As of: February 21, 2024, 3:27 p.m
By: Karsten Hinzmann
Comments
Press
Split
All in vain: A Ukrainian soldier in Avdiivka.
The city fell into Russian hands after heavy fighting.
© Evgeniy Maloletka/AP/dpa
Political analysts believe that another 24 months of suffering in Ukraine will put Russia's fire out.
The Avdiivkaz case: minor matter.
Avdiivka – Science agrees: There is no end in sight to the Ukraine war.
For now.
“The battle will continue to simmer for a long time,” said the German military historian Sönke Neitzel recently, using the image of a pot simmering on a low flame.
However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still raging in the city of Avdiivka - Vladimir Putin has now conquered the city.
Apparently at a shockingly high price.
The fighting around Avdiivka in Ukraine's annexed eastern Donetsk region earned the city the nickname "meat grinder," a term for battlefields that claim high casualties and use up significant resources such as armored vehicles -
Newsweek
now reports on the fighting there.
For the
Süddeutsche Zeitung
the case is clear: the capture of Avdiivka is Moscow's greatest military success since the capture of Bakhmut in May 2023 - and the result of dramatic superiority in soldiers, artillery shells and, for the first time, in the air.
However, a significant military victory looks different, but so does a decisive defeat.
No decision of major importance has yet been made in Ukraine.
However, it shows that the long-term strategy of Vladimir Putin's invading army is now failing: to simply crush the enemy due to high numerical superiority.
Using Avdiivka as an example, German political scientist Carlo Masala explained in the
Hamburger Abendblatt
that Ukraine had decided to hold Avdiivka as long as possible so that Putin's troops would be bled out as much as possible.
After all, the Russians fought doggedly for the city without it being given much tactical importance - it stands as a symbol of the mutual test of strength and currently has no significant military value, neither for the victors nor for the vanquished.
The Avdiivkaz case: Milestone for Putin's plans in Ukraine
However, the
Süddeutsche Zeitung
attaches great strategic value to the city: because of its streets as well as as a railway junction.
According to Ukrainian estimates, Moscow deployed around 40,000 soldiers to conquer the city.
Moscow could now decide to advance on the city of Pokrovsk, 40 kilometers west of Avdiivka, or to the northwest on the central garrison town of Kramatorsk.
Further north, the city of Kupyansk is also a possible target of a Russian offensive.
The Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI) believes that Avdiivka is a significant milestone for Vladimir Putin, as its author Jack Watling writes.
Russia continues to pursue its strategic goal of completely subjugating Ukraine and is convinced of victory after conquering Avdiivka.
Among the terms of surrender currently proposed by Russian mediators is Ukraine's ceding of territory already under Russian control, along with Kharkiv and some areas around Odessa.
Russia also demands that Ukraine refrain from joining NATO and install a head of state of Russia's choosing.
Apparently Russia is letting the rest of Ukraine into the European Union in return.
Gloomy prognosis: Russia and Ukraine are irreconcilable
The incompatibility of the positions of both opponents is a consensus in science, as the American political scientist John Mearsheimer
explained to the magazine
Cicero : Russia lacks the will to return Crimea and the four other areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukraine;
Ukraine absolutely wants these areas back.
“So when you talk about Ukraine's relations with the West and the territorial dispute between Kiev and Moscow, you quickly realize that there is no way to reconcile the different views and conclude a meaningful peace agreement,” he says – a bleak prognosis.
My news
2 hours ago
Ukraine in a “bad” dilemma – correspondent reports on deliberations “behind closed doors” read
Sharp sentences about Navalny from a reporter at “Lanz” horrify CDU politicians: “ZDF should be ashamed” read
“Critical to Ukraine’s ongoing fight”: Canada sends 800 new drones to Ukraine read
Lang's statements show why the Greens are really blocking the payment card law
“Beat on the heart”: New theory about Navalny’s cause of death emerged read
Internal paper shows: FDP pushes Scholz's SPD into a corner in Ukraine policy - read “Putin underestimated”.
The Russian troops have also suffered significant losses around Avdiivka, but are still increasing in size, RUSI analyzes: Even in the face of bitter resistance from the defenders, Russia knows how to hold its front line.
Watling: “Units can generally be rotated out of the line once they have lost up to a third of their strength, meaning they are considered ineffective.
While no major offensive is currently underway, Russian units are tasked with conducting small-scale tactical attacks that will inflict at least sustained casualties on Ukraine and enable Russian forces to take and hold positions, resupply forces and return to target strengths.”
Endless soldiers: Putin wants to bring 1.5 million men into arms
According to him, this fact explains the fact that Russia was able to maintain constant pressure on the city of Avdiivka for so long and ultimately successfully.
Watling continues to expect a constant influx of soldiers: Although the Russian military is running behind its goal of increasing its strength to 1.5 million soldiers, they appear to be at least 85 percent close to their target size, Watling claims.
According to him, the Kremlin assumes that it can maintain this level of recruitment until 2025.
The
Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
considers the decisive factor for the victory at Avdiivka to be that Russia had regained air superiority, i.e. had succeeded for the first time in the two years of the war in establishing superiority in the air with fighter jets and helicopters and before its advance Troops were also able to attack well-fortified Ukrainian positions.
The RUSI calculates the total losses of the Russian aircraft crews at 159 soldiers, which should be viewed as a serious loss of competence given the unevenness of the flight hours within the Russian squadrons.
Nevertheless, the Russian Aerospace Forces could continue to cause devastating casualties among Ukrainian forces with standoff munitions such as glide bombs.
After Russia began running towards Avdiivka in October 2023, indications grew day by day that the defenders were apparently running out of soldiers, ammunition, drones and anti-aircraft systems.
Tanks that could have fired 120 grenades a day in the Ukrainian counteroffensive in autumn 2022 only had a maximum of 20 by the end of 2023;
According to the
Kyiv Independent
, artillerymen are currently reporting that instead of 40 grenades they can only fire one.
Armada like in Soviet times: Ukraine prevents the creation of a Russian tank army
The facts about the production competence of the Russian arms industry are rare, and the speculation is even wilder, for example when it comes to the construction of new tanks: Just last March, Putin announced the production of 1,600 new tanks.
But more important for Western observers: Russia is currently modernizing many of its old T-80 tanks.
“Several important conclusions can be drawn from this, such as: due to the war with Ukraine, Russian production is currently unable to meet the needs of tanks for the Russian army,” Bulgarian military observers claim.
According to the Bulgarians, Russia is trying by hook or by crook to return to the Soviet concept of a fleet of many thousands of tanks.
The fact that Russia has incurred such immense losses around Avdiivka suggests that Ukrainian defenders can effectively torpedo Russia's buildup of a Soviet-like military force.
What in turn puts the Western powers under enormous pressure to act: Russian determination relies on the trust in the hesitation of Western countries to supply Ukraine more than before - which leads Jack Watling from RUSI to the thesis.
“If Ukraine's partners continue to provide its army with sufficient ammunition and training support to mitigate Russian attacks in 2024, it is unlikely that Russia will achieve significant success in 2025.
If Russia sees no prospect of success in 2025 due to its inability to improve the quality of armed forces for offensive operations, this means that it will have difficulty forcing Kiev to surrender by 2026.”
Watling believes that after 2026, the mutual attrition will end with Russia's fighting strength extinguished.
(Karsten Hinzmann)