Let's listen to the Ukrainian Yulia and the Russian Yulia: Putin must be defeated

Faced with the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which falls this Saturday, let us ask ourselves a simple question: is Europe at war?

When I asked a room full of participants at the Munich Security Conference last Sunday, most of them raised their hands to say yes, Europe is at war.

But then I asked another question: Do you think that in your respective countries the majority of people are aware of this?

Very few raised their hands.

It has been a Munich Conference full of painful contrasts.

There were badly injured Ukrainian soldiers who told us stories of the hell at the front.

Yulia Payevska, a veteran military doctor, told us that she had seen “rivers of blood, torrents of suffering” and she spoke of the children who had “died in her arms.”

“We are the dogs of war,” she said, recalling that she herself was captured by the Russians in Mariupol, imprisoned for three months and tortured.

“Give us the weapons,” she concluded, “to end this war.”

The courage of a Russian Yulia was also present.

Yulia Navalnaya took the stand when the news of the death of her husband, Alexei Navalny, had not yet been fully confirmed, to demand that Vladimir Putin be brought to justice and to remind us that there is still another Russia fighting against tyrant.

She later recorded a tremendously moving and challenging video that can be seen on YouTube.

At the same time, all you had to do was leave the conference venue, the Bayerischer Hof hotel, to find the weekend crowds enjoying unseasonably sunny weather in pretty bars and cafes, shopping in luxury stores, or making reservations. A winter getaway to an attractive holiday destination.

A prosperous, even pampered life, typical of times of peace.

Europe at war?

It's a joke, right?

At this year's conference, Western leaders recognized that the prolongation of the war is a reality more clearly than last year, but, in general, they continue to fail to convey to their respective societies the feeling that we are facing an existential threat. .

Nor are they taking the urgent measures necessary to prevent Ukraine from suffering further battlefield defeats such as the recent Avdiivka retreat.

There are notable exceptions.

Kaja Kallas, the Estonian prime minister whom the Kremlin has just included on the “most wanted” list, has long been one of those exceptions.

Mette Frederiksen, the Danish Prime Minister, is insistent, speaks bluntly and does what she says.

“We have decided to donate all our artillery,” she said at the same meeting in which Yulia Ukraine spoke.

Denmark has also sent F-16s.

There is also Petr Pavel, former NATO general and current Czech president.

He explained to us that, in collaboration with the Danes and other countries, the Czechs have found 500,000 rounds of 155-millimeter ammunition and 300,000 rounds of 122-millimeter ammunition on world markets that could be purchased immediately to be sent to the beleaguered Ukrainian forces in the next few years. weeks.

This material would allow the Ukrainians to hold out, Pavel explained, until more supplies arrive from the Western military industry by the end of the year.

This would also give time for the United States House of Representatives to overcome its shameful Trumpist blockade and approve granting more military financing for Ukraine.

(The most grotesque scene of the conference was the moment when Republican Senator Pete Ricketts compared the invasion of Ukraine ordered by Putin to the “invasion” of illegal immigrants from Mexico.)

Now, countries like the Czech Republic and Denmark, alone, cannot possibly do what is necessary for Ukraine to stop Russia.

With the catastrophic vacillations that the United States is exhibiting, it is necessary for the major European countries—especially Germany and France—to take action, to quickly buy the ammunition that the Czechs have found, to act quickly, without bureaucracies and with the necessary and explain to their citizens why we must do it.

President Emmanuel Macron did not even go to Munich.

His bombastic rhetoric about “the rearmament of European sovereignty” and the “war economy” does not match the true scale or speed of France's aid to Ukraine.

The case of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is different.

Since a year ago I was very critical of his “scholzerías” about the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, I want to acknowledge that since then there has been a big change.

Germany is today the second country that helps Ukraine the most, after the United States.

This decision to give unconditional support has been a kind of

Wende

(turn) within the

Zeitenwende

(transcendental turning point) that Scholz initially promised, just three days after the 2022 invasion. I will never forget the conversations I had in Kiev in the summer spent with several friends who told me how calm they feel at night when they hear the characteristic, deep thunder of the German Gepard air defense cannon.

German guns are saving lives.

But now that

Zeitenwende

needs a second

Wende

.

The Scholz Government must recognize that, when supporting a side in a war against a murderous dictator, you have to truly want it to win and not just “not lose”, the formula to which Scholz and Macron frequently resort.

That's not exactly strong language, which is the only one Putin understands.

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who spoke in Munich immediately after Scholz, pointed out, “it is not just a question of supplying weapons;

The question is: are you psychologically prepared?”

The logic of peacetime, of negotiation, concessions and “everyone wins”, is of no use in this case.

Minutes before Zelensky took the stage, the German chancellor dodged a question about why he is not sending German Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Top military experts say deploying long-range missiles like the Taurus — and their American, British and French equivalents — is the only way Ukraine can quickly put military pressure back on Russia, with the threat of disrupting supply lines. through Crimea.

In short, the leaders of large European countries must take note of smaller ones, such as Denmark, the Czech Republic and Estonia.

Given the critical situation on the Ukrainian front, they have to be bolder, faster and more decisive.

And they must find a more direct, more passionate, more inspiring language, a language like that which Scholz's personal hero, former chancellor Willy Brandt, would undoubtedly have used.

Societies that continue to enjoy peace and a comfortable lifestyle, where many apparently believe that this war can soon end by negotiating a compromise peace, need a jolt to wake up.

As President Pavel said, the only sacrifice we can all make is to “reduce our own comfort.”

Physical comfort, but also psychological comfort.

Europe is at war.

It is not all at war like 80 years ago, when most European countries were directly involved in combat, but it is certainly not at peace like 20 years ago, before Putin embarked on his path of confrontation with the West.

If we do not address the urgent need for Ukraine to consolidate its defensive positions, regroup and ultimately win the war it is fighting on behalf of us all, within a few years we will face an even more direct attack from an emboldened Russia. and revanchist.

So listen to the two Yulias, the Ukrainian one and the Russian one.

Putin must be defeated.

It is the only way to “end this war.”

Timothy Garton Ash

is Professor of European Studies at the University of Oxford and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

His latest book is

Europa: A Personal History

(Taurus).

Translation by

María Luisa Rodríguez Tapia

.

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