On the night of February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine.
This Saturday the war enters its third year of fighting and the Russians have conquered between 17 and 20% of Ukrainian territory between the south and east of the country.
Things are worse than ever.
Just last week Russia won the most important victory by conquering, after four months of bloody battles, the industrial city of Avdiivka, in the Donetsk Republic, a puppet created by the Russians next to the border with Russia, in eastern Ukraine.
Information about deaths and injuries varies greatly depending on the source concerned.
The
New York Times estimated that the war has caused
half a million deaths and injuries
in two years
.
Three hundred thousand are Russians and two hundred thousand Ukrainians.
These numbers are approximations, but they reveal how the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian troops in the second year of the war, which sought to corner the Russians in the east and south, ended in failure, while the year concludes with the war initiative in hands of Russia.
The end in the last two weeks left thousands dead in the clashes recorded during the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the industrial city of Avdiivka and the forced march to new defensive positions to the west, with the Russians behind.
Destruction in Mariupol, one of the cities most besieged by Russia at the beginning of the war, in 2022. Photo: AP
The figures of the war
The anniversary invites balance.
On the Ukrainian side, an official report indicates that Russia lost in these first two years of the war 6,516 tanks, 9,826 artillery systems, 902 multiple launch rocket systems, 338 aircraft, 678 air defense systems, 325 helicopters, 7,600 drones and 25 warships in the Black Sea.
The data is incomplete and partial.
The Ukrainians did not give numbers for their own losses.
The data serves to give an idea of the magnitude of the war material used and the effort to replace and renew it.
Europe has just approved new aid and
is studying more sanctions against Russia
, against the background of growing skepticism in public opinion in the 27 countries of the European Union, which are an alarming sign of the growing desire to loosen the reins of enthusiasm and the investment of billions of dollars in favor of the Ukrainian cause, which had its times of splendor in the two years that passed.
The Europeans also have to replace their own considerable weapons that were derived to help Ukraine more quickly.
Polls show that
only 10% of Europeans currently believe that Russia will be defeated.
Russia, on the other hand, enters the third year of the war with a significant increase in its capacity to supply the war effort and has
largely managed to overcome the economic blows
caused by Western sanctions.
The Russian economy has stopped gasping, it has balanced out. In an interview this week, President Putin exclaimed that Russia is the fastest growing economy in Europe.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted the strength of the Russian economy and improved its growth forecast for 2024 from 1.1% to 2.6%.
According to the IMF, the Russian economy grew faster than the entire Group of Seven (the world's most industrialized powers) last year and will do so again in 2024. Russia's has been transformed into a
mobilized war economy
.
Military spending represents up to 40% of the budget and has reached the final levels of the Soviet Union era.
Other areas have been reduced to finance war production.
A Ukrainian soldier prepares to launch a drone, near Avdiivka.
Photo: REUTERS
Russian oil and gas flows are supported by a production that in the case of oil is almost ten million barrels per day.
Hundreds of Russian oil tankers travel the world, heading for example to India and China.
Many transactions are carried out in Chinese yuan.
North American President Joe Biden announced that new sanctions against the Russians are being studied.
In large part due to the war in Ukraine and also in response to the suspicious death of Alexei Navalny, leader of the opposition to Vladimir Putin, in a Siberian prison beyond the Arctic Circle.
Other wars and fear in the world
Diplomatic problems between the great powers are expanding along with the spread of
new wars
and military clashes, especially due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas that has led to a
dangerous crisis
, with Iran being behind Arab countries and groups from the beginning. enemies of Israel and the mobilization of guerrillas that Iran has launched to attack in an area of the Middle East and the Red Sea that can further inflame the outbreak in a wide region.
Iran also exports weapons to the Russians and as the relationship grows, a conflict with the United States will become more possible, which already does not tolerate Iranian interference in the Israel-Hamas war.
The relationship between the US and Russia deteriorates.
The last of several was a comment by President Biden who called the Russian president a “crazy son of a bitch” before a group of journalists with whom he was speaking.
He had recently launched other "compliments" in a similar talk against Vladimir Putin, calling him a "butcher" and a "war criminal."
Putin remains unperturbed and enjoys his victorious path that has eliminated his greatest opponent, Navalny, who died under very suspicious circumstances.
He is marching towards the practically certain conquest, due to lack of rivals, of the
third re-election as president
of the Russian republic in the general elections in March.
From his position of strength, Putin declared that it is not in his plans to invade any other country, while Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, the three small Baltic republics that were under the Soviet yoke from 1940 to 1991, say they have no doubt that If Russia devours the Ukrainian dish, they will be "next on the list."
The reality is that the world has entered a phase of growing instability that seems to justify the fears of analysts who believe that the new decade will be more dangerous due to the accumulation of conflicts and the crises that the main protagonists are suffering.
The United States is the case that worries the most.
Two elders, old rivals, President Biden and former President Donald Trump, will face off in the November election and both offer
fragile positions on their leadership.
Europeans who are in NATO, the Western military defense alliance, and in the European Union, suffer deeply from the specific threat posed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The vast majority have rapidly increased their contribution to reach the promised 2% of their internal income to finance NATO.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asks the West for more weapons.
Photo: AFP
Biden assures that there will soon be new sanctions against Russia, but there is no mention of the 300 billion dollars that were deposited by the Russians in Western banks and have remained dormant.
The Europeans suggest getting their hands on that treasure, allocating it to helping the Ukrainians.
But this is a topic covered in veils.
In Ukraine “the situation is extremely complex.”
This is stated by General Oleksandr Syrsky, appointed a few months ago as the new commander-in-chief of the army by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who got rid of the popular previous military leader by sending him to retirement.
On the 1,500-kilometer east-south front, Russian attacks show increasing use of Islander ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
Aerial bombing in the Battle of Avdivka has dropped 250 and 500 kilo bombs that have wreaked havoc on the Ukrainian ranks.
This week the Russians increased the pressure with a raid on Kharkov in the east, as well as attacks on Kherson in the south, which was bombed.
To add to concerns,
The New York Times
spread the story that the Russians hope to launch a nuclear weapon into orbit this year.
In addition, a hypersonic missile capable of reaching a speed of 9,800 kilometers per hour would be regularly launched in the Ukrainian theater.
C.B.