As of: February 22, 2024, 1:49 p.m
By: Felix Durach
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A Trump effect is already evident among the European population.
This could have consequences for Ukrainian arms deliveries.
© Matt Rourke/dpa
US aid to Ukraine is stalling.
Trump's re-election could make the situation even worse.
The mood in society is becoming increasingly pessimistic.
Washington DC - The Ukrainian armed forces are groaning along the front line under the effects of the lack of aid to Ukraine.
The soldiers are particularly lacking in artillery ammunition.
A decisive disadvantage that gives Russian troops the opportunity to advance into eastern Ukraine.
The loss of Avdiivka is just the latest example.
The upper hand in the Ukraine war is threatening to tip decisively towards President Vladimir Putin's troops - and things could get even tougher for Kiev.
If former President Donald Trump returns to the White House in the 2024 US election, this could herald the end of US aid to Ukraine.
The 77-year-old already threatened to cut off Kiev's money during the election campaign.
But Trump could just be the first domino that sets off a chain reaction.
Trump as a driving force?
Many Europeans would restrict arms sales to Ukraine
As part of a study, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) asked over 17,000 people in various European countries about their attitude to the war in Ukraine.
The result: A third of respondents (33 percent) would prefer the EU to follow the US in reducing aid if Trump is re-elected.
Only 20 percent of those surveyed would want to increase support in this case.
21 percent said they would prefer the level of support to remain unchanged.
With a view to the advancing war in Ukraine, the authors of the study observed a trend among the European population towards pessimism with regard to the war in Ukraine.
More and more people do not believe that Ukraine can achieve victory on the front lines.
Almost two years after the start of the war, the situation along the front line has hardened.
The conflict has developed into a bitter trench warfare.
Battles for individual cities such as Bakhmut or Avdiivka often last several months and cause significant losses on both sides.
Putin's troops are said to have lost more soldiers in the capture of Avdiivka than in ten years in Afghanistan.
Ukraine war stalls: no new Ukrainian offensive expected in 2024
There is currently no change in the situation at the front.
The chairman of the European Committee in the Bundestag, Anton Hofreiter (Greens), no longer expects an offensive by Ukraine in the calendar year 2024 - also because of the lack of US aid.
Kiev lacks ammunition and support from the USA, Hofreiter told
ntv
on Wednesday .
If Russia at least does not gain any further terrain, this is “still the best that Ukraine can achieve in the coming months,” said Hofreiter.
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It is crucial that the Ukrainian army manages to “hold the front this year,” said Hofreiter.
“If Europe's production of ammunition and other equipment hopefully increases during this time, the Ukrainian army could be in a position to gain the upper hand in the defensive war against Russia in 2025.” The scenario drawn by Hofreiter would also assume that the European states would commit to supporting Ukraine in the long term.
Ammunition shortage on the front: Ukraine has “clear fire inferiority”
Military expert Gustav Gressel recently explained to Merkur.de
from
IPPEN.MEDIA
what effects the lack of ammunition is already having on the fighting along the front line
.
“The Ukrainians have a pretty clear fire inferiority to the Russians.
The Russians are taking advantage of this,” Gressel explained.
This would allow Russian troops, among other things, to keep artillery in the positions without having to fear their destruction.
In addition, the inferiority would make it easier for Russian shock troops to storm Ukrainian positions.
Weapons deliveries in the Ukraine war – Biden in a clinch with the House of Representatives
Jake Sullivan, US President Joe Biden's national security adviser, said last week regarding the situation in the Ukraine war: "We are receiving more and more reports of Ukrainian soldiers running out of ammunition at the front or even rationing it "The Ukrainians' position is weakened by a lack of deliveries of ammunition, air defense systems and other equipment, he emphasized.
The debate over US aid to Ukraine is already showing how deep the rifts are between Democrats and Republicans in this area.
The US House of Representatives continues to block a $60 billion aid package.
The Republicans have a slim majority there.
The Senate – in which Democrats have the majority – had already passed the package.
Biden appealed to Republicans to take responsibility after the fall of Avdiivka.
“History is watching the House of Representatives.
The failure to support Ukraine at this critical moment will never be forgotten,” he said on Friday evening (February 16).
US aid for Ukraine: Trump casts his shadow ahead
But Trump continues to put pressure on the Republicans in the debate.
The former president hopes to delay the vote even further.
The authors of the ECFR study were also able to observe another trend in their surveys: the Trump effect.
The populist is already influencing public opinion in Europe, even though he has not yet been officially named as challenger to incumbent Biden.
Shortly after the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Trump flirted with the fact that if he were re-elected, he could end the conflict in 24 hours.
However, the former US President has not yet explained how he intends to do this.
One thing is certain, however: If Trump were to completely stop financial aid for Ukraine, it would significantly worsen Kiev's chances in the war against Russia.
Regardless of whether European states would follow Trump’s example.
(fd with material from AFP)