As the conflict soon enters its third year, no compromise is in sight.
Ukraine is in great difficulty, since the mobilization of new soldiers to replace those who have been fighting for a long time is a burning issue...
Le Figaro
explains the situation linked to the conflict.
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No compromise in sight with Russia in a position of strength
After two years of total war, no compromise is emerging between Ukraine, in great difficulty, and a Russia reinvigorated by the erosion of Western support for kyiv and the hypothesis of a return of Trump to the White House.
Diplomats and analysts, in Moscow or on the side of kyiv and its supporters, agree on at least one point: 2024 will be another year of war.
And in the current state of the conflict,
“there is nothing that the belligerents can negotiate”
except a
“capitulation”
of one or the other, summarizes Fyodor Loukyanov, director of the Foreign and Defense Policy Council. , a think tank close to the Kremlin.
For kyiv, it is inconceivable to negotiate until Russian troops have withdrawn from the territories they occupy.
Vladimir Putin, for his part, assured of being reappointed for a new term in the Kremlin during the March election, repeats that a defeat for Russia is
“impossible”
and is playing for time by observing the weakening of Western support for Kiev.
In terms of resources, the balance weighs in favor of Russia, which can, according to Ukrainian sources, send 30,000 new soldiers to the front every month, and whose economy has fully entered war mode in 2023. In contrast , Ukraine, for which the war began in 2014 in Donbass and with the annexation of Crimea by Russia, is becoming exhausted and struggling to mobilize.
After two years of unwavering national unity, political-military differences are exacerbated in kyiv, with the departure of the very popular army chief Valery Zalouzhny.
“Russia is starting to think it can win
,” said Polish analyst Marek Mendiszak of the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw.
“This feeling of victory is fueled by the fall in Western military support and the political context”
in the United States, hanging on a possible return of Donald Trump during the November presidential election.
A return of Donald Trump to the White House anguishes Ukrainians and Europeans.
The former American president, who assured that he was capable of ending the conflict
“in 24 hours”
if he was re-elected, could also cut aid to Ukraine.
Main support of kyiv with more than 110 billion released since 2022, Washington has failed for months to vote for new funds for Ukraine, due in particular to pressure from Donald Trump on its troops, the majority in the House of Representatives.
And Europe, which has provided 28 billion euros in military aid, is struggling to fulfill its promises, and will in any case not be able to make up for any American failure in the short term.
In Ukraine, the difficult enlistment of new recruits for the front
The mobilization of hundreds of thousands of new soldiers to replace those who have been fighting for a long time is a burning - and politically perilous - issue in Ukraine, where the conflict soon enters its third year.
Serguii Ogorodnyk, 39, who commands a company in the Airborne Forces, explains:
"People need time off, not only to recover and continue fighting but also to rebuild their civilian lives
. "
The soldier affirms that the feeling of
“injustice”
towards those who have not yet been called to fight is omnipresent among the troops deployed on the front.
To remedy the situation, a controversial bill facilitating recruitment was passed by parliament at first reading at the beginning of February but the text also triggered a lively debate.
And the prolongation of the war, the stagnation of the front after the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive of 2023 undermined the enthusiasm of future soldiers.
According to Anton Grouchetsky of the International Institute of Sociology in kyiv, uncertainty over the sustainability of Western support for Ukraine also has an impact.
“Ukrainians were ready to die on the battlefield when they felt strongly supported.
If they know that they will not have weapons to fight, it is demotivating
,” he notes.
A series of corruption scandals and the army's reputation as a bureaucratic hell have also discouraged those who are hesitant.
Some agencies are trying to make enlisting simpler, such as Lobby
But modernizing the system
“is a very big challenge”
, recognizes its CEO Vladyslav Greziev.
He says his site has received more than 67,000 applications.
“We help people take the plunge into the armed forces, because they have more clarity and control over their future
,” he says.