The values of the two main products that Argentina exports
continue in free fall
and fewer dollars are expected to enter the country.
This Friday, soybeans fell again and closed in the Chicago market at US$416, the lowest value since December 8, 2020. Since the year began, the oilseed lost 10% of its value.
Meanwhile, corn closed at US$157 in the international market, and hit its lowest levels since November 4.
It marks a decrease of 13% compared to the first business day of 2024.
Both crops are influenced by the prospects for an abundant harvest in South America, mainly Argentina and Brazil.
For corn, there is a record US harvest and high stocks, while in the case of soybeans, low demand from China also adds pressure.
Added to this is the drop in crops due to the heat wave that occurred between the end of January and the beginning of February.
According to the work of the Rosario Stock Exchange, corn production will be 57 million tons, 2 million tons less than estimated in January.
And 49.5 million tons of soybeans will be threshed, 2.5 million tons less than a month ago.
Dollars
According to the Rosario Stock Exchange, the value of corn exports for the entire cycle would be US$ 7,657 million, an increase of US$ 1,289 million in foreign exchange income from sales of the cereal compared to the previous cycle.
Thus, the estimated growth in external sales in value could reach 20% year-on-year, being considerably less than the increase in volume.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) estimated two weeks ago that the soybean harvest would reach 52.5 million tons, the highest volume in the last four campaigns.
And it projected that exports of the soybean complex (beans, flour and oil) would rise by 61.5%, which represents US$8,138 million more than in 2022/2023, reaching US$21,368 million.
Now, with this new scenario, lower production and prices, this initial projection could drop.
Main export products
According to Indec data, exports from the field led the ranking in 2023. In volume, corn, soybean meal and crude oil reached the podium with 23.9 million, 17.4 million and 6.9 million tons, respectively.
In value, soybean flour was the product that brought the highest income to the country, with US$ 8,249 million.
They were followed by corn, with US$ 6,212 million, and utilities, with US$ 4,771 million.
Good news
Argentina's total exports in January reached US$ 4,498 million, which represents an increase of 9.6% compared to the same month in 2023 (equivalent to US$ 473 million), mainly due to the increase in the quantities sold, which grew by 211%, given that this month there were general price drops of 9.4%.
The data comes from the latest Foreign Trade report released by Indec.
One of the products that drove the rise was wheat.
According to the organization's data, US$565 million were sent abroad, 278% more than the same month last year, which was affected by the fierce drought that reduced the harvest.