Interpol's 'number two': “The end of the war in Ukraine will leave criminal groups much better armed”

Wars are also a testing ground for criminals, who emerge from them much more dangerous and better armed.

“Some cybercriminals operating in Russia and Ukraine have made the leap from pure crime to fighting each other, and have increased their own capabilities.

Right now they seek to harm the enemy, as part of a war conflict.

But when they return to conventional crime, they will be more prepared and more ruthless.”

The person who makes this warning is the British Stephen Kavanagh, current

number two

at Interpol.

He is running for the position of general secretary of this centenary police organization - the general assembly for the election of the position will be held in November - and he has agreed to speak with EL PAÍS about the security challenges facing the world.

“We are already witnessing some evidence of the sale of this weaponry in other areas of the world.

And that is something that will have an impact on Europe, once the war ends, for 15 or 20 years.

There will be much better armed criminals,” he predicts.

Before serving under the German Jürgen Stock, who has served a decade as head of the institution, Kavanagh spent three decades at New Scotland Yard, and as chief commissioner of Essex Police.

He has coordinated the fight against terrorism, has been in charge of the security of the British royal family and directed the Digital National Intelligence strategy to confront crime strongly reinforced thanks to technology.

Kavanagh is one of those who cling to Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a tool capable of turning the police effort into something radically different.

“The main objective of the police should be to prevent crime.

We love arresting bad guys after they've committed some misdeeds, or started a new drug shipment.

But what is truly important is to avoid all those devastated lives caused by arms trafficking, or trafficking in human beings,” he explains.

Interpol's fundamental task is to connect information and connect the dots, to provide the general vision in the fight against organized crime that is lost from a purely national perspective.

“We have seen it recently, with important anti-drug operations on the west coast of Africa or in Ireland.

When called upon, we are able to support partner countries by analyzing all financial, communications or transport data.

We are capable of establishing connections that no other organization in the world is capable of making,” but the amount of information is already taking on such a dimension that only through the machine learning of the new Artificial Intelligence can this web be deciphered, defends Kavanagh.

That is why he has no hesitation in defending the coup that the French police authorities took when they decrypted Encrochat, the hidden communication system that thousands of criminals around the world used to talk to each other.

France distributed the captured conversations between security services of the affected countries, so that each could use them in their own investigations.

The vast majority of the messages were related to drug trafficking, and security forces across half the planet were stunned by a level and complexity of crime much higher than they thought.

Criminal organizations are now seeking international justice to deactivate this coup and annul an indiscriminate system of interception of communications without prior judicial authorization.

“Many of these crimes are not reported at a police station.

They go unnoticed.

Abuse of minors on the Internet, dark commercial exchanges, crimes against the environment or the brutal contamination of African waters through illegal mining operations.

None of that ends up being reported,” says Kavanagh.

“I am sure that the colleagues who have intercepted Encrochat communications have known how to combine proportionality with necessity.

They have balanced the scale of the crimes with respect for privacy (…).

But if we do not innovate in an ethical and proportional way, in collaboration with the technology sector and with the proper advice of legal experts, security forces will fall further and further behind in the fight against crime,” he points out.

The danger of tension in the Middle East

Kavanagh knows first-hand the threat of Islamist terrorism, which London has also suffered.

And he knows how those “lone wolves” are activated, who get their ideas through forums and pages in the darkest area of ​​the internet.

Nothing stimulates these threats more than a global tension that polarizes society.

“With the series of tragic circumstances that we are seeing in the Sahel, or in Yemen, or in Palestine, there will always arise those who use them to hijack people's emotions and lead them to carry out horrible and bloody actions.

We have an important anti-terrorism network in all these areas, where Interpol has first-hand information from the local officials who know the most about the phenomenon, but it is clear that we cannot let our guard down,” he warns.

Kavanagh's preparation and capacity for the position to which he aspires are incontrovertible, but Interpol, which displays its neutrality, is also a political playing field.

The Brazilian candidate Valdecy Urquiza starts with more possibilities, because there have been many decades of control of the institution by the United States or Europe.

China has expressed implicit support for the Brazilian.

But the British Government, which saw its police connections with Europol weakened after a stormy Brexit, has opted for Interpol, and, above all, wants to reinforce its international relevance.

They are all winks towards the partners, but there is a detail that clearly affects the personal level and not a strategy.

When Kavanagh is reminded of the death of two civil guards run over by a drug boat in Barbate, he jumps out with a burst of solidarity: “Those two civil guards probably left their homes that day, they said goodbye to their partners or their children, and they trusted that they could contribute to making Spain a safer place,” he says.

“These people have sacrificed their lives for a cause far above everything else: the security of Spain, yes, but also of the EU.

Because those drug traffickers don't just traffic drugs.

They destabilize governments and economies, and ruthlessly exploit anyone who gets in their way,” he explains.

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