposition politician Tsikhanouskaya, according to the “Center for Eastern European and International Studies” (ZOiS) democratization plans and promotes Western allies - albeit with little chance.
The current President Lukashenko warned not only of an alleged American-Polish provocation plan, but also of an alleged possible “violent seizure of power” by the opposition in the parliamentary elections on February 25, 2024.
“Although elections may be coming soon in Belarus, the country's future will likely be determined by events on the battlefields of Ukraine given the country's persistent authoritarianism,” concluded Ukrainian Studies postdoctoral researcher Dr.
Emma Mateo, on the ZOiS website.
Parts of the Belarusian population would therefore see the greatest opportunity for change in weakening Putin.
(lismah)