By The Associated Press -
AP
The future looks bleak for war-weary Ukraine: it is beset by shortages of soldiers and ammunition, as well as doubts about the arrival of Western aid.
kyiv's troops also face a Russian enemy that has just taken the initiative on the battlefield.
Two years after the full-scale Russian invasion captured about a quarter of the country, kyiv could no longer be played.
After a series of victories in the first year of the conflict, fortunes have changed for Ukrainian troops, who are entrenched and outgunned and outnumbered by a more powerful rival.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed Western leaders to kyiv on Saturday who arrived to commemorate the second anniversary of the Russian invasion.
Zelenskyy posted a video from Hostomel airfield with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. .
"Two years ago, here, we confronted enemy forces with fire; two years later, we met with our friends and partners," Zelenskyy said.
[“If I have to die here, it will be a pride to leave my blood on this land,” says Chilean fighter in Ukraine]
Russia still controls about a quarter of the country after Ukraine failed to live up to expectations with its summer counteroffensive, which failed to make much progress.
Meanwhile, millions of Ukrainians continue to live in precarious circumstances in the crossfire of battles, and many others face the constant problems of the Russian occupation.
The majority is still waiting for a Ukrainian liberation that does not come.
What is the situation?
Victories have turned their backs on Ukraine along the winding front line in the east of the country.
With Russia gaining the upper hand, shortages on the rise, and a major reorganization of the military leadership still fresh, doubts abound about whether kyiv will be able to move forward.
"As things stand, neither side has won. Neither side has lost. Neither side is close to surrendering
. And both sides have virtually exhausted the human and material resources with which they started the war," said Gen. Richard Barrons. , a British military officer who co-chairs a defense consultancy.
Ukraine suffered setbacks after its long-awaited summer counteroffensive failed to make significant progress.
Its armed forces adopted a defensive posture in the fall to repel Moscow's new advances.
On February 17, Russian troops took control of the disputed town of Avdiivka, where kyiv forces were under constant fire from the Russians, who approached from three flanks.
Away from the battlefield, Ukraine has had success in the Black Sea, using long-range weapons to attack military installations in Crimea and maritime drones to sink Russian warships.
kyiv has disabled a third of the Russian fleet in the area, according to the Atlantic Council.
[Congressmen present new bipartisan proposal for aid to Ukraine that includes funds for border security]
Ukraine is seeking to acquire more long-range missiles to carry out higher-range attacks on Russian-occupied territory, a move that many European countries fear could lead to escalation by the Kremlin.
How many have died?
Both Russia and Ukraine have tried to keep casualty figures secret.
Since the beginning of the invasion, few details have emerged about casualties in the Ukrainian Army, but it is clear that tens of thousands of civilians have lost their lives.
Since the start of the war, more than two million Ukrainian children have left the country and at least 528 have died, Olena Zelenska, Zelenskyy's wife, said on Saturday.
In 2023, the first independent statistical analysis of Russian deaths concluded that nearly 50,000 had died in the war.
Two independent media outlets in the country, Mediazona and Meduza, worked with a statistician from the German University of Tübingen to analyze the government data.
Ukrainian soldiers in a photo from February 14, 2024.Vlada Liberova / Libkos via Getty Images
Missing soldiers and ammunition
The Ukrainian Army has an average personnel shortage of 25% across all its brigades, according to lawmakers.
Without more soldiers, Ukrainian defensive lines will be overwhelmed and more vulnerable to Russian attacks.
Many commanders cannot give their troops enough rest, and Russia has recently increased the pace of its attacks.
As a result, soldiers are tired — and wounded more easily — which makes the situation worse.
The Ukrainian General Staff noted that
between 450,000 and 500,000 new recruits are needed
for the next phase of the war.
Even if Ukraine manages to mobilize all those people, something unlikely, it would still not be able to match the number of troops of Russia, which has almost three times the population.
If left unaddressed, ammunition shortages will also jeopardize Ukraine's ability to hold territory and keep its troops alive.
Ukraine depends on its Western allies and international organizations not only militarily, but also for financial and humanitarian aid.
Without Western support, Ukraine will not have the weapons, ammunition and training it needs to continue its war effort, nor will it be able to keep its battered economy afloat or reach citizens caught in the crossfire.
In the US Congress, Republicans have stalled a $60 billion military aid package for kyiv, crucial in the short term.
The EU recently approved a 50 billion euro (about $54 billion) initiative.
In the humanitarian field, the United Nations and its agencies stated that if the $3.1 billion requested from donors is not met this year, they will not be able to cover the basic needs of the 8.5 million Ukrainians living on the front lines.