As of: February 21, 2024, 6:10 p.m
By: Peter Sieben
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Press
Split
On February 24, 2022, Putin invaded Ukraine.
Millions of refugees only have temporary protection in the EU.
If a permanent solution is not found, this can have dire consequences.
Berlin - What was unthinkable for a long time became reality on February 24, 2022: Russia fired missiles into Ukraine - war in the middle of Europe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin brought destruction and death to the neighboring country and many people fled.
Around four million now live in EU countries, 1.2 million in Germany.
What's next for them, two years after the start of the Ukraine war?
Two years after the start of the war in Ukraine: protection for refugees is only temporary
The so-called temporary protection currently applies to Ukraine refugees in the European Union.
This is a type of emergency measure that the EU can take if exceptionally large numbers of people flee war in EU countries.
They then receive residence rights and living space without any major hurdles.
“But this status is, as the name suggests, only temporary,” explains Jan Schneider from the Federal Government’s Advisory Council for Migration and Integration (SVR).
The political scientist and sociologist is head of the SVR research department and recently conducted a study to investigate what options there are for Ukrainian war refugees to stay based on protection status.
This was initially valid for two years.
In autumn 2023, the EU agreed to extend it again for another year, i.e. until March 4, 2025. This is the maximum duration provided for in the EU directive.
“What happens afterwards is still completely unclear at the moment – and of course depends very much on the course of the war and the possibilities for a safe return to Ukraine,” says Schneider.
It would make sense if the EU countries developed a common strategy for the future now.
More than four million people are dependent on “a collective connection solution for the period from March 2025”.
In many cases it is not realistic for war refugees to return to Ukraine
Because: “If such a solution takes a long time or, in the worst case, is not found at all, there is a risk that several hundred thousand Ukrainians in Germany will suddenly find themselves without a secure residence status or will have to leave the country,” says Schneider.
It is possible that asylum applications would then be submitted en masse - with an extremely uncertain outcome.
In many cases, a return will probably not be possible or realistic, even if the course of the war in Ukraine develops favorably for Ukraine in the next twelve months, the expert believes: “There is a risk of a scenario here in which the authorities resort to the instrument of “We have to resort to short-term toleration – with all the negative consequences that have already been known from the last decades.”
Toleration status offers little prospects for people from Ukraine
In concrete terms, this means that people with toleration status are often not allowed to work or study in Germany and are not entitled to integration courses.
In the past this has repeatedly led to social problems, and to this day there are entire families who have only been tolerated for years or decades and live in precarious conditions.
“A common strategy at European level would be important,” says Schneider.
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There are practical options: “People who have already found employment and meet the other requirements could, for example, apply for a residence permit for employment purposes,” explains the expert.
This gives them better prospects for the future because it allows them to permanently secure their stay.
However, those affected now need appropriate advice from the immigration authorities - but so far this has “almost not been available at all”.
Ukraine needs returnees after the end of the war: mobility as a solution
And what if the war is finally over?
Then Ukraine urgently needs people to return.
That will help with reconstruction and stimulate the economy again.
“But the type of residence permit in Germany does not decide this,” says Schneider.
Commitment to Ukraine or a return there could only be supported with incentives.
“Transnational solutions such as circular mobility or remote work should therefore be increasingly considered as an option,” says the sociologist.
So for example: Working in Germany, with a focus on life in Ukraine.
Freedom of movement regulations already ensure that Ukrainians can largely determine their own place of residence in the EU.
“Against the background of Ukraine’s possible accession to the EU, this mobility should be maintained,” says Schneider.