As of: February 24, 2024, 7:43 p.m
By: Philipp Keßler
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Press
Split
It is the second anniversary of the Russian attack on Ukraine, and the armed conflict in the embattled east of the country has already lasted a decade.
It is the second anniversary of the Russian attack on Ukraine, and the armed conflict in the embattled east of the country has already lasted a decade.
Jonas Driedger, research associate at the Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research and currently substitute professor of political science at the Goethe University Frankfurt, assumes that the Ukraine war could last for a long time.
He assesses the situation and four future scenarios for our media group.
The current war situation: “Ukraine is in trouble,” says Driedger.
Because: The major offensive announced last year failed.
There are several reasons for this: Firstly, Ukraine did not receive the quantities of weapons and ammunition that it would have liked, which meant that it was not able to make optimal use of the allies' reconnaissance data.
Secondly, they wanted to gain territory in three places at the same time, instead of holding positions in two and tying up enemy forces and breaking through in one.
This strategy was rightly controversial then and now.
The assessments of Russian strength also play a role here, where the mobilization of resources was stronger than some people thought.
Thirdly, it is fundamentally much easier to defend yourself than to attack.
“In the end, war is like dancing – there are always at least two parties that are moving.” Currently, the initiative lies with Russia, which is making smaller territorial gains and is also increasingly bombing Ukrainian cities.
Scenario I – Ukrainian offensive: According to Driedger, a Ukrainian breakthrough in the war is “highly unlikely” in the short and medium term.
This is because two things are crucial in war: “How much material and how many people do you have available and how badly do you want success.” Ukraine does receive support, but in terms of soldiers and possible recruits the reserves are more than four times smaller than those of Russia.
Scenario II - Russian Offensive: If Western aid to Ukraine does not change or is only reduced moderately, Driedger does not believe that Russian troops will be able to conquer significant areas, even if Russia still has considerable reserves.
Ceasefire or peace in the Ukrainian war - an unlikely scenario
According to Driedger, the central question is how willing Russia is to further escalate the war, including in terms of domestic politics.
“Russian society is anything but bellicose, and the regime pays a lot of attention to the sensitivities in its own country,” says the conflict researcher.
Scenario III - Military stalemate: The most likely scenario for Driedger is a deadlocked front in which small changes are constantly being recorded and positions in the rear are also being attacked.
“The only question is whether there will continue to be intensive fighting or whether – even without agreement – situations will arise in which people are ready to fight but no one is shooting anymore.
“That would be a cold war, so to speak,” explains Driedger.
Scenario IV - Armistice or peace: The problem with the topic of negotiations is that both warring parties have not yet moved away from their maximum goals: Russia wants to at least keep the annexed areas, Ukraine wants all occupied areas back.
“It is a finding in research that is sad from a peace perspective: as soon as conflicts are about territory and this becomes ideologically charged, it is very difficult to resolve them,” says Driedger.
According to him, possible negotiation paths could be to demilitarize contested areas and have them administered more in trust, or to equip Ukraine with military deterrent potential on the one hand, but to impose a moratorium on Western ties in the EU and NATO on the other.
However, this would probably have to be done through mediation by non-involved states, such as China, Brazil or South Africa.
Conclusion: “Ukraine will continue to fight with Russia and with itself,” is Driedger’s forecast.
And even if the conflict comes to an end – militarily or not – he warns of long-term consequences: “Conflicts over territory with high human losses leave deep scars in societies.
Such experiences influence politics for generations.”