As of: February 22, 2024, 8:04 a.m
By: Sven Hauberg
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After the deaths of two fishermen, the signs point to confrontation between China and Taiwan.
The USA calls for restraint, but Beijing creates facts.
Kinmen is a curiosity of world history: The small archipelago lies directly off China's coast; from the beach you can see the high-rise facades of the Chinese city of Xiamen with the naked eye.
However, Kinmen is controlled by Taiwan, the democratically governed island republic that Beijing claims as its own.
Until the end of the 1970s, communist China shelled the island almost daily and Kinmen was a restricted area.
Today the island is a popular tourist destination - and has been the scene of tensions between Beijing and Taipei for a few days now.
It started a week ago.
Last Wednesday, according to Taiwanese sources, a Chinese fishing boat illegally entered the waters off the island and capsized after a chase with the coast guard.
Four fishermen went overboard and two of them died a short time later in a hospital.
Beijing then spoke of a “malicious incident” and blamed Taiwan’s ruling party for it.
China used "various pretexts to forcibly seize mainland fishing boats and treat mainland fishermen roughly and dangerously," said China's Taiwan Affairs Office.
Taipei said it regretted the incident but had acted in accordance with applicable laws.
China is increasingly shifting the reality on the Taiwan Strait to its own advantage
This Monday it was a Taiwanese boat that came into the sights of the Chinese authorities.
Shortly before five o'clock in the afternoon, the small excursion steamer "King Xia" was intercepted by two Chinese coast guard ships just off the coast of Kinmen after it went slightly off course.
The eleven crew members were checked by several Chinese officials for around half an hour, after which the ship was escorted back to Kinmen.
Kuan Bi-ling, head of Taiwan's Ocean Affairs Council, said China's actions had "hurt our people's feelings and caused panic."
On Tuesday, a Chinese coast guard ship entered the waters around Kinmen again.
Something else may be more dangerous than the incidents themselves: China is increasingly shifting the reality in the Taiwan Strait to its own advantage.
China, like the rest of Taiwan, has always considered Kinmen to be part of its own national territory and therefore also the waters around the islands as its own territorial waters.
So far, Beijing has respected the de facto border between Kinmen and the mainland.
This has changed now.
Last weekend, China announced regular inspections around Kinmen, and Beijing said there had "never been anything like 'prohibited' or 'restricted' waters" around the island.
The tacit consensus between Beijing and Taipei is now history.
China is trying to "undermine and challenge Taiwan's ability to manage these waters,"
CNN
quoted political scientist Ian Chong of the National University of Singapore as saying.
Nationalist Chinese commentators are already celebrating the events as a “breakthrough”.
China is establishing “a new normal,” said Beijing law professor Tian Feilong.
The fortified beach of Kinmen, an offshore island - and behind it the Chinese city of Xiamen.
© Sam Yeh/AFP
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Would the US go to war for Kinmen?
China has no longer respected the so-called median line, the unofficial border between the two countries, for several years.
Almost daily, Beijing sends fighter jets and warships near Taiwan, some of which repeatedly cross the median line.
In addition, Chinese observation balloons have been regularly flying over the main Taiwan island for several weeks.
Observers speak of so-called “grey zone activities”, i.e. military maneuvers that do not go quite as far as a direct attack.
The US called on both sides to show restraint on Tuesday.
Without directly addressing what happened around Kinmen, Joe Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the US was "opposed to any kind of action, from any side, that undermines peace and stability."
Washington does not have diplomatic relations with the Taiwanese government, but supports the island state with arms deliveries.
In addition, President Biden has repeatedly stated that his country would provide military support to Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
However, military experts doubt whether this promise will also apply if China does not attack the main Taiwan island itself, but only the small offshore islands such as Kinmen.
In any case, the USA is unlikely to start a war with China because of the small island with around 120,000 inhabitants.