As of: February 21, 2024, 4:51 p.m
By: Lisa Mahnke
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Press
Split
Germans fear a Russian attack, but have doubts about the Bundeswehr.
AfD and BSW supporters fall out of the pattern.
Berlin – In the current Forsa trend barometer, the majority of respondents (58 percent) believe that an attack by a NATO state by Russia is possible in the next few years.
The Ukraine war was at the top of the opinion institute's topic radar with 45 percent, followed by the federal government (31 percent) and the Middle East conflict (19 percent).
While Green Party supporters particularly often approve of the possibility of an attack on NATO at 74 percent, AfD supporters in particular, with only 35 percent approval, and potential voters for the new Alliance Wagenknecht (BSW) party with 42 percent, on average, think an attack is more likely unlikely.
Respondents also rated the risk in the East (51 percent) as slightly lower than in the West (59 percent).
Among supporters of the SPD, FDP and CDU/CSU, around 60 percent believe an attack is possible in the next few years.
Cross-party majority does not believe in a “war-ready” Bundeswehr
Although the majority of those surveyed believed in a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, only 27 percent of the survey participants believed in a “war-ready” Bundeswehr in five years.
68 percent clearly answered no to the question of war capability.
Supporters of the SPD (37 percent), the Greens (35 percent) and the FDP (39 percent) were among the most confident about preparing for a possible military attack.
26 percent of CDU/CSU supporters believed in war capability.
At 15 percent, AfD supporters were the least likely to expect a war-fighting Bundeswehr, closely followed by BSW supporters at 21 percent.
A participant in the AfD rally (2023, after the start of the war) holds a sign in the colors of Russia with the inscription “Druzhba!!!
- Friendship".
© picture alliance/dpa |
Heiko Rebsch
Majority in favor of maintaining the Bundeswehr budget – defense spending divides the AfD and BSW
Against this background, 46 percent were in favor of maintaining defense spending at two percent of Germany's economic output, while 35 percent were in favor of a further increase in spending.
The AfD and BSW also fell out on this issue.
AfD supporters were divided, but most often chose increasing spending (40 percent for increasing, 33 percent for maintaining and 27 percent for reducing).
Meanwhile, BSW supporters were the most likely of all party supporters (39 percent) to be in favor of reducing spending.
Opinions also differed among supporters of the traffic light parties.
While almost 60 percent of SPD and Green voters voted to maintain defense spending, the majority of FDP supporters (51 percent) voted to increase defense spending.
Respondents close to the FDP most often spoke in favor of an increase, closely followed by the CDU/CSU (46 percent).
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AfD and splinter parties instead of traffic lights or GroKo: Warning of Weimar conditions
If the Bundestag were to be re-elected, according to the Forsa trend barometer, only a third (34 percent) of voters would vote for traffic light parties.
After slipping below five percent, the FDP achieved a small jump in popularity and would now break the five percent hurdle again.
The CDU/CSU enjoyed the most popularity with 30 percent, followed by the AfD with 17 percent.
The new BSW party was recently at four percent, while the Left achieved an unchanged three percent.
With three percent for the Free Voters, a further nine percent would be divided among splinter parties, so that not only the AfD gains growth due to the traffic light discontent, but also small parties from the humanists to the animal rights party to the new Union of Values.
In this context, Forsa warned of the dismantling of the five percent threshold and the resulting conditions that could be similar to the Weimar Republic.
However, the majority of those surveyed (62 percent) did not believe in an early end to the traffic light coalition; only among AfD sympathizers was there a majority (58 percent) in favor of believing that the coalition would end before the 2025 federal election.
Ultimately, however, the comparison of the Forsa Institute's preference values showed that no party was really convincing anymore.
The CDU/CSU and SPD together also achieved their lowest popularity rating since 1949, although the CDU/CSU still performed best with 30 percent.
(lismah)